Kozzy Pickett has signed until 2034. What are the risks for the Demons’ $12m deal?

Twelve months later and Oliver was the one looking to get out. He wanted to go to Geelong and the Cats were prepared to cover his salary, but they wanted a lighter trade. The deal fell over and again things were patched up. This year, he has been playing good, but not $1.3 million-a-year, footy.

Meantime the Demons had traded in and out former Collingwood ruckman Brodie Grundy, who the Pies had signed on a big money long-term contract, but Collingwood were unable or unwilling to keep.

Gawn is another Demon on a $1 million-a-year-plus deal. His last two contracts have been for four years each, so in the scheme of things, not relatively long term. If there was a lower-risk player for a million-dollar contract than Gawn, I’m yet to see it.

The point is that long deals, or big contracts, are not always wrong. They are always entered with the belief they are mitigating the risk of losing the player, not creating a risk.

“Kozzy” Pickett’s biggest risk was flight – the attraction of a return to Perth, with Fremantle wooing him – and so the Demons have safeguarded against that.

Pickett has become an excellent midfielder after being predominantly a small forward for much of his career, having played 116 games and kicked 182 goals since his debut in 2020. There are not too many small forwards who would draw rich long-term deals, but Pickett is one of them.

Given he has become a goal-kicking midfielder, a disruptor in the middle of the ground and terrifying for oppositions forward of the ball, he is now far more valuable.

Melbourne lost their first five games of the season, the first three of which – GWS, North and Gold Coast at the MCG – in which Pickett did not play because he was suspended for rough conduct. Would they lose all three if he were in the team? His form this year would say probably not.

You pay players according to the market and, were he allowed to have come out of contract at the end of next year, the market would have given Pickett what Melbourne did and more. Good players from interstate always get paid more not to move home.

The other question about the new deal is why now? Why, when Pickett was contracted to the end of next year, do you extend now?

The answer is because you can. By doing it, you stop thoughts of moving back home from percolating in his mind. You give him certainty in his life and football and if he later decides he wants to move to Perth, then you have control in the negotiations.

Did the extension really have to be that long? Would four or five extra years not be enough? Maybe part of the thinking was that deals as long as Pickett’s can provide flexibility to move money around according to how the club’s salary cap is placed. With Steven May and Gawn in their final years, some cap space will open up when they might pay Pickett more in later years.

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The broader question for Melbourne is: where does this leave an already very tight salary cap and the future of other players at the club?

Immediately, it doesn’t change much because Pickett was already contracted for next year.

The question that is harder to answer is how a club with some of the highest-paid players and some of the longest deals in the AFL can be sitting in 14th place, having finished last year in the same spot on the ladder? Is this not the definition of over-paying for mediocre performance?

Well, yes, but these things evolve organically. When they signed some of these deals they had just won the flag and were plunging on towards another, committing to players who were the nucleus of a team they thought was trending to greatness, and were the reason they won that flag in 2021.

What we know right now is that Pickett might not be Melbourne’s best player, but it is only Gawn ahead of him.

Is he a risk? As we know from the Oliver and Petracca experiences, all players can become a risk, but he gives little indication of it.

Melbourne figured the bigger risk with Pickett was not signing him.