Key events
Burnham Square is the only US-trained runner with any real chance according to the betting, but he was soundly beaten behind Sir Mark Prescott’s admirable globe-trotting mare, Tiffany, and the runner-up, Ethical Diamond, in the Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational at Kentucky Downs last time.
It would be some story if Tiffany could take out today’s race, and add the trophy from the Breeders’ Cup Turf to the one from Alpinista’s win in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on the mantlepiece at Sir Mark Prescott’s stable in Newmarket.
After a long series of favourites at or around even-money, we have a favourite at a working-person’s price! Diamond Necklace is a 9-2 shot on the local tote.
Latest betting:
9-2 Diamond Necklace
5-1 Benvenuto Cellini & Tiffany
6-1 Bay City Roller
9-1 Burnham Square
12-1 Ethical Diamond
14-1 Survie
20-1 bar
21.36 Breeders’ Cup Turf, Grade One, 1m 4f
It’s been a tricky evening for the Europeans so far but surely, SURELY the visitors will not be leaving this one behind. The top eight in the betting with the British bookies hail from European stables, and there are just three US-trained runners and one from Japan, all outsiders priced up at 22-1 and bigger.
Aidan O’Brien has the top two in the market in Diamond Necklace and Benvenuto Cellini, and they are drawn on opposite sides of the stalls. Diamond Necklace is the marginal favourite, despite a wide draw in 12 that persuaded Ryan Moore to jump ship to Benvenuto Cellini, but she was drawn wide with Soumillon aboard in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe too and finished a highly creditable third.
Next in the betting is my biggest fancy on tonight’s card, Bay City Roller, who was just in front of Diamond Necklace from a similarly tricky stall at Longchamp and has a string of top-quality performances to his name this season including a Group One win in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in June.
The rain-softened ground may have exaggerated his winning margin but Bay City Roller does not need it soft, as he showed in the Arc. He’s drawn wide, but then he was drawn wide at Longchamp too and had little trouble getting close to the lead. Oisin Murphy is a supreme judge of pace and I can see him producing a bit of a masterclass on Bay City Roller, one of the most consistent and progressive three-year-olds in training.
Another runner to take seriously is last year’s winner, Ethical Diamond, who will set off at a much shorter price this time around. Dylan Browne McMonagle, his imperturbable rider, is perfectly suited to his hold-up style and he will be finishing best of all.
Nitrogen sat just behind the pace in the end, but Jose Ortiz was always going extremely well and once he sent her to the lead, there was going to be only one winner.
She set off as the 3-5 favourite, and we are still waiting for a winner at a double-figure price at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.
DISTAFF RESULT: NITROGEN IN HER ELEMENT
1. NITROGEN (Jose Ortiz), 2. Fully Subscribed, 3. Measure. 7 ran.
Off and running in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff!
Super Corredora leads early, Nitrogen back in third.
Fully Subscribed is fifth, the first quarter was modest at 23.57sec.
It’s a steady pace to the half too, Super Corredora has enjoyed a soft lead.
Nitrogen goes outside in the stretch, Fully Subscribed in pursuit, she’s drifting to her right but Nitrogen is clear, she’s at least a length up and here’s the line …
Approaching the stalls for the Distaff, and the punters have swung behind Nitrogen at 3-5, with Fully Subscribed next in.
It will be a considerable shock if the big two are both beaten here, but the three-year-old Super Corredora may have at least a few supporters, having landed a Grade Two at Santa Anita with ease in late September.
20.58 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Grade One, 1m 1f
But first, we’re back on the dirt for the Distaff, for fillies and mares over a mile and a furlong.
Mark Casse’s four-year-old Nitrogen is likely to set off as the favourite here and boasts a highly impressive career record that includes an emphatic near-13 length success in a Grade One at Saratoga in June.
As the pace map suggests, she is happiest when she makes the running and there is every chance she will get her own way on the lead.
She has a significant market rival, though, in Chad Brown’s Fully Subscribed, who was on the wrong end of that 12 3/4-length beating at Saratoga but has reeled off handsome wins in her last three races including a nine-and-three-quarter length win in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga in August.
As things stand, Japan could well have more winners on the Breeders’ Cup’s main card than the Europeans, despite fielding far fewer runners. Hopes for a European winner now rest with a strong contingent of runners in the Turf in two races’ time.
A valiant effort by Notable Speech to run down the winner but the favourite came up short. William Buick had four behind him and was three wide around the final turn, and had five lengths to make on Deterministic at the top of the stretch, which proved to be too big an ask.
Deterministic was sent off at 5-1, while Notable Speech was the evens favourite on the tote.
MILE RESULT: DETERMINISTIC TURNS TABLES ON NOTABLE SPEECH
1. DETERMINISTIC (Kendrick Carmouche), 2. Notable Speech, 3. Lake Forest. 13 ran.
Puerto Rico slow away but makes rapid ground to sit second, True Love towards the rear …
Now Cabo Spirit settles on the lead, Deterministic next and Puerto Rico third …
Into the far turn, Notable Speech is a long way off the lead, …
Deterministic leads into the final furlong, Notable Speech is finishing fast from way off the pace, making ground with every stride …
Will he get there? No, he had too much ground to make up and it’s Deterministic for the win
They’re going into the gates for the Mile …
And they’re off and running!
I’m sticking with Notable Speech here but 4-5 is very short. And the Brighton fan in me would love to see the blue-and-white stripes first across the line aboard Lake Forest.
Breeders’ Cup Mile, latest betting:
4-5 Notable Speech
9-2 Deterministic
8-1 Rhetorical
9-1 Lake Forest
12-1 Ask Ikigomi
15-1 True Love
18-1 bar
Aidan O’Brien, True Love’s trainer, also has Puerto Rico in this race, although he’s drawn wide in stall 14. And there’s a couple of Japanese-trained runners too, in Ask Ikigomi and Lugal, and the former has at least an each-way chance on ratings having been edged out by a nose in a Grade One at Tokyo last time.
20.20 Breeders’ Cup Mile, Grade One, 1m
After the Euro-wobble in the first two races on the card, there could be no better trainer than Charlie Appleby to get the bandwagon rolling again, in a contest where he has a near-perfect record of four wins from five starters.
Notable Speech, last year’s winner, won with something to spare and has looked every bit as good, if not better, so far this year, including when successful in the Grade One Woodbine Mile last time with his leading US-trained rival, Deterministic, in second.
Notable Speech will set off as a short-priced and worthy favourite but faces some stern opposition, including Lake Forest, who runs in the blue-and-white colours of Tony Bloom and will bid to set the seal on a perfect day for the owner of Brighton & Hove Albion after their magnificent victory at Manchester City earlier on.
Lake Forest did not have any luck in running when second over today’s course-and-distance in the Turf Mile last time out.
And there is a Classic winner in the field too, as True Love took the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket back in May.
There’s no way Englishman was beaten by his draw there, he was just beaten by a better horse on the day. T O Elvis was at least eight lengths adrift when Englishman hit the lead two out, but he showed incredible finishing speed to stay on all the way up the stretch and grab the lead two strides from the line
Liam Smith, meanwhile, did not drop away after being passed and rewarded his each-way backers by staying on well for third.
SPRINT RESULT: T O ELVIS ROCKS FOR JAPAN
1. T O ELVIS (Ryusei Sakai), 2. Englishman, 3. Liam Smith. 13 ran.
Englishman fast away but he’s three wide …
Now Englishman settles second after a quarter, Liam Smith is leading.
Englishman takes Liam Smith and goes into the lead, he leads by two halfway down the stretch
But here’s T O Elvis for Japan, he trying to chase down the favourite, gaining all the time and YES! he’s got there, T O Elvis is a big winner on the dirt for Japan.
Off and running in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint!
The local punters are unconcerned by Englishman’s wide draw and he’s 4-5 on the tote.
Sprint latest betting:
4-5 Englishman
5-2 T O Elvis
6-1 Listenupshance
14-1 Built
19-1 Liam Smith
25-1 bar
Pace map: Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Englishman is a clear form pick but he’s drawn in stall 13 and unlikely to get across to the lead with the speedy Mad House drawn one. T O Elvis, meanwhile, is only two stalls closer to the rail in 11, though he a more of a closer.
It’s a definite stab in the dark, but Liam Smith has posted some useful numbers while moving through the ranks and is well drawn to attack in stall three. At around 25-1 with the British bookies, I’m going to take a small each-way interest.
19.42 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Grade One, 6f
But before we get to the Mile, there’s another hot favourite looming on the horizon in the shape of Englishman, in the Sprint on the dirt.
Cherie DeVaux’s three-year-old has won three of his four starts this season including a dominant success in the H Allen Jerkens Memorial over seven furlongs at Saratoga last time.
The second-pick in the betting is the Japanese-trained T O Elvis, the winner of his last five starts but not seen out since an impressive success at Churchill Downs in May.
And there’s also an interesting outsider on an upward curve in Peter Miller’s Liam Smith, who has emerged via claimers but posted a very impressive time when successful at Santa Anita last time.
Saturday is not unfolding as European racing fans might have hoped so far, but Notable Speech is up next in the Mile in two races’ time while the Turf will surely go to a visitor – it’s just a question of which one.
Looping back to the Turf Sprint earlier on the card, Bacio is syndicate-owned and Wesley Ward was particularly pleased about that as his daughter-in-law, Caitlin, helped to keep Bacio in his yard when offers came in for him earlier in his career.
There was a lot to the whole story behind him, to me getting him, and then once he started winning, me keeping him. He was a sought after horse, a lot of people were coming in. My daughter-in-law brought me one of the greatest gifts ever, my grandson, Killian, and she put an ownership group together with MyRacehorse in order to keep him here in our stable.
It’s so nice to have thousands of owners in this horse and win the Breeders’ Cup, it’s going to really help our sport.
A big let down for the Europeans, neither Blue Bolt nor Precise was ever travelling with purpose and both were beaten before the final turn. Well done to County Kildare-based Willie McCreery though – his 25-1 outsider Jancis came through to finish third, and best of the Euro runners.
Kathynmarissa was sent off at 5-1 on the local tote, but there was 7-1 and 8-1 on offer with British firms beforehand.
FILLY & MARE TURF RESULT: KATHYNMARISSA DOMINANT AS BLUE BOLT FADES
1. KATHYNMARISSA (Jose Ortiz), 2. Gimme A Nother, 3. Jancis. 12 ran.
Kathynmarissa lands the spoils, Precise and Blue Bolt both soundly beaten.
Into the turn, it’s still Classic Q, Precise looks beaten, now Gimme A Nother goes on with a furlong to run …
But here’s Kathynmarissa, she’s making rapid ground and she’s going to get there …
Down the back, Classic Q still leads, Precise under a slight drive, Blue Bolt makes a move three wide …
Classic Q turns first, Precise three wide in mid-division and Blue Bolt has three behind her
