Key events
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 5-5 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
There’s some apprehension on the second point as Rybakina double faults … before spraying a wild forehand! 15-30. Well, well. Sabalenka is two points from winning the set. And Sablanka produces perhaps her best shot of the match with a bullet of a backhand return winner at full stretch! 15-40 … not only two break points (her first of this set), but two set points. Now it’s Sabalenka’s turn to spray a forehand, so the first SP has gone … and the second vanishes too, when Sabalenka goes all-out on her return and just misses. A wry smile from Sabalenka. But she’s bashing the ball in anger when she can’t cope with Rybakina’s depth of shot at deuce. And Rybakina completes her escape act with a one-two punch! This set is reaching some climax.
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 5-4 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
Having won 23 of her past 24 tie-breaks at grand slam level (including two against the Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in their quarter-final), perhaps Sabalenka thinks her best chance will be to get this set to 6-6 and hopefully take it on the breaker. And she moves a game closer to that, with a second successive hold to love. Her forehand looks steadier, as does her mind, and perhaps Rybakina will start to feel a little tension, knowing she must hold to stay in the second. She hasn’t shown any of that so far in this final, though. She’s been unflinching.
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 4-4 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
But Sabalenka has steadied herself somewhat in this set, and claims a welcome hold to love, to maintain the scoreboard pressure. Maybe that’ll give her a bit more energy to push on Rybakina’s serve … but the soon-to-be world No 1 glides to 40-15. Sabalenka pulls off an unlikely winner on the run, despite losing her balance, but that’s as good as it gets for her, as Rybakina holds to 30.
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 3-3 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
It seems she can at 15-all, when Rybakina hits an inviting ball in the air … it’s ready to be crunched down … but Sabalenka gets her backhand drive volley all wrong. And hangs her head in despair. So it’s 30-15 … and in the blink of an eye game. Navratilova is discussing whether Sabalenka’s nerves have been a problem so far, or if it’s more the quality of Rybakina’s play, and she reckons the latter, as do I. Yes, Sabalenka has beaten Rybakina more than Rybakina has beaten her, leading the head-to-head 10-7, but when Rybakina is fully fit and firing, playing at her absolute peak, I’m not sure anyone can live with her – Sabalenka included.
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 3-2 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
A rare smile from Sabalenka as she comes out on top in a game of cat and mouse for 40-15. She backs that up with a winning drop shot and that’s her most comfortable hold in about 30 minutes. That will have erased some of her frustrations … but can she build on it?
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 2-2 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
“She’s got such easy power, she reminds me of Lindsay Davenport,” notes Navratilova, as Rybakina advances to 30-15 – and very quickly 40-15. And a fourth ace secures the game. Yes she’s got such effortless power, it almost looks as if she’s not trying. Though she most certainly is. Making the world No 1 look so panicked and rushed is no easy feat.
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 2-1 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
Fault lines are appearing on Sabalenka’s side of the court again at 30-all, as she batters a backhand into the net, her footwork off, handing Rybakina a break point. But Rybakina’s return loops long. Deuce. Sabalenka tries to take matters into her own hands on the next point, charging to the net, but Rybakina rips an attempted pass, and while Sabalenka gets her racket to it (just), she can’t get the ball back into play! Advantage Rybakina, a second BP. She shows immense courage under Rybakina’s fire to save it. And, buoyed by that, Sabalenka holds. She’s roaring and fist-pumping, and only time will tell how crucial that hold turns out to be. Rybakina is now only 1/7 on break points.
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 1-1 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
That was only the second set Sabalenka has conceded this tournament – the other was in her quarter-final against the Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova – but Sabalenka will, at least, remind herself that she came from a set down to win the 2023 Australian Open final against Rybakina, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. And she’s down, quite literally, in this game, as she loses her footing at 40-30, which allows Rybakina to secure the hold.
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 1-0 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
Sabalenka leaves the court briefly before the second set starts, and she’ll be desperately hoping that Rybakina can’t maintain this level for another set. It appears that way as an errant forehand from Rybakina helps Sabalenka to 40-15 on serve, but another beautiful backhand strike from Rybakina and it’s 40-30. Sabalenka edges through from there.
The most surprising stat from that set, given how impressive Rybakina was, is that she landed only 28% (!) of first serves. But she did win 88% of those points – and crucially 64% of points on Sabalenka’s second serve. And Sabalenka hasn’t been able to keep up with the pace of Rybakina’s groundstrokes; she’s being rushed and overpowered, especially on Rybakina’s backhand.
Rybakina wins the first set 6-4
An inauspicious start from Rybakina as she slips 0-15 down … but Sabalenka snatches at her backhand return on the second point and it’s 15-all. Rybakina then shows Sabalenka how it’s done on the backhand with a huge hit for 30-15 … but perhaps there are a few nerves as she double faults! She can’t land her first serve on the next point either … does her second .. Sabalenka gets the ball into play … but then inexplicably nets a forehand on her next shot! She’s not only fighting her opponent but the ball right now. So Rybakina has set point at 40-30 … and Sabalenka slams an inside-in forehand into the corner to save it! After so many short, sharp points, the longest rally of the match plays out at nine shots, and Rybakina nails a backhand winner. Set point No 2. Rybakina is well on top … sending a desperate Sabalenka this way and that … and Sabalenka eventually decides she’s had enough and hits long! That was a lights-out set by Rybakina, but, in true Rybakina style, she barely celebrates.
First set: Sabalenka 4-5 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
With Sabalenka serving to stay in the set, she does, though, belligerently hold to 15, angrily smacking down a third ace in the process. Back to you, Elena …
First set: Sabalenka* 3-5 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
“Hi Katy,” emails Kerrith Britland. “The reassurance of having a great serve is the difference here. Sabalenka seems a bit edgy already, and feeling like you’re behind in a point before it’s even begun is a claustrophobic place. Rybakina in two.” Yes, Sabalenka is struggling to breathe here. If she doesn’t land her first serve, Rybakina is jumping all over her second, and Rybakina, under less pressure on her own serve, has more energy to go for the kill on Sabalenka’s. That said, Sabalenka does, at least, get to deuce on Rybakina’s serve for the first time here, as Sharapova, Sabatini and Capriati look on approvingly from the stands, but she can’t make any further inroads. And Sabalenka is berating herself once more. Maybe she needs that trio to come on to court and help her out – with Rybakina in this form, 4 v 1 may make this a fair contest.
First set: Sabalenka 3-4 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
After 25 minutes, Rybakina makes her first unforced error. Though given the weight of Sabalenka’s shot, let’s call it a forced unforced error. She still has a point for the double break at 30-40 though … but can’t capitalise. And Sabalenka survives. Though she still looks absolutely furious with her predicament.
First set: Sabalenka* 2-4 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
15-0, 30-0, 40-0. Game. Rybakina’s still on zero unforced errors. This reminds me of the opening set Roger Federer played in the 2004 final against Lleyton Hewitt, probably the greatest set of tennis I’ve ever seen live. Nevermind a watermelon, he saw the ball like a beachball that day. Sabalenka has been left reeling by Rybakina’s pace and is basically being out-Sabalenkaed.
Rybakina breaks: Sabalenka 2-3 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
Sabalenka is blown off the baseline as Rybakina’s return comes back at her before she’s even had a chance to set herself properly. So it’s 15-30 for the second successive Sabalenka service game. Sabalenka comes back for 30-all, but loses her balance again when attempting a cross-court backhand. “Rybakina’s seeing the ball like a watermelon right now,” says an admiring Navratilova. And Sabalenka, all too aware of that, goes for too much on a second serve and surrenders the first break with a double fault! Sabalenka angrily swats the ball halfway to Manhattan, and receives a code violation for ball abuse. She’ll need to be on her best behaviour now, otherwise she’ll receive a point deduction. But her biggest concern right now is the way Rybakina is playing.
First set: Sabalenka* 2-2 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
Spike Lee and Pink are also in attendance. I wonder if they’ve bumped any of the influencers up into the nosebleed seats. But in more important matters, at 15-all, Sabalenka opens up the court with a sliced forehand, before striding forwards to put away the short ball. 15-30 .. the first points she’s won on Rybakina’s serve. So Rybakina does what Rybakina does, calmly and smoothly serving her way to 40-30, before securing the game when Sabalenka nets. Four games in, Rybakina is yet to hit an unforced error and has six winners. It’s fairly flawless, but she’ll just wish she had a break to show for her work too.
First set: Sabalenka 2-1 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
It’ll be interesting to see which player the crowd sides with in this final. Sabalenka wears her heart on her sleeve more, so perhaps that’ll get the fans behind her, though as she’s the two-time defending champion and Rybakina is almost the challenger (even though she’s the incoming world No 1), that could get the supporters more in Rybakina’s corner. At the moment they’re loudly applauding Rybakina’s hitting, who’s managing to land the first strike more often than not, and a ripping pass brings up 15-40, the first break points! Sabalenka saves the first with a snarling forehand down the line … and the second with another clean winner! Wow. Already this is breathless hitting from both players. But Sabalenka can’t find a first serve in this game … and at deuce she can’t find a second serve either as she double faults. So a third break point … and Sabalenka repels this one too with an overhead backed up by a winning volley! And from a second deuce Sabalenka holds, sealing the game with her first ace. She’s fist-pumping and C’MONING like this is the third set rather than the third game.
First set: Sabalenka* 1-1 Rybakina (*denotes next server)
Sabalenka smacks a forehand into the net on the opening point, and her defences break down on the second, with Rybakina pummelling Sabalenka’s backhand. And Rybakina’s serve is too hot for Sabalenka to handle from 30-0, with the Belarusian firing one return long and another into the net. So Rybakina has seen Sabalenka’s opening service game and raised it with a love hold.
First set: Sabalenka 1-0 Rybakina* (*denotes next server)
Ready? Let’s play. Sabalenka puts down the hammer right from the off with an unreturned serve. 15-0. The second point is longer … and Rybakina rams a backhand down the line … which Sabalenka can only frame into the stands! Two points in and we’ve already seen the firepower on show, between the two biggest hitters in the women’s game. Another unreturned serve moves Sabelenka to 30-15 … and another backhand winner – this one cross-court – gets Rybakina back on level terms once more! But from there Sabalenka holds, finishing the game with a cute drop shot, just to remind us that she does boast a bit more variety than Rybakina. A high-quality start.
Tik, tok, tik, tok, the players warming up, so we’ve got time for some style notes. Sabalenka is once again wearing her basketball-inspired orange mesh dress, which is accessorised by several hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of bling – $400,000 according to the online estimates. Rybakina is looking rather waspish in a yellow vest and black skirt. And Laura Robson is getting very excited in the stands because she’s sitting close to Brad Pitt. “I’ve just lost my head,” she admits, which doesn’t bode well for her in-game analysis. And there’s talk too that Cristiano Ronaldo may be sitting in Sabalenka’s box today.
And the first mini victory goes to Sabalenka: she wins the toss and, without hesitation, opts to serve first.
And here the players come, Rybakina ahead of Sabalenka (the Kazakhstani will be hoping that trend continues), though Sabalenka, headphones on, absolutely strides on to court. It looks as if she’s ready to prove a point against the player who’s taken her world No 1 ranking.
So who wins? To be honest, I’d rather sit on a very rusty fence than call this one. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 10-7 and has won their past two meetings, in Indian Wells and Miami this spring when she claimed both titles, but Rybakina got the better of Sabalenka in January’s Australian Open final and at last year’s season-ending WTA Finals, which were bigger stages. Sabalenka has perhaps played at a higher level than Rybakina this tournament, her groundstrokes pack a slightly bigger punch (no one in the draw has hit more winners than her this fortnight) and she has more variety to her game – but Rybakina has the edge on serve, which is the best in the business. If Rybakina can serve like she did against Osaka in the last 16, Sabalenka could get frustrated – and if her frustrations boil over, that’s where Sabalenka may start thinking about all those losses this summer and Rybakina can take advantage. I honestly think this is 50-50. And do remember you can get in touch with your thoughts here.
If Sabalenka achieves the three-peat today, she’ll become only the third woman in the open era to win the US Open singles title three years in a row and the first since Serena Williams in 2012-14. And this is just the second time since 1988 – when the Australian Open became a hard-court event – that the same two women have met in the Australian Open and US Open finals in the same year. Steffi Graf and Arantxa Sanchez Vicario were the first pair in 1994.
The opening ceremony is getting under way, so the crowd are listening to a rendition of America the Beautiful by Ariana DeBose. the players will be on court in about five minutes.
There’s a great montage on Sky Sports right now, with footage of Sabalenka and Rybakina’s previous matches, and Martina Navratilova doing the voiceover. “Great rivalries are never decided once,” she says. “They’re built in the reply. One lands a blow .. the other answers. Again. And Again. Until there is nowhere left to hide. That’s when two rivals start to define each other and history starts to matter.” And Martina should know, having been part of the greatest ever rivalry in women’s tennis, alongside Chris Evert, over 80 matches between 1973 and 1988.
And some interesting quotes from Sabalenka’s coach Anton Dubrov about her losing the world No 1 ranking:
I actually like it happened. It’s ended and it’s extra fuel. There is no more extra draining [of mental energy] or thinking about it. There’s a next chapter right now. You have to chase again. It’s extra motivation for you. Just go and get it.
Rybakina says:
We played many times. We practised also before. She’s a very aggressive player. It’s difficult to play with her, mentally, physically, because she has big game, big serve. I will need to come with all the energy I have, bring my best serve against Aryna and, yeah, make the right decisions in the right moment, because most of the times it’s tight, tight score. This is where the decision makes a difference.
We push each other when we play these matches, and you clearly can see what you need to work on more. I think that’s great that you play against someone who pushes you till the limits.
Sabalenka says:
It’s going to be really tough match. She’s a big server. She really improved over the years on the baseline game, so it’s going to be physically and mentally tough. I’m ready for the fight. I’m ready to do everything to get the win.
I wasn’t really performing well in the middle part of the season, so it kind of like feels for me, talking about grand slams, a last push of the season. I wanted it badly, to go to the final, and of course I want to go all the way. The mentality is just: ‘I’m ready.’ I’m ready for whatever it’s going to take to get the win.
The last couple of months really teach me how to shut down the noise from outside. I think that’s what’s the meaning behind all of those tough lessons to finally learn how to stay focused on myself and forget about the outside noise.
With just under 20 minutes to go until the players walk out, Sabalenka is currently backstage, warming up with a giant resistance band, which is feeling the full force of the two-time defending champion. She’s already got her game face on. It’s a beautiful day in New York, about 26C/79F, with no risk of rain, so the roof is off and the stands are filling up, though all the influencers are probably still too busy eating their $100 caviar-topped chicken nuggets to have taken to their seats.
Rybakina
First round def Thea Frodin (WC) 6-3, 6-2
Second round def Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-2, 6-4
Third round def Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6 (6), 6-3
Fourth round def Naomi Osaka (13) 6-1, 6-4
Quarter-final def Zheng Qinwen (Q) 3-6, 6-1, 6-4
Semi-final def Coco Gauff (4) 3-6, 6-4, 6-4
Sabalenka
First round def Camila Osorio 6-2, 6-4
Second round def Polina Iatcenko (Q) 6-1, 6-1
Third round def Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3, 6-4
Fourth round def Taylor Townsend 6-4, 6-3
Quarter-final def Linda Noskova (6) 7-6 (1), 3-6, 7-6 (7)
Semi-final def Jessica Pegula (3) 7-5, 6-2
Road to the final. Despite all the questions over Sabalenka’s form and frame of mind coming into this tournament, and her tense exchanges with reporters in the early rounds, she’s reached her fourth consecutive US Open final for the loss of only one set – which came in a high-quality quarter-final against the Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova. Sabalenka saw off Noskova in a super tie-break, before playing her best match in months against Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals. Rybakina, meanwhile, didn’t drop a set until the quarter-finals (she was flawless against Naomi Osaka in the last 16) – then came from a set down against Zheng Qinwen and Coco Gauff, dealing so well with having nearly 24,000 fans against her when playing Gauff. So she’s battle ready.
Tale of the tape
Sabalenka – Rybakina
28 Age 27
1 Seeding 2
1 World ranking 2 (though not for much longer…)
4 Grand slam titles 2
9 Grand slam finals (including today) 4
24 Singles titles 13
10 Head-to-head 7
Tumaini Carayol
Meanwhile here’s Tumaini’s excellent preview of the women’s final:
A typically understated Elena Rybakina stepped up to the microphone for her speech after her triumph at Indian Wells in 2023, her long-awaited first WTA 1000 title, and one of her first objectives was to recognise the efforts of her opponent. Rybakina congratulated Aryna Sabalenka on a strong fortnight and noted that it was the first time she had beaten the Belarusian. Sabalenka’s mouth instantly curled into a mischievous grin and, as ever, she could not halt her impulsive thoughts: “I will make sure it is the last time,” Sabalenka said, laughing. Rybakina, herself also smiling, responded instantly: “No. No, no, no. We’ll see next time.”
There has since been a next time, another next time and several next times after that and as Sabalenka and Rybakina, the top two players in the world, face off at the US Open, this latest encounter proves beyond doubt they have established themselves as one of the best recent rivalries in women’s tennis.
The statistics alone are impressive. It was only in 1988 that the Australian Open shifted to hard courts. Since then, this is just the second time that the same two female players have met in the final of the Australian Open and US Open, the two hard-court grand slams. Like Steffi Graf and Arantxa Sánchez Vicario in 1994, the only other players to do so, these two finals were also preceded by a meeting at the WTA Finals at the end of the previous year.
In the buildup to this final, the dominant storyline in the women’s tour was the second seed Rybakina’s pursuit of Sabalenka’s No 1 ranking, which she sealed by defeating the Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen to reach the semi-finals here for the first time. This is just the third time in the 21st century that a grand slam final will be decided between two players who will switch places at the No 1 spot after the tournament. On both previous occasions, Caroline Wozniacki’s win over Simona Halep at the 2018 Australian Open and Serena Williams’s triumph over her sister, Venus, at Wimbledon in 2002, the match was won by the incoming No 1.
It seemed for a while that the rivalry between Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek was destined to define this era. They were, and still are, the two most successful players of this current generation and they have played some classic matches against each other. Somehow, fortune has conspired against them. Despite twice being one point away from doing so – Sabalenka held match point against Karolina Muchova in their 2023 French Open semi-final and Swiatek the same against Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open semi-final – they have still never contested a grand slam final.
You can read the rest here:
And Britain’s Alfie Hewett has won his fifth wheelchair singles title in New York, beating his great rival and top seed Tokito Oda 6-0, 7-6 (5), to end a run of four successive losses to Oda in grand slam finals and stop the Japanese player from completing a calendar slam. Hewett said afterwards that he had been desperate to prove something to himself having won only two games against Oda in the Wimbledon final two months ago.
Already today in the men’s doubles: the British-American duo of Neal Skupski and Christian Harrison have done what Rybakina hopes to do later, adding the US Open title to the Australian Open crown they won in January, to claim a grand slam hard-court double. They defeated Germany’s Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz 6-4, 7-6 (6) after saving a set point in the second-set tie-break. It’s a case of third time lucky for Skupski after he was a beaten finalist in New York in 2022 and last year with different partners.
Preamble
After an A+++ women’s tournament, in which we’ve seen so many must-watch matches (take your pick between this, this, this, this or this), captivating comebacks (much respect to Zheng Qinwen) and the top seeds eventually asserting their authority, it seems fitting that it all ends here: Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina, the world No 1 for the past 99 weeks v the player who will replace her at the top of the rankings on Monday.
When these two are at their best no one else on tour can live with them – well, apart from peak Iga Swiatek – though it’s been a while since we’ve seen that version of the Pole at the grand slams. But, up until this tournament, it had been a while since we’d seen the best version of Sabalenka too. Having not claimed a slam title this year or reached a final since she won Miami in March, amid a series of defeats to much lower-ranked players during the summer, the two-time defending US Open champion has rediscovered her form this fortnight, gaining momentum and equilibrium as the rounds have gone by. She looks intent on salvaging her slam season In New York – as she did last year too – and losing her No 1 ranking will no doubt make her even more determined to prove a point today, while Rybakina will be full of confidence and feeling on top of the world, quite literally, after scaling the summit for the first time in her career.
They haven’t entered Navratilova v Evert territory yet (the recent documentary about the 80 matches (!) those two played and their friendship off the court is brilliant, btw), but Sabalenka v Rybakina is turning into quite a rivalry. This will be the fourth time they’ve contested a final in the past 10 months – Rybakina prevailed at last year’s season-ending WTA Finals and this year’s Australian Open, before Sabalenka triumphed in Indian Wells – and their third grand slam final overall, with the pair holding one win apiece. Both of those were closely contested three-setters, so there are high hopes of this turning into a trilogy of classics today.
Despite the variation Sabalenka has added to her game in recent years, this is power v power, arguably the best groundstrokes in women’s tennis v the best serve, an arm wrestle for first-strike supremacy between two players so similar in style but different in personality, with the contrast between Sabalenka’s volatility and Rybakina’s composure adding even more appeal to this potentially era-defining rivalry.
The players will be on court: at about 4pm New York time/9pm BST. So get settled in with some Honey Deuces and do get in touch with any thoughts or predictions.