England in sight of semi-finals but face another trial by spin against Pakistan

After four wins in five games, and now just one away from sealing a place in the semi‑finals, it is hard to describe England’s progress through the World Cup as ugly. But it hasn’t been straightforward. Like an inverted swan, everyone can see them struggling – yet somehow their progress has been, up to this point, serene.

There are no bonus points available for artistic merit and to win tournaments it is necessary only to be, at each stage, slightly better than your opponents. Australia’s T20 champions of 2021, for example, were a side few considered the best in that competition – and were notably annihilated by England in the group stages – until Aaron Finch raised the trophy in Dubai.

Harry Brook continues to promise imminent liftoff. “Look, we still haven’t had that perfect game,” he said after the victory against Sri Lanka on Sunday. “With the bat we haven’t managed to get the big scores that we’d like and everybody likes watching. But I think that’s quite an exciting prospect. In my eyes, I see that as something coming very soon.”

But not, perhaps, imminently. The game against Pakistan on Tuesday promises to be another awkward one, given England’s struggles against spin and their opponents’ abundance of spinners.

Pakistan have bowled only 16.5 overs of seam in the tournament, fewer by far than any other team. So far in this tournament 78.2% of all the deliveries bowled by Pakistan have come from their spinners. Against India they bowled 17 consecutive overs of spin and that number hit 90%. They could well be plotting something similar in a high-stakes game against England. Defeat, after their first Super 8s fixture was rained off, would leave them on the brink of elimination.

“They struggled against the spinners,” Pakistan’s Sahibzada Farhan said of England’s performance against Sri Lanka. “We have some of the best spinners, so I am confident that we will give them a tough time. Morale is very high and we are fully confident.”

Evidently, England’s weakness against spin has not gone unnoticed and no team in this World Cup has faced as much of it. If the bald statistics do not suggest that they are completely hapless – 59.6% of the deliveries they have faced have been delivered by spinners, bringing an almost perfectly matching 59.4% of their wickets and 58% of their runs – their discomfort has been evident in the flesh.

So far Jacob Bethell has been dismissed only by spinners, while Brook has lost his wicket to spin in four games out of five. In England’s one defeat, against West Indies in Mumbai, he meekly prodded the ball back into the hands of Gudakesh Motie and afterwards said he would “much rather get caught on the boundary than the way I did today”. But Brook’s dismissals have continued to be characterised by timidity, including against Sri Lanka, when he was trapped lbw by Dunith Wellalage while trying to fend the ball to the leg-side.

“We were very good [against spin] in the bilateral series here against Sri Lanka,” Liam Dawson said. “We had a couple of tough games, but we won. We know we can bat a lot better than we have batted, but we’ve won games and that’s the main thing.”

On Sunday Dawson batted ahead of Jamie Overton, whose strength is power-hitting against pace. “We were just trying to hold him a little further back for when the seamers came on,” Dawson said.

While England have again chosen not to name their team until the toss, the fact that in this game the seamers may not come on at all means the choice between Overton and Luke Wood likely comes down to their bowling alone. Will the temptation not to change a winning team be trumped by the urge to tweak an unconvincing one?

One thing England do have in their favour is familiarity with their surroundings. Pakistan have played one game in Pallekele, a one-day international against India, in the past decade; England have played four T20s here in the past month and won them all.

For Farhan it is a completely new venue. “This is my first time here, but all our senior players have played here,” he said. “I’ve heard it’s good for batting and the ball comes on to the bat well. But England’s game against Sri Lanka was a little different. Tomorrow we’ll know how the wicket behaves.”

Farhan is the tournament’s top scorer with 220 runs but all of those came against the three weaker teams in their first-round group – against India he was dismissed for a duck. Like Sri Lanka’s Pathum Nissanka, whose rapid dismissal prompted the collapse on Sunday, his will be the wicket England want most of all when they start their work in the field. “Yes, they’ll definitely have a plan,” Farhan said. “But I also have a plan. They won’t be the only ones with a plan.”