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Manchester City are looking to complete a historic comeback when they take on Real Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie.
City are trailing 3-0 on aggregate following the first leg at the Bernabeu when Federico Valverde stole the show with a first-half hat-trick.
The margin of victory could have been greater, but City goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma saved Vinicius Junior’s penalty early in the second half.
Following that game, City then lost ground on Arsenal in the Premier League title race by drawing 1-1 away at West Ham United.
They are now nine points behind Arsenal, although they do have a game in hand and will also welcome the Gunners to the Etihad next month.
Madrid were able to keep pressure on Barcelona in their title race by winning 4-1 at home to Elche, which leaves them four points behind the LaLiga leaders.
How to watch Man City vs Real Madrid
Man City v Real Madrid kicks off at 20:00 GMT on Tuesday, March 17 at the Etihad. The game will be shown live on Amazon Prime Video, with coverage starting from 18:30.
BBC Radio 5 Live will provide full match commentary.
Man City team news
Following five months out with an ankle injury, Mateo Kovacic was named on the substitutes’ bench against West Ham at the weekend.
The Croatia international remained an unused substitute against the Hammers, but could make his return against his former club.
His compatriot Josko Gvardiol has been sidelined since suffering a tibial fracture on his right leg in early January, while Rico Lewis is yet to recover from an ankle injury.
Savinho and John Stones were both left out of the squad against West Ham, with the winger dealing with a hamstring injury and the centre-back picking up an ankle injury in training.
But the injuries have been described as minor and they are expected to be in the squad to face Real Madrid.
Man City expected line-up
(4-3-3) Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Rodri, O’Reilly, Bernardo; Semenyo, Haaland, Cherki
Real Madrid team news
Real Madrid have been boosted by the return of Kylian Mbappe after the France international missed their last five games with a sprain in his left knee.
David Alaba and former Manchester United left-back Alvaro Carreras have been out with calf injuries, but they are also back in the Madrid squad.
While Jude Bellingham is with the squad in England, the midfielder is yet to recover from a hamstring injury and won’t feature at the Etihad.
Eder Militao and Ferland Mendy are also sidelined with hamstring injuries, and fellow defender Raul Ascencio will miss the game with a muscle issue.
Dani Ceballos is still struggling with a calf injury and Rodrygo is a long-term absentee, having ruptured both his ACL and meniscus.
Real Madrid expected line-up
(4-4-2) Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras; Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Guler; Diaz, Vinicius Jr
Man City vs Real Madrid stats
– Manchester City have lost three of their last four Champions League games against Real Madrid (W1), as many defeats as they suffered against them through their first 12 meetings in the competition (W4 D5 L3).
– Real Madrid are looking to eliminate Manchester City from the Champions League knockout stages for a fifth time (previously in 2015-16, 2021-22, 2023-24 and 2024-25); only Bayern Munich have been eliminated by an opponent on more than five occasions in the knockout stages of the competition (7 v Real Madrid).
– Real Madrid have won the first leg of a two-legged knockout stage tie by three or more goals on 36 occasions in major European competition – no side has ever eliminated them in the second leg in that scenario.
– Before this season’s last 16, there have been 51 occasions of a team losing the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie by three or more goals. Just four of those have progressed to the next round.
– Pep Guardiola hasn’t seen his side progress from a Champions League knockout stage tie after losing the first leg since the 2014-15 quarter-finals with Bayern Munich (7-4 on aggregate v FC Porto), failing to advance in each of the five instances since then, and in all three with current club Manchester City.
– Guardiola will take charge of his 191st Champions League match here, overtaking Sir Alex Ferguson’s total in the competition.
– If City don’t knock Madrid out, Guardiola would fail to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League in back-to-back seasons for the first time in his managerial career.
– Alvaro Arbeloa is looking to become the first Real Madrid manager to win each of his four Champions League knockout stage matches.
– Along with scoring all three of his team’s goals in the 3-0 win, Fede Valverde completed more dribbles (4), won more duels (11) and made more tackles (4) than any other Real Madrid player in the first leg against Manchester City last week.
– Erling Haaland didn’t attempt a shot in the first leg of this tie against Real Madrid; just the second time in his Champions League career where he hasn’t had at least one.
Man City vs Real Madrid predictions
City have had some great Champions League nights at the Etihad, including a 4-0 win against Real Madrid in the 2022-23 semi-final.
But they’ve since won just one of their last six games against the Spanish giants, and we think the second leg will be a close contest. That points us toward Madrid +2 on the Asian handicap at 4/5.
While Madrid will defend in numbers, they have pace on the counter and one goal for the visitors would leave City needing to score four just to force extra time.
City have kept just one clean sheet in their last six games in all competitions, and we’re backing both teams to score at 4/6.
Including his hat-trick against City, Valverde has now scored five goals in his last three appearances. He’s 7/1 to score anytime.
Mbappe may have to initially settle for a place on the bench following his return from injury, but he can have a big impact in a small cameo. He’s 13/2 to be the last goalscorer.
