If Josh Fraser lifts the resurgent Blues into the finals, Carlton will need to trade to collect enough points to net father-son prospect Cody Walker if their rivals bid on him at pick No.1.
If the Blues don’t make the top 10, they will have enough assets in their hands to add him to the list regardless of when the bid arrives, although they would need to go into deficit.
That binary equation is not quite the full story, but it’s close enough.
Many variables will determine the exact price the Blues will have to pay for Walker, the son of 2003 No.2 pick Andrew, at November’s national draft under rules announced in April that will make it harder for clubs to land priority talent.
Making the finals in 2026 will cause the Blues to twist and contort, and trade, much more than if they miss.
Based on current ladder positions, Carlton have pick No.7 (1795 Draft Value Index points) and No.17 (879 DVI points), one of the future first-round picks they gained from Sydney when trading Charlie Curnow.
Because clubs can only use two draft selections to match a bid, that gives the Blues 2674 DVI points. If the bid arrives at pick No.1, they need to match 3000 points, minus the 10 per cent discount the clubs that finish outside the top 10 receive.
That leaves the Blues needing 2700 points. They would go into deficit a mere 26 DVI points to grab Walker, who would have cost them a pretty reasonable price of two first-round selections.
However, if the Blues – who have a tough run home after Saturday night’s clash with Richmond – scrape into 10th place, lose their first final and the bid for Walker comes at pick No.1, their situation becomes much more difficult.
They lose the discount, meaning they would need 3000 DVI points.
Tenth spot would give them 1276 DVI points plus (if we imagine Sydney are runners-up) the 879 points for the Swans’ pick, leaving them with 2155 points. Clubs’ allowable draft deficit is 412 points, which would only drag the Blues to 2577 points, well short of the 3000 needed.
The Blues would need to go to work in attempting to turn their first two picks into at least 2588 points, which is basically two top-10 selections, or hope like hell teams make the first bid on Port Adelaide’s NGA prospect Dougie Cochrane, and they have to match a bid at pick No.2 or beyond.
Make no mistake, the club that finishes on the bottom has an incentive under the rules to make a bid on a priority-access player, such as Cochrane or Walker, as it will push them down the draft order and trigger their compensation pick at the start of the second round. The Bombers – who sit last – would make the bid to trigger that compensation, ensuring they have pick No.2, and either 20 and 21, or 21 and 22, in the draft.
If a bid was placed on Walker at pick No.1 and Carlton had made finals, they may be able to package up their picks (they have second-rounders tied to Gold Coast and North Melbourne and two first-round picks in 2027 to trade into a high pick), or be forced into the unpalatable situation of hanging a shingle out the front, offering one of their stars for a high pick only.
It’s the sort of shadow that shouldn’t really hang over a club fighting their way out of trouble as the Blues have this season. But it does after the uproar over the northern states being able to access elite talent.
By the time Walker puts on a Blues jumper, they will have used six first-round draft picks to gain three players – Jagga Smith, Harry Dean and Walker. If they finish in the bottom five in 2026, they will also sacrifice the second-round compensation on offer as they will use their pick to match a bid.
The Blues have had one minor win, however. The AFL has agreed that if clubs go into deficit to match a bid, their draft position will be determined before they plug the Tasmanian picks – No.1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13 – into the 2027 national draft.
The Butters equation
If Port Adelaide’s restricted free agent Zak Butters knows what he is doing next season, then he is not telling anyone.
He may yet stay at Alberton but, as each day passes, the expectation he will leave to be closer to family and friends in Victoria grows.
Butters has earned that right and is playing as well as anyone can, despite the speculation around his future.
The other question no one knows the answer to is what the clubs who hope to entice Butters – Collingwood, Geelong, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs – could offer Port Adelaide after the Power matches any offer, which they will.
He is still only 25 (turning 26 in September) and is a chance to win the Brownlow Medal this season, having polled more than 20 votes in each of the past three years.
Carlton received three first-round picks and Will Hayward in exchange for some second-rounders and Charlie Curnow, who had just turned 29 when he lined up for Sydney at the start of the season. Hawthorn offered picks No.10, 22, a future first-round pick and Henry Hustwaite for Zach Merrett.
So, although no deal will leave Port Adelaide satisfied, the potential offers Richmond could make for Butters – compared to those of Geelong, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs – are so different you could argue he would be as well-served to stay two more seasons to qualify as an unrestricted free agent before then making his move.
They could offer pick No.2 and then two first-round picks in the compromised 2027 and 2028 national drafts. Even with Tasmania’s entry, the 2027 pick could remain in the top 10 before the Tigers’ potential march up the ladder in 2028.
That would be close to getting a deal done with quibbling at the edges. Perhaps also throw in a reasonable player to fill a need for Port Adelaide.
Collingwood’s desire to go to the draft would need to be wound back if Butters wanted to get to the club, but that would be understandable for a player of his class.
Pick No.9, then picks edging into the 20s in 2027 and 2028, would not get the job done. A player of, for argument’s sake, Isaac Quaynor’s profile would need to be added to shift the needle.
The Cats are always around the teens when it comes to first-round picks, however they have several quality young players they might include in any package. It’s not the Cats’ style to force a player out to bring one in, although South Australian Dean Gore was sacrificed when Patrick Dangerfield joined.
That leaves the Western Bulldogs, who can also be expected to have first-round selections in the teens unless they find other picks to create a more compelling package. Arthur Jones is out of contract and has some currency in the market, but he would not command a pick on his own to make a deal more palatable. However, the return on him may create enough capital.
The best result for the three clubs, apart from Richmond, would be for Port Adelaide to take the compensation for Butters, which would be pick No.5 based on current ladder position, so he could walk. This won’t happen as it would not be enough.
Port Adelaide have shown themselves to be a club who can reach deals, having been on both the positive side of the ledger when Jason Horne-Francis arrived after one year at North Melbourne, and the negative side when Dan Houston wanted to leave.
The other option for the three potential finalists chasing Butters is to lobby hard to include Tasmania in the trade period, so the picks No.1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13 they have in the 2027 national draft can be deployed to add liquidity to the market, which looks unable to meet demand any more when a star player wants to leave.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.
