Key events
Patriots 10-7 Broncos 14:18, 4th quarter
Oooh Lil Jordan Humphrey drops a catch. He should have had it but with all this snow can you blame him for a drop. Great throw from Stidham. Punt.
Patriots 10-7 Broncos 15:00, 4th quarter
Denver run it and take the wind at their backs with 15 minutes to go. Can they pull off a monumental win? Let’s find out in these absolutely filthy conditions.
Postcard from Mile High.
It’s NO GOOD! Patriots 10-7 Broncos 0:11, 3rd quarter
New England bite off a huge chunk of yardage with a 31-yard strike from Maye to Mack Hollins. Lovely bit of business there. Tony Romo is saying they are getting ultra aggressive on playcalling to capitalise on the favourable conditions travelling this way of the field.
The amount of snow swirling you can barely see the TV broadcast. Must be awful on the field. Denver get the stop after all that chat anyway, so never mind. And Borregalles hits a tough 46-yard try wide right. 24 plays on two drives from the Pats have yielded three points. Might be enough though.
Patriots 10-7 Broncos 3:50, 3rd quarter
So New England have a first lead of the day. Jim Nantz informs us that Denver have the tougher go of the nasty elements travelling from left to right as we see it on the broadcast. And we see their effect quickly as Jaleel McLaughlin drops an easy ball on 2nd down. Visibility and the ball becoming slick a problem now for all. A short pass fails and the punt team are straight out there. New England take over on their 20-yard line.
It’s GOOD! Patriots 10-7 Broncos 5:29, 3rd quarter
1st and Goal, Stevenson forms an impromptu scrum and gets five vital yards. Next the direct snap is almost completely botched and Stevenson goes nowhere. Weird to call a trick play there. Maye is then sacked by Jonathon Cooper. Monster 9min 31sec drive for three points. Could be vital. Still a win for the Broncos after the Pats only needed three yards for the score.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 7:58, 3rd quarter
1st down!
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 7:58, 3rd quarter
Denver challenging the spot of the ball. And now we wait.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 7:58, 3rd quarter
Denver’s turn to tighten up now as they move New England quickly to 3rd down with a fierce blitz on Maye. With 10 to get Maye drops it short to Hunter Henry who barrels up a half yard short. Will Mike Vrabel gamble? Yes. The tush push gets the 1st down. Denver protesting but it matters little. Eight yards remain.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 9:11, 3rd quarter
This adjustment to running the ball is working a treat! Drake Maye takes off for a huge 28-yard gain straight up the middle and out to the right. New England’s longest play of the day takes them into the red zone as the snow comes down harder now.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 11:43, 3rd quarter
New England pick up a 1st down with a short run from Rhamondre Stevenson then he smashes forward again with a huge burst for 12 yards. The Pats are across midfield now.
I’ve got mail! Ciarán asks …
“Why don’t the understudies get any snaps? Assuming the Broncos were in a few comfortable wins this year, how come Stidham hasn’t got some at least garbage time snaps during the regular season? Surely makes sense to prevent injuries to your number 1 and have a sharper backup if the number 1 does get injured.”
There weren’t many comfortable wins for Denver really. They tied an NFL record with 11 one-score wins of their 14 in the regular season. It absolutely would make sense to give Stidham some game time though. I think one major problem is Sean Payton’s aggressive coaching style. He just wants to win at all costs which means his best players out on the field at all times. Especially the QB.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos, half-time
Do you think Denver would have taken this scoreline before kickoff? I have the sneaking suspicion they might have done. The Broncos’ defense is killing Drake Maye. A field goal could win this 10-7 if Stidham can avoid another costly turnover.
The snow is falling now in Mile High! More chaos on the way in the second half.
It’s NO GOOD! Patriots 7-7 Broncos, half-time
Andres Borregales misses the monster 63-yard field goal try. It never had a chance.
Half-time then. What an ugly first half that was, so many mistakes from both teams. The only bright spot was Jarret Stidham’s opening touchdown drive and each side’s pass rushes teeing off on the QBs. Denver and New England each have three sacks.
Drake Maye finishes up 7/14 for 41 yards, no touchdowns or picks. He did run in New England’s score. Jarrett Stidham is 12/21 for 123 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions.
New England’s 43 total rushing yards on nine carries play Denver’s 57 yards on the ground from 17 carries.
Things can only get better …
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 0:01, 2nd quarter
Drake Maye goes for the home run to Kayshon Boutte but Patrick Surtain is all over the receiver. No chance. 3rd and long, Maye steps up and gets the 1st down with a mighty scramble. New England call the timeout with one second on the clock! Wow!
It’s NO GOOD! Patriots 7-7 Broncos 0:20, 2nd quarter
RJ Harvey collects a short pass as he races from left to right and puts Denver in field goal range just like that. Stidham drops back a mile on 1st down and throws it away. New England send the kitchen sink at Stidham on the next play but he gets it out quickly for a short gain then loses a yard on a sack after a scramble. Sean Payton looks a bit irked by that one. And will be even angrier now as Will Lutz misses the 54-yard try, wide right.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 0:48, 2nd quarter
Hunter Henry drops a 1st down leaving the Pats on 3rd and 5 and they come up short on another short pass to Henry. New England punt in lightning speed. Denver take over at midfield.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 1:42, 2nd quarter
Christian Barmore sacks Stidham for a loss of eight yards with a brutal hit. The offensive line collapsed completely. 3rd and 18. The short pass to Evan Engram is six yards short of the chains. Punt coming after New England’s timeout.
Jarrett Stidham’s fumble that was returned for a score that originally was called intentional grounding that the referees then decided was a fumble meaning the Patriots didn’t get their touchdown. Simple. Maye did score on the next play though.
Patriots 7-7 Broncos 1:58, 2nd quarter
Ooooh watch out, Jarrett. On a screen pass on 1st down he holds on to the ball and is almost sacked by K’Lavon Chaisson. Could have been another fumble. On the next play all is well as RJ Harvey catches a fast ball and moves the chains.
TOUCHDOWN! Patriots 7-7 Broncos 2:10, 2nd quarter
The Patriots are level after that mess from the referees. New England should have had the scoop and score but Maye makes up for it with a short run through fresh air in the middle of the field. Game on!
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 2:29, 2nd quarter
Wow, the Broncos almost give away a fumble touchdown as Stidham is almost sacked and coughs a pass out just. He is dinged for intentional grounding though. 4th and 24. Or has he?! No! They decide it is a fumble as it wasn’t a forward pass. New England in the red zone instantly! What an absolute mess that was.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 5:50, 2nd quarter
As Denver start their drive, I have had a look at the lowest scoring playoff games in the Super Bowl era. This one at current pace could be the second lowest ever. Here is the list:
1970 Divisional (5 points): Cowboys 5 Lions 0
1979 NFC Championship (9 points): Rams 9 Buccaneers 0
2017 Wild Card (13 points): Jaguars 10 Bills 3
1997 Divisional (13 points): Steelers 7 Patriots 6
1996 Wild Card (14 points): 49ers 14 Eagles 0
1982 AFC Championship (14 points): Dolphins 14 Jets 0
Super Bowl 53 (16 points): Patriots 13 Rams 3
1991 Wild Card (16 points): Chiefs 10 Raiders 6
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 5:50, 2nd quarter
Zach Allen bags another sack for Denver on 3rd and 3. That is three total now. New England punt for a fourth time. Stidham to take over on his 17-yard line.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 8:36, 2nd quarter
DJ Jones sacks Drake Maye on the opening play of another difficult drive for New England. He needs protection. A loss of three yards. A nice throw on the next play is just out of reach for Pop Douglas. 3rd and long in a blink of an eye again. Only they move the chains with a 20-yard pass to Mack Hollins. Phew.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 9:22, 2nd quarter
On 3rd and 7, Stidham is a single yard short of the 1st down with a scramble out to the right. A huge smile on the QB’s face after that one is a lovely moment and probably a worrying one for New England. He is on a roll. On 4th and 1 the Broncos gamble … and it flops royally. Incomplete pass, I spoke to soon. Should have kicked the field goal.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 11:04, 2nd quarter
RJ Harvey bowls up to New England’s 30-yard line with a nine-yard carry with Adam Prentice diving over to move the sticks again. Tony Romo points out the blindingly obvious, “New England need to limit them to three.” Denver very much in easy field goal range but of course would prefer a touchdown.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 13:04, 2nd quarter
Stidham picks up another 1st down with a strike to Lil Jordan Humphrey. We’re still persisting with Lil then, are we?
That sack from Que Robinson. Bosh.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 15:00, 2nd quarter
Stidham moves the chains with an easy throw out to the right and that is the opening quarter done with. One way traffic.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 0:54, 1st quarter
It is just getting worse for New England. Drake Maye is sacked for a loss of nine yards on a botched boot leg by Que Robinson. The Patriots are punting for a third time in three drives. Stidham takes over at his 42-yard line. Bombs away.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 2:20, 1st quarter
On 3rd down Stidham throws a neat ball to Sutton in the middle of the field as he is almost sacked … and Sutton drops it. Hard catch to make but it was there for him. The punt goes for a touchback. The QB again looking very good out there.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 3:14, 1st quarter
Denver pick up a 1st down thanks to an excellent design run from Stidham. New England’s defense flummoxed by a fake handoff. Then bad news for the Patriots as linebacker Robert Spillane goes down injured.
Patriots 0-7 Broncos 6:55, 1st quarter
Drake Maye goes for a bomb of his own to Kayshon Boutte but Patrick Surtain is all over the receiver and says not today! On 3rd and long the short pass goes nowhere. Punt. This is going exactly to plan for Denver.
Here is Marvin Mims making that 52-yard grab to set up the score. What a play that was.
TOUCHDOWN! Patriots 0-7 Broncos 10:19, 1st quarter
What a start! On 2nd down Stidham sees his top target Courtland Sutton open in the right corner of the end zone and finds him with ease. Stidham’s first touchdown of the season comes off the perfect, aggressive throw to Marvin Mims from midfield.
Patriots 0-0 Broncos 11:06, 1st quarter
Stidham shows his athleticism on 1st down by neatly evading two sacks, only he can’t find RJ Harvey who actually gives away a penalty for going out of bounds then coming back in. Another quick throw is off the mark from Stidham on 2nd down. Great call, it would have picked up the 1st down if it was a catchable ball.
On 3rd down … Stidham uncorks a 52-yard bomb to Marvin Mims. HELLO! Denver are 1st and Goal!
Patriots 0-0 Broncos 12:00, 1st quarter
Denver’s defense come up big and force a three and out of their own. Two failed runs put the ball in Drake Maye’s hands and he almost throws a pick to Talanoa Hufanga. The punt puts the Broncos on their own 40-yard line. Decent position.
Patriots 0-0 Broncos 13:30, 1st quarter
It is a tiny sample size but if that three and out is anything to go by then Denver might be in a bit of trouble. Stidham drops way back on 3rd down running for his life and throws a wobbler away.
The punt is excellent though. New England backed up to their eight-yard line.
Patriots 0-0 Broncos 15:00, 1st quarter
Here we go! Denver let the ball go through the end zone. Jarrett Stidham is coming at you, New England.
The horse is scampering out on to the field ahead of the big men in orange. Kickoff is not far away! This is going to be a fun one, I can feel it.
Drake Maye is looking crafty as he goes through his warmup in Mile High. He is going to have to be just that to overcome Denver’s nasty defense. The Broncos have the finest pass rush in the NFL finishing top of the pops with 68 sacks as a team. Maye’s six fumbles from 10 sacks so far in the playoffs will have them in a frenzy to get through New England’s offensive line and shake the quarterback up.
Can you believe it has been seven years since the Patriots last won a Super Bowl? New England have a golden opportunity to return to the top table after the end of Tom Brady’s dynastic control of the NFL.
It has been an excellent season in Foxborough. They finished 14-3 in the regular season while sweeping the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans aside to set a date with Denver. The main source of their success has been at quarterback with the second-year star Drake Maye making a huge leap from his rookie season.
Here is some pre-game reading on Brady 2.0 …
Oh and on the subject of Jarrett Stidham, this is of course a revenge gameTM for the QB. He was selected by the Patriots in the fourth round of the 2019 draft and started a grand total of zero games for them. There were some mitigating factors such as backing up Tom Brady in his first season in the NFL. But when Cam Newton came to town in 2020, he was the backup Brian Hoyer’s backup so New England clearly didn’t think too highly of him. Stiddy has the ultimate shot to show them the error of their ways.
With about 40 minutes to kickoff we can have a short history lesson. The Broncos and Patriots have met twice before in the AFC Championship game. In 2016 when Denver’s defense shut Tom Brady down to sneak a 20-18 win. The D then rose up again to batter Cam Newton and the Panthers for a 24-10 win in Super Bowl 50. Two years before the Broncos prevailed again behind a monster 400 yard passing day from Payton Manning.
Will history repeat itself? It certainly might need to, regarding Denver’s defense dominating, as backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham starts in place of the injured Bo Nix, who broke his ankle in the victory last week over Buffalo. The 29-year-old replacement has not started an NFL game in two years and in four career starts is 1-3. So a lack of any significant game experience will have New England’s defense confident of ruining his big day. What Stidham has gained since his last start in 2023 though is time working with a brilliant head coach in Sean Payton. The offensive guru is sure to have been working triple overtime to cook up a simplified playbook. Payton will be prioritising protecting Stidham from costly mistakes while making sure there are still a few surprises baked in that utilise the QB’s impressive athletic ability when scrambling out of the pocket. He can throw a bit too …
Preamble
Hi and hello football fans, is it just me or is there magic in the air? The wait is almost over, the race almost run … yes, when the dust is settled today we will know the combatants for Super Bowl LX! And Donald Trump isn’t going to the big game because California is too far for him to travel! Oh, what a day … what a lovely day!
There is still two bits of business to attend to though, the small big matter of an AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos that begins at 2pm CT/3pm ET/8pm GMT then the NFC’s edition after as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks.
My pick is stuck on a Patriots v Seahawks final in a couple of weeks but it is still wide open because any given Sunday … right? I hope we get a fantastic pair of games regardless because the NFL playoffs are what living is gentlepeople. Hoo-HA!
Graham will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s his preview of today’s game:
New England Patriots v Denver Broncos (Sunday 3pm ET/8pm GMT)
What New England need to do to win: Clean up their act. Last week against the Houston Texans, Drake Maye was blindsided too often by edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The pair wreaked havoc, sacking Maye five times and forcing him into three of his four fumbles. The Los Angeles Chargers also forced two from him in the wildcard round. Denver led the league in sacks (68) in the regular season, and will be intent on causing similar damage on Sunday. But Maye can mitigate that threat if he sharpens his awareness in the pocket and takes the sack rather than rushing into impossible passes. New England’s left tackle Will Campbell is very likely to lose a couple of duels with edge defender Nik Bonitto, so Maye needs to be ready for a helmet sandwich while holding on to the ball for dear life. Simply punting and giving Denver’s second-string quarterback, Jarrett Stidham, tough field position may be all it takes to reach the Super Bowl.
What Denver need to do to win: Limit the Patriots to 20 points or fewer. Stidham then needs to stay calm and manage the offense with care rather than forcing the ball against a team with a great defense. It would be ideal if Denver can generate a huge day in the run game but without the injured Bo Nix’s scrambles they just don’t have the quality to ease the burden on Stidham. So it’s up to you Stiddy … or is it? Denver’s receivers certainly need to do a better job of catching the ball, specifically their best wideout, Courtland Sutton, who endured a serious case of dropsy against Buffalo. The offensive line is rock solid, but even so Stidham will have to be patient and wait for his wide men to get open rather than panicking in the face of pressure. CJ Stroud’s meltdown last week is a cautionary tale about what happens when New England’s QB hunters get in your head.
Key player for the Patriots: Stefon Diggs, wide receiver. Diggs is the perfect antidote to Denver’s excellent passing defense. The 32-year-old still has immaculate hands and is as reliable as they come, finishing 12th for receptions in the regular season despite being 34th for total targets, with only two drops. If Maye finds Diggs in the end zone you can guarantee the receiver will rise to the occasion.
Key player for the Broncos: Garett Bolles, left tackle. The veteran just keeps getting better, and he earned his first All-Pro accolade this season at 33 years old. In 2025, Bolles allowed just six QB hits and zero sacks across the regular season. That’s exactly the kind of protection Stidham needs in only the fifth NFL start of his career.
Prediction: Patriots over Broncos. The home crowd spurring on Denver’s defense to even greater heights will make it close, just not close enough. The Broncos offense is likely to be overmatched and outscored by Maye’s superior ability to make plays under pressure.
