Finals have almost arrived. These are the weaknesses that could expose the top eight

Finals have almost arrived. These are the weaknesses that could expose the top eight

Such games can be won and lost in moments. One came in the final quarter, as the Hawks surged. Jack Ginnivan, one Hawk who handled the occasion, had slotted a superb set-shot goal. The margin was cut to two points.

Karl Amon was trapped near the boundary. He had a pair of teammates near the boundary available. Whether it was exhaustion, panic or just failed execution, he unloaded a clumsy handball.

The umpire judged that he’d shown insufficient intent, paying the free on the boundary to dreadlocked Bruce Reville, who successfully hooked the shot for a critical goal that completely deflated the Hawthorn surge. If it was a tough call against Amon, Reville stepped up in his moment.

The controversial umpiring decision - a free kick paid against Hawthorn’s Karl Amon for insufficient intent deep into the last quarter.

The controversial umpiring decision – a free kick paid against Hawthorn’s Karl Amon for insufficient intent deep into the last quarter.Credit: Fox Footy

The Lions are the finished product. That they succeeded without Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry and Oscar McInerney, saw off a spirited Hawthorn and secured a top-four berth, is a measure of their quality.

The Hawks will end up either seventh or eighth, and will either travel to Fremantle or to Greater Western Sydney’s home. It will be a long way to the top from that parlous position.

And so the qualifying finals are set.

Adelaide will play Collingwood in a game with all manner of subplots arising from their last encounter.

The stage is set for another showdown between the Crows and Magpies.

The stage is set for another showdown between the Crows and Magpies.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images

Collingwood will not have Jeremy Howe and are long odds to regain Bobby Hill. The Crows have lost their premier match-winner, Izak Rankine to suspension for a homophobic comment, an event that creates another layer of intrigue.

Can Collingwood, sputtering and unconvincing in their final two months, rediscover the cohesion that put them well clear of the competition after 16 games? Can the old band get back in tune? Much will hinge on the fitness/form of Jordan De Goey, and whether his Bart Cummings preparation has him primed for spring success.

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Geelong will host the Lions, in a genuine 50-50 final that reprises their enthralling preliminary final – possibly the apogee of the 2024 finals series. The Lions beat the Cats twice in the home and away games, but those games may prove as relevant as the 2004 preliminary final between these clubs.

The Western Bulldogs’ season appears over, their minuscule chance of playing finals resting on the depleted Essendon, who must upset Gold Coast to put Bevo’s boys into the final eight.

Bulldogs, thus, complete the season with an astonishing percentage (137.0) for a team that will almost certainly finish ninth – a mark of their unmatched capacity to punish weak teams, whilst losing the vast majority of encounters with the top nine.

Where did they go awry? As Fremantle showed, the Dogs don’t defend the field or their back 50 as proficiently as the better sides, and their bottom four or five players in their 23 aren’t at the level of the finalists.

Fremantle deserved their home final. If they have not earned our trust, they are a team that is structurally sound at each end and will be favoured in their encounter with either Gold Coast (most likely) or Hawthorn.

The final round was notable, too, for the close results that almost proved so costly to Collingwood and GWS, as the Max Gawn-inspired Demons and revived Saints played without the fear of failure.

At the end, though, the teams that had the most to lose still found a way to win.

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