Bengaluru: Tier lists and predictions of all assortments for the Candidates tournament are out, and all that remains now is for the players to get cracking at the board. The March 29–April 16 tournament in Cyprus will see eight players battle for a shot to become reigning world champion Gukesh’s challenger.
Qualifying for the Candidates can be a gruelling process, and once that is out of the way, the tournament’s unpredictability can feel like a cold shower from hell.
You’d think experience would count for everything in a tournament like this, until you’re hit by a cheeky stat: two of the last three winners were debutants – Ian Nepomniachtchi in 2020–21 and Gukesh in 2024. In a tournament where the limits of endurance can be put to the test over three weeks, mental resilience, the ability to bounce back after a loss, and sheer bloody-mindedness can make the difference between champion and second place. It’s what set Gukesh apart two years ago.
This time, unsurprisingly, the name topping almost all tier lists as favourite is Fabiano Caruana. The 2018 World Championship challenger is known for his deep opening preparation and has been the strongest player after Magnus Carlsen for a while now. Making his sixth Candidates appearance, Caruana believes that his experience doesn’t necessarily offer him an edge. One of the most consistent players, he can sometimes overextend and take risks, which can backfire.
Then there’s Hikaru Nakamura. The other half of the band of “old Americans” picked by Carlsen as favourites. While it’s hard to deny Nakamura’s practical strength, it’s tough to gauge his form in classical chess since he hasn’t played a top-level tournament in the format after Norway Chess in June 2025. Earlier this month, he played a public training match with young US talent Awonder Liang in preparation for the Candidates. Nakamura lost 4-6.
The only Indian in the line-up, Praggnanandhaa, hasn’t been in great form lately, something he’ll be hoping to put behind him in his second successive Candidates. With excellent calculation skills and an all-round game, Praggnanandhaa has had wins against the top names and it’s on him to make a first-ever all-Indian World Championship match possible.
He will face Anish Giri in Round 1. They’ve played nine classical games against each other, six of which ended in draws. Giri won two of their remaining three games. An elite player for over a decade, Giri is known for his solid play and for being a superb theoretician. His 14 draws in the 2016 Candidates might have something to do with his reputation for being drawish. Along with Caruana and Nakamura, the 31-year-old must feel this is his chance to go all-in. It remains be seen if he can win enough games to put up a fight.
Of the remaining four names – Wei Yi, Javokhir Sindarov, Andrey Esipenko and Matthias Bluebaum, the feisty 20-year-old Uzbek can turn out to be a dark horse. A prodigious talent, Sindarov won the 2025 World Cup and has the gift of momentum heading into the Candidates. While Bluebaum, the soft-spoken, brooding mathematician, reckons his ‘underdog’ tag is both as a blessing and a curse. “I know my chances are one of the lowest in the tournament objectively,” Bluebaum told Lichess, “but the only goal is to fight for first place for as long as possible.”
