The Red Sox are entering a Roman reign, but is Boston’s big move worth the price?
In this week’s roundtable, FOX Sports MLB reporters Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar answer that question, look at Kyle Tucker’s summer struggles, and pick which contender team could fade in the fall. But let’s first start out West with the enigmatic A’s.
1. The Athletics can’t pitch, and that’s why they sit in last place in the AL West. But their lineup, including Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers, has been fantastic. Are the A’s quietly some better pitching away from contending?
Kavner: There were some who picked the A’s as a dark-horse team to make the playoffs before the season based on the young talent in place on the offensive side, and while that prognostication doesn’t look too good now, the growth of those pieces suggests that even a mediocre pitching staff could help them contend soon. Now, finding a way to entice pitchers to go to a minor league ballpark — let alone one where the ball flies the way it has at Sutter Health Park — was going to be difficult even before Luis Severino posted his stark home (1-9, 6.34 ERA) and road (5-2, 3.17) splits, which might scare prospective free agents off even more. But, maybe some pitchers will overlook that when they see the potential in a roster that includes an All-Star starting shortstop in Jacob Wilson, the best hitter in baseball over the last two months in Kurtz, plus Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom, a group that should mash for years to come. If the prospects in the Mason Miller trade pan out, too, brighter days could be ahead in the not-too-distant future.
Thosar: Kurtz is the frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year award after his eye-popping four-homer game a couple of weeks ago, and right behind him is teammate Jacob Wilson, whose 119 wRC+ is third-best among AL rookies, trailing only Kurtz and Boston’s Roman Anthony. The A’s have three hitters in the AL’s top 30 (Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, and Wilson) in terms of wRC+, which paints an offense that’s in line with most playoff contenders — better even than Detroit, Boston, and Houston overall. But their pitching staff is not only ranked the worst in the AL, it’s also 28th in MLB. That was to be expected, since it will continue to be difficult to entice quality arms to pitch in the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, short of offering them an outrageous contract (though that hasn’t worked out so well for Luis Severino, either). So, yes, the A’s could contend for the playoffs with better pitching, but given their ballpark situation for at least the next 3-4 years, it’s a bleak outlook.
Nick Kurtz has had a breakout season with the A’s, but the team has stumbled due to poor pitching. (Photo by Alyssa McDaniel/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
2. The Brewers were the first team to 70 wins, partly due to in-season pickup Andrew Vaughn. Is he genuinely a better hitter now than he was with the White Sox?
Kavner: After watching Gavin Sheets put up his best season as a pro in his first year after leaving Chicago, it doesn’t seem too far-fetched that a player with the raw power and pedigree of Vaughn, a former Golden Spikes Award winner at Cal and No. 3 overall pick, would find another level with a fresh start on a contending team. Now, no one could’ve anticipated this kind of dramatic turnaround this quickly. Is he all of a sudden one of the best hitters in MLB and a 1.000+ OPS guy the rest of the year in Milwaukee? Probably not, but the underlying numbers suggest this upswing isn’t just a fluke. With a faster yet more compact swing, he’s managing to hit the ball harder and get to his pull-side power while cutting his strikeout rate almost in half from what it was with the White Sox. The sample size is still small, but this is the best 22-game stretch of his career. Even if he doesn’t stay this hot, there are reasons to believe he’s a better hitter now than what we had seen to this point in his career.
Thosar: Not even the Brewers could’ve anticipated that Vaughn would go from hitting .211 in Triple-A at the time they traded for him, to becoming the scariest hitter in Milwaukee’s lineup a month later. I mean, the difference in his production with Chicago is staggering. Vaughn slashed .189/.218/.314 with five home runs, seven walks, and 19 RBIs in 48 games with the White Sox this season before they demoted him to the minors at the end of May. Jump forward to today, and he’s slashing .377/.444/.701 with seven home runs, 10 walks, and 28 RBIs in 22 games with the Brewers. The 27-year-old said he hasn’t tinkered with his swing or approach since getting traded, but there are obvious differences, including his newfound plate discipline. If Vaughn can continue to command the zone and cut down on his chase rate and strikeouts, then the underlying power numbers have always been there to suggest this version of Vaughn, particularly stretched out over the second half of the season, can be sustainable.
Andrew Vaughn is a surprise standout for the Brewers. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
3. Roman Anthony just got paid by the Red Sox with a $130 million extension that could escalate to $230 million. Do you see this move for the rookie as an aggressive one, or just right?
Kavner: I think it’s a prudent move for a surging Red Sox team that traded away Rafael Devers, did little of note at the deadline and understands the pain of watching homegrown superstars leave town. From Brayan Bello to Ceddanne Rafaela to Kristian Campbell, the Red Sox have been proactive in finding ways to keep their young talents through what would have been their early free-agent years. The MVP ceiling is higher in Anthony than any of the aforementioned players, which is reflected in the total value of the new contract. The team assumes some risk, considering Anthony is not even 50 games into his big-league career, but the 21-year-old phenom with preternatural plate discipline and a penchant for hard hits is already batting 26% better than league average and playing above-average outfield defense. Rather than watch him reach his potential and then sign a Juan Soto or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. type of deal at 26, the Red Sox now ensure he’ll be in Boston throughout his 20s. Anthony’s already a top-of-the-lineup force, and if he starts to lift the ball more often, he possesses all the tools to develop into one of the most feared hitters in the game.
Thosar: This was a smart move by the Red Sox, especially when you consider the climate in which they did it. The heat was turned all the way up on Craig Breslow and John Henry after trading away homegrown slugger Rafael Devers, and it brought back depressing memories of when the Red Sox failed to sign Mookie Betts to a long-term contract. So when the opportunity came to lock up Roman Anthony long-term, Boston moved quickly in part to get back in the good graces of the fanbase, and to lay the groundwork for the 21-year-old to become the next homegrown star. Not even 50 games into his major-league career, Anthony is a strong contender to finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, which means he would earn a full year of service time. In that case, the Red Sox’ extension buys out three free-agent years, all while ensuring that Anthony can no longer maximize what he could make in his arbitration. After so much of what this front office has done has been puzzling, this is a deal that makes sense.
Roman Anthony is only a rookie, but he’s already been rewarded with a big extension. (Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
4. Is it time to start worrying about Kyle Tucker? The slugger has hit just one home run since July 1, and is batting .208/.353/.271 in that stretch.
Kavner: My main concern is whether he’s playing hurt. He exited a game with a finger injury on June 1. To that point, he had a .524 slugging percentage, a .918 OPS and an 11.9% strikeout rate. Since then, he has a .413 slugging percentage, a .786 OPS and a 17.5% strikeout rate. He also missed a couple games after fouling a ball off his knee on July 22 and has a .685 OPS with two extra-base hits in 11 games since. It’s possible this is just a blip in yet another sensational season. In 2023, he had a .681 OPS in May and an OPS over .850 every other month. In 2022, he had a .625 OPS in July and followed that up with a .921 OPS the following month. These things can happen, but the precipitous drop-off does have me wondering how healthy he is.
Thosar: It’s surprising to think Tucker has been a below-league average hitter since July 1 (.624 OPS, 91 wRC+), which is his worst-career 28-game stretch since May 2023, when he recorded a .681 OPS. But Tucker has gone through these stretches when he’s played full seasons. In July 2022, he posted a .625 OPS and rebounded for a .921 OPS in August. In April 2021, he had a .610 OPS and then he hit a groove for a .940 OPS the following month. Those are all the years that Tucker has played 100+ games, including this season. So, his history tells us a dip in his numbers is par for the course when he’s on pace to finish the season with a minimum of 140 games played. That theory will be proven right if he picks up his production over this next week or so. If not, then it’s fair to question whether the finger injury Tucker sustained on June 1 could be affecting him more than he’s admitting. Still, I wouldn’t start worrying about the four-time All-Star unless the past month’s slump trickles into, say, September.
Kyle Tucker is having a summer not to remember. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
5. Prediction time! Name one team currently holding onto a playoff spot that will fumble it before the season’s end.
Kavner: Is it too boring if I say the current playoff field is the one we’ll see in October? All right, fine, fine, that’s no fun. As tempting as it is to pick one of the New York teams here, I’ll say the Astros. Their first half was incredible considering all the injuries they had weathered, but we’re starting to see the cracks in their depleted roster. They have a losing record since the start of July, the Mariners might now be the most talented team in the American League after beefing up at the deadline, and the Rangers have finally started to wake up. A lot of Houston’s pieces are expected back in the second half, but who knows how long it will take for them to get back up to speed — or where the Astros will be in the standings when those reinforcements arrive.
Thosar: So much can change in the next seven-plus weeks, but if we’re looking at recent trends… It’s the Mets. Among the 12 teams currently holding onto playoff spots, the Mets have the second-worst run differential (+35), behind only the Mariners (+30). But Seattle just significantly improved at the trade deadline with the additions of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, and it enters Friday having won seven of its last 10 games. The Mets, on the other hand, have won only two of their last 10 games and focused on beefing up their bullpen (albeit with splashy, substantial pickups) rather than addressing their weaknesses in the rotation and lineup (sorry — adding Cedric Mullins isn’t a major offensive upgrade). New York’s new and improved bullpen can’t save games if the offense doesn’t give their relievers a lead. That being said, you’d think the top three of Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso will have to wake up at some point. But, until they do, the Mets are on their way to fumbling this.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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