Updated ,first published
San Francisco: With the final group stage matches underway, Australia’s chances of progressing through to the knock-out stages will fluctuate with every goal. But the situation remains that their World Cup fate is very much in their own hands.
Australia will play at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Friday (12pm, AEST), knowing exactly what they need to do to make it through to the knockout stages. Sports analytics company Opta currently has them as a 92 per cent chance of making the round of 32.
This is what each potential result would mean for the Socceroos’ chances of progressing to the round of 32.
Socceroos win
If Australia beat Paraguay, the Socceroos would finish on six points in Group D and in second spot. The US, already on six points, have already topped the group regardless of whether they lose to Turkey in the final group match. That is because, for the first time at a World Cup, FIFA is using head-to-head records instead of goal difference as the primary tiebreaker for teams level on points. The US’s win over the Socceroos in Seattle means Australia can finish no higher than second.
What next: A second-place finish would have Australia play their round of 32 match in Dallas on July 4 (AEST) against the runner-up of Group G. Belgium is currently second in Group G after being held to draws in their matches against Iran and Egypt – the Europeans to play New Zealand in their final match. The other match is Egypt versus Iran, and it is possible that any team in this group could finish second. The Socceroos have never met Egypt or Belgium at a major tournament, and Australia’s last match against Iran was that heartbreaking defeat in the World Cup qualifier at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in 1997.
Socceroos draw
Australia only needs a point to secure the second spot. Paraguay, like Australia, have three points at present, so both sides would finish equal on four points. The draw also would mean the head-to-head tiebreaker couldn’t split the sides, so it would go back to goal difference – and with Australia having a superior tally, the Socceroos would finish second.
What next: The same scenario as if we win – the round of 32 game in Dallas against Group G’s second-place getter.
Socceroos lose
Even with a loss, Australia cannot finish lower than third in Group D. If Turkey manages to win against the US and picks up three points, they would still sit below the Socceroos based on the head-to-head record after Australia’s 2-0 win in Vancouver in the opening round.
Australia’s progression would then depend on a series of results in various games across the other 11 groups. The tournament’s 48-team expansion means the eight best-performing third-placed sides out of the 12 groups progress to the round of 32. Would the Socceroos’ three points – after a win and two losses – be enough to get through? Quite possibly.
After the opening round of the tournament, leading analytics company Opta’s supercomputer ran 100,000 simulations of the remaining group stage fixtures and found that 66.7 per cent of the time, three points were enough for a team to go through.
How bad Australia’s defeat was to Paraguay would have an impact. The Socceroos now have a goal difference of zero – so a loss would push that into the negative. If they were defeated by one goal, Opta says the likelihood of Australia progressing would actually be 84.2 per cent. However, if they lost by two, it drops to 64.3 per cent; at three goals, it becomes 41.8 per cent, and so on.
What next: If they scrape through in third, their opponent and venue for their round of 32 match are not as clear. As things now stand, the most likely scenario is a trip to Boston, where they would play Germany, who have already clinched top place in Group E, on June 30. The other possibilities include a trip to New York (well, MetLife Stadium in New Jersey) to play the winner of Group I – most likely France – on July 1, or heading to Kansas City on July 4 to play the winner of Group K. That group is likely to be topped by either Portugal or Colombia.
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Nick Ralston is the deputy editor and investigations editor for The Sydney Morning Herald. He has previously spent time as news editor, justice editor and world editor.Connect via X or email.
