Leeds vs West Ham prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats

Leeds vs West Ham prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
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Leeds welcome West Ham to Elland Road on Friday night, with the floodlights, the noise, and the tension that comes with a scrap near the bottom of the table.

It’s been a patchy start to life back in the Premier League, but under Daniel Farke, Leeds have rediscovered some of the identity they’d lost.

The atmosphere here this season has been ferocious, arguably the best in years. Leeds have fed off that intensity, flying out of the blocks and bullying teams who can’t match their tempo.

That aggression has earned them points against Everton, Newcastle and Bournemouth, and it’ll be their biggest weapon again under the lights.

West Ham arrive needing a reaction but looking fragile. Monday’s defeat to Brentford drained more than just points — they looked flat, short on legs, and beaten before full-time.

Nuno Espírito Santo hasn’t found his best mix yet. He’s tinkered with full-backs, left creative players out, and shifted shapes, but little has stuck.

West Ham’s lack of athleticism through midfield and the flanks remains a glaring weakness, and it’s one Leeds will target from the first whistle.

Farke, for his part, has decisions of his own. Lucas Perri could replace Karl Darlow in goal for more control, while Jaka Bijol, Ao Tanaka and Dan James all push to return.

If Leeds can bring their usual energy with those reinforcements, they’ll fancy their chances of overwhelming a side feeling sorry for itself.

Leeds team news

Lucas Perri is pushing to start, with Karl Darlow’s recent numbers (-2.7xG prevented) underscoring why a change is needed.

There are calls for Jaka Bijol to replace Pascal Struijk in defence, while Dan James offers direct width after coming off the bench at Burnley.

Ao Tanaka is also in contention, adding more creativity to a midfield that has looked flat in recent weeks.

Ethan Ampadu and Struijk have battled illness, while Wilfried Gnonto and Noah Okafor remain major doubts.

How to watch Leeds vs West Ham

Leeds United vs West Ham United kicks off at 20:00 BST on Friday, October 24, at Elland Road.

The match will be broadcast live in the UK on Sky Sports Main Event and Premier League, with coverage starting from 7pm.

BBC Radio 5 Live will provide full match commentary.

Leeds expected line-up

(4-3-3) Perri; Bogle, Rodon, Bijol, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Tanaka, Stach; James, Calvert-Lewin, Aaronson

West Ham team news

Konstantinos Mavropanos is out with a muscle injury. Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Malick Diouf are expected to return at full-back.

Tomas Soucek is set for his 200th Premier League appearance and should start alongside Andrew Irving in midfield.

Niclas Füllkrug remains sidelined, so Callum Wilson should lead the line, supported by Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá, and Crysencio Summerville.

The Irving–Soucek pairing offers some structure but may be sorely lacking in other areas.

West Ham expected line-up

(4-2-3-1) Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Kilman, Diouf; Irving, Soucek; Bowen, Paquetá, Summerville; Wilson.

Leeds vs West Ham stats

– Leeds have won two of their eight Premier League matches this season (D2 L4), collecting eight points to sit 16th.

– Leeds have averaged 13 shots per game, the highest rate by a promoted side since their own 2020–21 campaign.

– Their conversion rate of 6.7% is the lowest on record for the club in a league season.

– Karl Darlow has prevented –2.7 xG from shots on target faced, the second-worst among Premier League goalkeepers.

– West Ham have four points from eight matches (W1 D1 L6), marking their worst-ever start to a Premier League season.

– West Ham have been losing for 48% of their league minutes this season and winning for only 3% – the lowest in the division.

– West Ham have conceded eight of their 18 goals from set pieces, the highest total in the league.

Leeds vs West Ham predictions

Neither side has found rhythm in front of goal. Leeds have scored just seven times in eight matches, while West Ham sit near the bottom of the table with six.

The expected goals data projects a 1-1 draw, and with both managers under pressure, caution may outweigh ambition.

For that reason, we’ll take a chance on backing under 2.5 goals, even though Leeds games are producing more goals than bookmakers expected.

Leeds’ home matches have averaged just under nine corners, but West Ham’s away games are among the most open in the division, averaging over 14.

With both sides short on goals and looking to play down the flanks, corners should follow.

Farke’s team often push full-backs high at Elland Road, while Nuno’s side concede plenty from wide deliveries.

Over 10.5 corners is better than even money and looks worth chancing.

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