Key events
*Sinner 6-3 4-4 Zverev Excellent stuff from both players, Zverev measuring his approach far better and marching in confidently, Sinner on the slide and stretch … to somehow spirit a forehand winner cross-court! That’s got to be demoralising for the challenger, who does make 40-15 only to wham a forehand long. He just can’t get anything going on return, but if he can hold twice more he’ll have a shot at a breaker.
Sinner 6-3 3-4 Zverev* You have access to the best sports gear in the world and a name big enough to specify what you want, yet the get-up of neither even matches, let alone shows any sense of style; burgundy and red versus primrose and white, I really do not know. Back to the less important stuff, though, Zverev holds to 30 and will hope that a bit of scoreboard pressure persuades Sinner to drop his level.
*Sinner 6-3 3-3 Zverev Sinner forces Zverev back, then chops a rare drop for 15-0; it’s not the greatest iteration ever but it’s good enough, and will put into the German’s mind that one is possible. At 30-0, though, a double follows, Sinner’s first of the match, then Zverev steps in, turning up the power on a backhand to elicit an error. Pressure! But again, the champ forces his man back before inserting a rudimentary but effective drop, and from there, he closes out. Zverev remains at arm’s length, a child frantically swinging but unable to land a blow on his longer-limbed dad.
Sinner 6-3 2-3 Zverev* Groans from the crowd as a double hands over 15-all; they favoured Sinner at the start but having seen way the match is going they now favour themselves and their desire to see a close contest. So there are cheers when an ace makes 40-15, but sighs when a swiped backhand falls wide to make things close. Sinner, though, then zetzes long, and Zverev restores his lead in set two.
*Sinner 6-3 2-2 Zverev The first outward show of anger from Zverev, swishing racket after another unforced hands Sinner 15-0. It’s very quickly 40-0 and though, in theory, the German is only an error or two or a winner or two away from threatening the champ’s serve, following a love hold there’s no sense that in practice, it’s imminent.
Sinner 6-3 1-2 Zverev* Zverev collars a forehand into the net and trudges back to his mark, unhappy with his behaviour. He doesn’t appear to be enjoying this and a weak second serve sees him rush to the net, unable to control his volley when the inevitable pass comes; 0-30. The German is in trouble here and you feel that, if he’s broken here, the end might come quickly … Sinner manufactures the chance to smoke a forehand down the line, a shot he nails far more often that not … and nets. That’s a let-off for Zverev but he’s not in the clear yet, far from it, and his first double of the match could scarcely come at a worse time; 15-40. And though he saves one break point with an overhead, it doesn’t go where he planned it to, only just zipping in, which tells us that what we see is what is happening: he’s on the edge. But he makes deuce, nails an ace down the T – that’s more like it – then does just enough in the next rally, Sinner just unable to flick back a drop. That’s a monstrous hold, but Zverev has yet to find a way of disquieting the champ – and to win, he must, fast.
*Sinner 6-3 1-1 Zverev Up 15-0, Sinner overhits a forehand, but Zverev can’t put him under, a long backhand – his 15th unforced of the match to his opponent’s nine – quickly followed by a netted return. And another error, a long, impatient backhand, hands over an unnecessarily easy hold; Sinner is not really being tested on serve, and looks unflustered even for him.
Sinner 6-3 0-1 Zverev* A netted backhand means 0-15 and, even at this early stage, pressure for Zverev – all the more so when he then serves long. But from there, the German makes 40-15 … only to thwack a smash long and plenty. No matter: a second-serve ace, curling away down the T, seals an essential hold.
Zverev leaves court for a moment and I’m not surprised, this is going exactly as he didn’t want it to – Sinner is playing with such easy power, patience and intelligence. I’m not sure how he counters that, because going for shots isn’t working, while stopping in rallies definitely won’t work.
*Sinner 6-3 Zverev Sinner quickly makes 15-0 then seizes control of a physical rally with a running, crouching forehand down the line. And even when he’s caught at the net next rally he covers it brilliantly, too clever for Zverev and, with a flicked backhand volley he raises three set points, obviously converting the first with an ace down the T. He looks too good at the moment, talking of which I urge you to wrap your ears around the below, an Afrobeats and amapiano set, brought to you by my guy DJ Shagy, from Polo Beach Club, Accra – the greatest discotheque in the world.
Sinner 5-3 Zverev* Big strikes down the middle then Sinner manufactures a bit of angle and Zverev nets … then goes long on the forehand. And though a fine serve out wide is too good, another weak volley gives Sinner time to neck an espresso before flipping a forehand winner down the line, raising two break points in the process. So Zverev nails his fastest serve of the match so far, another persuades Sinner to return long, and though he can’t close out on his first advantage, a brutal second serve down the middle earns another … only for him to net a forehand. This feels like a big moment in the match and it’s Sinner who embraces it, a slide and stretch, legs akimbo like Bambi on ice, setting him for a glorious backhand winner down the line both probable and improbable. Again, Zverev saves the break point and again Sinner raises one, the more consistent and definitive hitter, and this time when the German impatiently comes in off a weak approach, he can’t return the pass! The champ strikes first and will now serve for set one!
*Sinner 4-3 Zverev An overhead from close to the baseline, confidently despatched, makes 15-0, then a return clips the top of the net and drops on Zverev’s side. Sinner then strays fractionally long on the backhand and nets a forehand, offering a glimmer at 30-all; a service-winner down the T follows as Tim notes the side that’s being served from now, to the right of the umpire’s chair, is the one has seen the overwhelming majority of the breaks as it faces the wind. But when Zverev nets, Sinner holds, and at change of ends, he’s asking the umpire for the return of his racket which he says he needs back now, having sent them to the stringer an hour before the match. This doesn’t feel like the kind of distraction he requires.
Sinner 3-3 Zverev* After a tentative start it seems like Zverev is now more committed to attack, but he can hit accurately enough for long enough for that to work? He hauls a forehand wide to cede 15-all and then offers a chance on a second serve, but Sinner’s return down the line is wide. An ace down the T follows, then one out wide, and the German nonchalantly returns the balls. This is very tight, intense and intensifying.
*Sinner 3-2 Zverev Zverev’s best point so far, taking control of the first rally of the game and refusing to let up until a big forehand winner secures it. Then, well in the next, he strays wide with one that flies over the sideline but he’s looking to attack now, settled into the match; that’s a good sign for him and for us, though a service-winner down the T makes 30-15. This is shaping up now, Sinner soon netting a volley to cede deuce, then Zverev slightly overhits a forehand cross after being sent wider than ideal. An error from the Italian does then restore deuce, but from there he closes out as Zverev looks to force the issue, the sense that Sinner’s consistency from the back might just be the crucial aspect which ultimately defines and settles this match.
Sinner 2-2 Zverev*Excellent return from Sinner, lacing on to the line – if he can can get after second serves regularly, he’ll win – and a subsequent error from Zverev means at 0-30, there’s pressure. All the more so when, at 15-30, he tries a drop that’s too loopy, especially headed cross, the time it takes to get there allowing Sinner plenty of time to plan his pass. Two break points … both saved confidently enough, thanks mainly to two big first serves. And from there, Zverev powers through deuce, celebrating his hold with a loud “Let’s go!”, arguably the worst war-cry in sport. This is heating up…
*Sinner 2-1 Zverev At 30-0, the first serious rally on the Sinner serve, Zverev thrashing its 23rd stroke long. A service-winner and venomous forehand clean-up follows; the champ has settled immediately.
Sinner 1-1 Zverev* Silence as Zverev tosses and already he’s playing a rally longer than anything we saw in the last game – perhaps put together. But Sinner swipes wide looking for a backhand winner, then hooks wide on the forehand; 30-0. Zverev, who knows he plays safe on big points, is hitting a lot down the middle while Sinner seeks winners, and as I type the champ finds his first of the game, an inside-out backhand pass … immediately cancelled out with an ace. A long backhand follows, and that’s Zverev’s hold sealed; he’ll feel better for that, but so far looks a lot less chill than his famously imperturbable opponent.
*Sinner 1-0 Zverev (*denotes server) Is Zverev nervous? I know it’s become more fashionable to let an opponent serve but I thought he’d want to grab hold of things immediately, setting a tone and establishing a lead. Sinner begins with an ace down the T and very quickly secures a love hold. I doubt that was Zverev’s plan and he’s not exactly felt ball on strings to settle him as he prepares to deliver himself.
Zverev puts Sinner in to serve, ready … play.
It’s hard to see Sinner playing poorly enough to lose this in three or four. If he’s to win Zverev will, I think, have to outlast him down the stretch – something of which he’s not yet show he’s capable.
And here come our players!
What I love about Sinner is how comfortable he is in in his own skin, able to laugh at himself without compromising. He knows he lacks the magnetism and charisma some have, but is so at ease with who he is he’s turned that into magnetism and charisma of its own.
Sinner is 94% on hard courts since winning in Australia in 2024, beating Zverev in their only meeting this year. Alcaraz gives him grief because of how quickly he plays, but he moves so well and hits so consistently, even a unique genius must play lights out to put one over on him.
So how will our match today go? Sinner is favourite partly because he knows he can do it, 2-0 in finals relative to Zverev’s 0-2. But he also hits more consistently and, tough both shots have improved, Zverev can struggle on forehand and volley with Sinner good enough to target both. I expect the champ to sit on the baseline, plant feet if he can, and look to keep Zverev moving and guessing; Zverev will, I think, hope to draw him in, in order to hit passes.
Yesterday was a good day for this blog, part two: longtime and even occasional readers will know that the good stuff comes from Coach Calvin Betton. Well, Coach Calv and his charge, Henry Patten, along with Harri Heliovaara, have now added the men’s doubles Australian Open title to the one they won at Wimbledon earlier this year. Mazal tov!
I post this not just because she’s a favourite but because Zverev would do well to take heed: another player with a massive game but prone to collapse, who can’t quite deliver his best when he really needs to.
Maddy explains in more detail:
I absolutely love this:
I finally got to the point where I was OK if it didn’t happen,” she said. “I didn’t need it to feel I had a good career or that I deserved to be talked about as a great player. Finally letting go of that internal talk gave me the ability to go out and play some really good tennis to win a grand slam.”
I remember Andy Murray saying that after he lost the 2012 Wimbledon final to Roger Federer, he had to deal with the prospect of never winning a major. Two months later, he was Olympic champion and US Open champion.
Yesterday was a good day for this blog, one of our longtime favourites, Our Maddy, finally working out how to create the destiny she thought had escaped her.
Agreed. His serve and backhand are among the best shots in the game, but can Zverev continue to aggress if and when it gets tight? Sinner knows he can rely on himself to treat every point the same.
Preamble
A year ago, Jannik Sinner was just another promising talent, in the liminal zone as a player who may or may not win the big pots expected of him. And then he came from two sets down to beat Daniil Medvedev, enshrining him as a grand slam champion and changing the nature of his tennis overnight.
Since then, Sinner has played with a different authority. Relaxed by the fact that he has done it and secure in the certainty that he can do it, the difference is that between hoping and knowing: mentality and physicality have take his tennis to another plane, that no one can ever take away from him.
Alexander Zverev has existed in that liminal zone for some years now. In 2020, he lost the final of the US Open despite leading Dominc Thiem by two sets to love, then last year he led Carlos Alcaraz two sets to one in the final of the French Open, only to lose the last two sets 6-1 6-2.
And though he is not someone – like, say, your Mario Berrettnis and your Casper Ruuds of this world – who needs a whole host of things to go wrong for others in order to win – but at 27, he’ll be wondering and rightly so. He is running out of time.
He knows that Novak Djokovic, injured here, looks good for at least another year. He knows that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, both multiple grand-slam champs, are only going to get better, and by several orders of magnitude. He knows that Learner Tien and João Fonseca are coming. He knows that if he does not make this his moment his, another might not come along soon, or ever. But he also knows that if he does, there is no reason for it to be his last, the difference that between everything and nothing. This is absolutely gargantuan.
Play: 7.30pm local, 8.30am GMT
