3 min readApr 6, 2026 07:19 PM IST
The race for the Open event title at the Candidates 2026 tournament has effectively become a two-way battle between Javokhir Sindarov and Fabiano Caruana.
However, the Uzbek’s lead is so commanding that even at the halfway stage, it would now be a big shock for pre-tournament favourite Caruana to win the event.
Competing in his first Candidates, Sindarov’s dominance has been absolute. He has forced decisive results against five opponents in a tournament where a draw is often as good as a win. He took down Indian hope R Praggnanandhaa, Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Wei Yi and Andrey Esipenko while only Anish Giri and Matthias Blübaum could hold him to a draw.
Since the introduction of the current Candidates format, a score of 6.0/7 is the best-ever start by any eventual winner, including such names as Magnus Carlsen, Viswanathan Anand, Sergey Karjakin, Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi (twice) and D Gukesh.
But the Uzbek phenom stands above the rest at the halfway mark, outscoring Nepomniachtchi’s previous-best run by half a point. Nepo’s dominant first half (5.5/7) saw him win the Candidates with a round to spare, and his final tally of 9.5 points remains the highest-ever by any player in the event.
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At his current rate, Sindarov needs just one more win after which he could afford to draw the rest of his games to surpass Nepomniachtchi’s record.
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Looking at all the realistic possibilities, Praggnanandhaa’s chances of overcoming the deficit to Caruana, let alone Sindarov, are nearly non-existent. To have even an outside shot at the title, he would need to replicate exactly what Sindarov did in the first half. But given how well the rest of the field has prepared against the Indian, effectively shutting him out in almost all but one game, things do not look promising for him.
Still, stranger things have happened over the chessboard. Pragg may need to walk over to his elder sister and ask for tips on winning five games in a row.
Candidates 2026 leaderboard after 7 rounds
Open
- 1 – Javokhir Sindarov (UZB) – 6 points – 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 loss
- 2 – Fabiano Caruana (USA) – 4.5 points – 3 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss
- 3 – Anish Giri (NED) – 3.5 points – 1 win, 5 draws, 1 loss
- 4 – Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (IND) – 3.5 points – 1 win, 5 draws – 1 loss
- 5 – Wei Yi (CHN) – 3.0 points – 1 win, 4 draws – 2 losses
- 6 – Matthias Bluebaum (GER) – 3.0 points – 0 wins, 6 draws – 1 loss
- 7 – Hikaru Nakamura (USA) – 2.5 points – 0 wins, 5 draws – 2 losses
- 8 – Andrey Esipenko (FIDE) – 2.0 points – 0 wins, 4 draws – 3 losses
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