Who’d have thought it would be Wests Tigers having a massive impact on this year’s top-four race?
As we all know, no team has won the premiership from outside the top four in the NRL era.
And thanks to the Roosters’ stunning one-point upset loss to the Tigers, I think the Panthers and Warriors are now locked in to finish as the top two. On paper, they should win their last two games of the regular season, so who claims the minor premiership will come down to two things.
The first is points differential. Only Luke Hanson’s last-minute field goal against South Sydney separates them on the ladder right now.
And the other question mark is will Ivan Cleary be tempted to rest his best players against the Tigers in the last game of the season? He and the Panthers will know all the equations, and exactly what they need to secure a home final, because everyone else in the top eight will have already played in round 27.
As for the Roosters, well, haven’t they suddenly piled the pressure on themselves? A week after knocking off Penrith – which has to be their biggest win in years given the Panthers stranglehold on them – the Roosters simply blew it against the Tigers.
Now, they’re hosting the Dolphins on Saturday night in what should be a cracking contest, and I think it will decide who finishes third or fourth.
As for who goes to New Zealand and has to play the Warriors at home, well that’s suddenly out of the Roosters’ hands, because of the Tigers upset. They could hang onto third spot and still end up across the ditch in week one.
Or the Dolphins could draw level on 38 points with them if they get up this weekend. Kristian Woolf’s side also has the potential to really boost their for and against in round 27 when they take on the Titans.
The Tricolours, of course, have South Sydney in the final round. As if that game wasn’t already big enough? Another loss this weekend against the Dolphins, and that fantastic breakthrough against Penrith will feel a long way away for the Tricolours.
Not having Victor Radley (concussion protocols) is underestimated I think by plenty of people. He is so important to the Roosters’ attack as their link man in the middle and a huge absence given he’s likely to be rested for the Rabbitohs clash next week as well.
The joker in the top-four race, even with their underwhelming form of late, is Cronulla. They face Parramatta this week and then host Melbourne at home, and I think they’ll win both of those.
Given the Sharks have a better points differential than the Roosters, the stakes in Saturday’s clash against the Dolphins have been dialled up yet again.
It’s difficult to believe, but there’s still a world where the Roosters could fall as far as fifth before the finals start. And about 7.30pm on Saturday night, we’ll have a better idea what that top four looks like.
But already, I’m looking at that new finals road map, and I think the Warriors and Panthers are in the box seat to meet on grand final day.
Chip on their shoulder: Why the Storm have an edge against Broncos
At the start of the year, most people would have had Brisbane and Melbourne in that top-four battle as well.
It’s amazing to think both grand finalists now have just two games left this year. Injuries have hit hard, particularly for the Storm.
Melbourne have had players in their NRL squad missing for a combined 148 weeks this year, behind only Parramatta (177 weeks). And guys like Eliesa Katoa and Xavier Coates, quality representative players, haven’t played a single minute all season.
On Thursday, I’m expecting plenty of points and the Queenslanders in Melbourne’s ranks to play with a bee in their bonnet. I find they always do when they play against the Broncos. Anyone who didn’t end up playing for that powerhouse club as a kid loves nothing more than beating them as an adult.
Cameron Smith, Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Munster and Harry Grant, they all talk about it, and they all play that way against Brisbane – with a chip on their shoulder. Johnathan Thurston has the biggest chip of the lot, just quietly.
For the Broncos, I’ve really liked what Billy Walters has brought since his return from injury. He’s added a lot with his running and kicking games, and he becomes an even bigger threat if Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan and Xavier Willison can set up a victory again like they did in Canberra.
The question with Brisbane though is that after that breakthrough win, where are their heads at after the past 72 hours? A bit like their whole season, it has just been more drama around Michael Maguire, Adam Reynolds, Ben Hunt, Reece Walsh, social media and all the things you just don’t need around your club.
Given Jahrome Hughes is back for Melbourne, and they are fielding their first-choice spine – an all-too rare sight this season. I’m leaning towards the Storm.
Joey’s tip: Storm by two
First try-scorer: Moses Leo
Man of the match: Cameron Munster
Fight them on the edges: How the Dogs stay alive
Ivan Cleary must still be worried about Blaize Talagi’s defence, given he’s opted for Jack Cole out on the left edge to replace the suspended Jack Cogger.
It would have been a serious test for Talagi to be thrown back in there this week seeing as it is Jacob Preston running down that channel.
The way he and Lachlan Galvin pulled Penrith apart in round six is still some of the best football Canterbury have played all season.
Cogger will be sidelined until the second week of the finals, so you’d think they’ll lock Cole in until then and back Nathan Cleary’s brilliance to get the job done while they’re without Isaah Yeo, Mitch Kenny and Cogger.
The Dogs were strong last week against St George Illawarra and as I said, they’ve got the blueprint from that 32-16 victory over Penrith earlier this year.
Their back-rowers are the key. Preston is such a handful on their right edge, particularly if Matt Burton is running outside him. But Viliame Kikau is also a strike weapon over on the left opposite Cleary, who does have the occasional defensive error in his game.
Nathan can overcommit in defence and be exposed against a ball-runner with good footwork. Some of Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh’s breaks in the 2023 grand final are classic examples (though, of course, we know how that one ended). Kikau is deceptively nimble for a 110-kilogram wrecking ball.
That edge – with Stephen Crichton, Kikau and Bronson Xerri – is Canterbury’s strength. But Liam Martin is more than capable of dishing out some punishment of his own.
The Bulldogs simply have to keep winning to stay in finals contention, and we’re already starting to check the maths on their chances, which is never a good sign. Neither is the fact Tom Dearden and Jeremiah Nanai are coming back for the eighth-placed Cowboys this week.
But I think this Penrith clash will be a real pressure cooker given the stakes for Canterbury and the way they naturally play, which just happens to be the Panthers’ bread and butter.
Cleary just doesn’t get bored in these games of high completion rates, physical defence and kick pressure, and he will be the difference.
Joey’s tip: Panthers by two
First try-scorer: Tom Jenkins
Man of the match: Nathan Cleary
Vale, Sir Billy
Just lastly, I’d like to pay tribute to Sir Billy Boston, one of the game’s great trailblazers, who passed away this week at the age of 92.
Billy scored a lazy 571 tries in 564 games (the second most in history) for Wigan, Wales and Great Britain, and was the first rugby league player honoured with a knighthood.
He was the first non-white player selected to tour for his country, and by all accounts, was a wonderful, gracious man. Vale.
Andrew Johns is an Immortal, a Newcastle great and a commentator for Channel Nine