The Six Nations is a cruel mistress. Two days before the tournament started for Scotland, Gregor Townsend said this was the strongest playing group of his tenure. Two days later, one bad half of rugby, some abysmal weather and he is facing calls for his head. If you take your eye off the ball in this competition for half an hour on the field your campaign can be over for another 12 months.
England will know that heading to Murrayfield. They only need to reflect on their last visit to Edinburgh. They began with a bang but Scotland seized momentum and England just couldn’t get it back, whatever they tried. Make no mistake, however, Steve Borthwick’s side know what is at stake on Saturday. Pull off a first victory in Edinburgh for six years and there will be conversations about going all the way. They will not be public conversations, but I’ve been in squads and camps before and when the opportunity for silverware is genuine, you cannot help but discuss it.
The key is to make sure it does not become a burden because, with the weight of history, there is enough pressure on the match as it is. It is easier to cope with, though, when on the kind of winning run that England arrive on. Without disrespecting Argentina, that run may not include a major victory on away soil but the scars of defeat do not run deep for this side, and that makes imposing your game in hostile environments that much easier.
It’s easy to talk about process – you won’t find a coach in the game who will not talk about it – but it’s so much easier to buy into when you’re getting the desired outcome, and so much harder to stick to when you are not. Borthwick will respect Scotland and expect the best version of Townsend’s side, but he will want his players engaged from the moment they arrive at the stadium. If England get their game on the pitch for long enough they will win.
I’m optimistic on the basis of what I saw against Wales. There are no surprises in the team selection and I can’t remember the last time Borthwick had to drop someone because they didn’t perform. That is a position of strength to be selecting from. If he makes changes it is because he believes they give him the best chance of winning the match but there hasn’t been a controversial call of note for a while now. He might have put Ollie Lawrence back in, but the fact that he didn’t still makes perfect sense.
And I love the fact he has swapped his hookers. Scotland need a response after last week and their physicality is often questioned so I have no doubt that they will start in an abrasive manner, throwing everything they have at England. Luke Cowan-Dickie brings a more physical edge and Jamie George can bring his 100-plus caps of experience from the bench. He is one of the best lineout operators in world rugby and that will be crucial given how past matches at Murrayfield have got away from England in the final quarter.
Much has been made of the Murrayfield factor and I can say it is one of the most atmospheric stadiums in the world. Personally, I found it incredible, even inspiring. The supporters buy into it, the anthems are spine-tingling but my message to England players who have never played there is to embrace it. I’ve been retired for a while now but I’m so glad I got to represent my country at Murrayfield.
For Scotland there’s a sense of desperation. If they are to derail England’s title bid they must start fast, win the breakdown battle and demonstrate tactical discipline. That has arguably been the most impressive aspect of England’s game recently. They have the patience to wait for their moment. Against Wales, George Ford was happy to send the ball back, look for grass, and patiently wait for the right opportunity to strike.
Scotland have the firepower which is best illustrated by the number of British & Irish Lions backs at their disposal, including those who Townsend has left out. They have a world-class centre partnership in Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones and Finn Russell will pull the strings at fly-half. But if Scotland cannot display tactical discipline, it might be a long afternoon for them.
