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It was always going to be tough for Leeds to get something from Arsenal in last Saturday’s clash at Elland Road.
But losing 4-0 meant a rather abrupt end to an unbeaten home run that had stretched back to November when they let a 1-0 lead slip in a 2-1 defeat to third-placed Aston Villa.
Leeds have clearly picked up since switching systems under Daniel Farke, but the negative spin is that they’ve now won just one of their last seven Premier League games.
While the Whites have taken just one point from the last two games, relegation rivals Nottingham Forest banked four in that period after an impressive 2-0 win at Brentford, followed by a 1-1 home draw with Crystal Palace when they had Neco Williams sent off on the stroke of half-time.
It means the two are level on points and even have the same goal difference of -11. Leeds nudge ahead of Forest due to having scored seven more goals.
While a point apiece along with a West Ham loss would keep both seven points clear of the drop zone, one of these sides – either 16th-placed Leeds or 17th-placed Forest – could really boost their hopes of survival by taking a win.
Forest are seeking a double over Leeds having won the first meeting 3-1 at the City Ground in early November.
How to watch Leeds v Nottingham Forest
Leeds v Nottingham Forest kicks off at 20:00 GMT on Friday, February 6 at Elland Road.
The game will be shown live on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event, with coverage starting from 19:30.
TalkSPORT will provide full live radio coverage.
Leeds team news
Despite the 4-0 loss to Arsenal, Farke isn’t likely to change too much in the Leeds starting XI although Sean Longstaff could come in for Ilia Gruev in midfield.
Once more, Farke has to do without Dan James and Lukas Nmecha but Jaka Bijol looks set to return after missing out for three weeks with a hamstring problem.
James Justin should have shaken off a toe injury but may start on the bench while Anton Stach is set to be absent with a hip issue.
Leeds expected line-up
(3-4-2-1) Darlow; Rodon, Bijol, Struijk; Bogle, Ampadu, Longstaff, Gudmundsson; Aaronson, Okafor; Calvert-Lewin.
Nottingham Forest team news
Forest moved for Stefan Ortega in the transfer window and the former Manchester City goalkeeper could come straight in with Matz Sels picking up a groin injury against Crystal Palace.
Neco Williams is ruled out through suspension after his red card against Palace while, with Callum Hudson-Odoi hampered by a shoulder injury, Dan Ndoye may play a right-sided attacking role.
Chris Wood, Nicolo Savona and John Victor are all in the treatment room as Forest seek a third straight away win in the Premier League.
Nottingham Forest expected line-up
(4-2-3-1) Ortega; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato; Sangare, Anderson; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Dominguez; Jesus.
Leeds v Nottingham Forest stats
– Leeds have won their last three Premier League home games against Nottingham Forest (1996, 1999 & 2023) and have never failed to score in their 25 top-flight home matches against the Tricky Trees.
– Nottingham Forest are looking to complete the league double over Leeds for the first time since 2013-14, and for just the second time ever in the top-flight after 1995-96.
– Nottingham Forest have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League games against promoted sides (W9 D5), a 1-0 home defeat against Sunderland earlier this season.
– Leeds have won all four of their Premier League night matches at Elland Road this season (7.30pm or later), most recently a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace in December.
– After a run of six defeats in seven Premier League games in October/November (W1), Leeds have lost just two of their last 11 since the start of December (W3 D6).
– Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W2 D2). It’s their longest run without defeat this season, last going longer between December and January last season (8).
– Only bottom side Wolves (6.7%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Nottingham Forest in the Premier League this season (8.5%).
Leeds v Nottingham Forest predictions
In some ways, it seems a little harsh that this is 16th v 17th as both teams have been better than that for a little while.
Indeed, a Premier League table over the last 10 games would have Leeds in 13th and Forest 14th.
In other words, both league position and medium-term form suggest these two are fairly evenly matched.
A night game at Elland Road always bumps up Leeds’ chances but Dyche will relish the atmosphere and back-to-back away wins show that he’s finding the right formula for Forest on the road.
A draw is the call at 12/5 and this has the air of a 1-1 which is priced at 6/1.
With Dominic Calvert-Lewin cooling off – he’s scored just once in the last six games – Morgan Gibbs-White is the best bet for goalscorer punts.
The England midfielder netted in the 3-1 win over Leeds at the City Ground and has scored in three of his last five Premier League games.
Gibbs-White is an attractive 4/1 to score anytime.
