Key events
Greg Wood
1pm PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKES preview
Royal Dress, Bermuda Longtail and Sparks Fly have all been attracting money this morning, probably because all have soft-ground experience. Royal Dress boasts first-time up wins in each of the last two seasons, one on soft ground and the other on heavy, while Sparks Fly won two Listed events on heavy ground last autumn. This is a very open contest to kick off the card, though, and Skellet – top of the Timeform ratings – and SIRONA, a winner on soft at Newmarket last September, also come into the reckoning. Ryan Moore was aboard Sirona for that win, he is back in her saddle today and she was not far behind a very useful opponent in Crimson Advocate at Goodwood on her seasonal debut, so odds of around 7-1 could prove to be generous.
SELECTION: SIRONA
Greg Wood
3.30pm The Derby preview
Our detailed runner-by-runner guide to the big race is here, and a preview of all of today’s ITV Racing coverage is here, but in summary, I’m not at all convinced that Ruling Court, the 2,000 Guineas winner, will get home over 12 furlongs, and also a little sceptical about the strength of the Leopardstown trial won by Delacroix, or whether this step up in trip is what he needs. Lambourn’s defeat of Lazy Griff in the 12-furlong Chester Vase could seem ever more significant if the rain arrives, and the French-bred Midak, unbeaten in three, is also likely to appreciate 12 furlongs on an easy surface, while Stanhope Gardens has taken an unconventional route to Epsom but if Ralph Beckett thinks he deserves to be in the field, he probably does. The Dante form won by Beckett’s Pride Of Arras, with Damysus, Nightwalker and The Lion In Winter in behind, strikes me as potentially the strongest on offer though, and while Damysus and Nightwalker both have potential to improve on their York form, that applies equally – in fact, arguably more so, to the twice-raced PRIDE OF ARRAS.
SELECTION: PRIDE OF ARRAS
Key form guide (Via YouTube):
Dante Stakes, York, 1m 2f 56yd (Pride Of Arras, Damysus, Nightwalker, The Lion In Winter).
Derby Trial Stakes, Leopardstown, 1m 2f (Delacroix).
2,000 Guineas, Newmarket, 1m (Ruling Court, Tornado Alert).
Chester Vase, Chester, 1m 4f 63yd (Lambourn, Lazy Griff).
Prix Greffulhe, Saint-Cloud, 1m 2f 97yd (Midak).
Conditions Stakes, Salisbury, 1m. (Stanhope Gardens).
Autumn Stakes, Newmarket, 1m. (Delacroix, Stanhope Gardens)
Greg Wood
2.45pm “DASH” HANDICAP preview
The “Dash” for older, seasoned handicappers comes with pretty much the same comments attached as its predecessor. Desert Cop, unraced since winning a conditions event over five furlongs in Bahrain in March, has what is probably the pick of the draw in stall 19, but he has little form away from a decent surface and The Bell Conductor, in 17, and a former winner of this race, Tees Spirit, next to him in 16, look more likely to make the most of their luck in the draw. TEES SPIRIT is a stone higher in the handicap now than he was when successful three years ago, but Jack Nicholls takes off a useful 7lb and his affinity with the track and trip could make him a very interesting bet at around 16-1.
SELECTION: TEES SPIRIT
Fair Wind and Vintage Clarets have been the most backed on Oddschecker today, around 20% of stakes each. Vintage Clarets has been the subject of the biggest bet of the week.
Greg Wood
2.10pm “DASH” HANDICAP preview
The first of two sprints down what is generally reckoned to be the fastest five-furlong course on the planet, downhill all the way until the rise to the line from around a half-furlong out, by which time they have all built up too much momentum to notice. The high stalls towards the stands’ side are very much the place to be if there has been any rain around, as the top of the camber drains more rapidly than the inside, and Ruby’s Profit, who was the likely favourite in any case after a comfortable win at Goodwood – a similar downhill track – last time, has the plum draw in 18. She will be tough to beat from there, although Blinky, next door in 17, is a danger, and the super-speedy Against The Wind is another that could take a hand if he makes a quick getaway from six.
SELECTION: RUBY’S PROFIT
Ruby’s Profit taken one quarter of all total stakes on Oddschecker this morning. Stormy Impact has been backed in from 12s to 8s.
Greg Wood
1.35pm DIOMED STAKES preview
In some respects, the most interesting runner in this all-aged event is the three-year-old Royal Playwright, who ran ninth, beaten around five lengths, behind Pride Of Arras in the Dante Stakes at York last time. A decent showing from Andrew Balding’s colt would be a boost for the Knavesmire form, but he may have his work cut out to win with DOCKLANDS also in the field. Harry Eustace’s five-year-old is without a win since landing the ultra-competitive Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot two summers ago, but he has been racing in Group One company for the most part and acquitting himself well. He was, admittedly, a beaten favourite when dropping to Listed company for his seasonal debut at Ascot, but was only half a length behind John Gosden’s Sardinian Warrior, a four-year-old who looks to be on a fast-track to the top. Persica also drops in grade after finishing 12 lengths last in the Group One Lockinge last time, while Ice Max, ninth on soft ground in last season’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot, is worth a second look, especially if the going eases.
SELECTION: DOCKLANDS
Over one-third of all bets at Oddschecker have been on Docklands. Royal Playwright has gone from 8-1 to 9-2 this morning with the biggest bet today in the race placed on him.
Greg Wood
1pm PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKES preview
Royal Dress, Bermuda Longtail and Sparks Fly have all been attracting money this morning, probably because all have soft-ground experience. Royal Dress boasts first-time up wins in each of the last two seasons, one on soft ground and the other on heavy, while Sparks Fly won two Listed events on heavy ground last autumn. This is a very open contest to kick off the card, though, and Skellet – top of the Timeform ratings – and SIRONA, a winner on soft at Newmarket last September, also come into the reckoning. Ryan Moore was aboard Sirona for that win, he is back in her saddle today and she was not far behind a very useful opponent in Crimson Advocate at Goodwood on her seasonal debut, so odds of around 7-1 could prove to be generous.
SELECTION: SIRONA
Bermuda Longtail (11-2 to 9-2 ) has been the best-backed on Oddschecker today, with 20% of stakes wagered. The biggest bet taken for the race has also been for Bermuda Longtail.
If you want to follow where the money is going here are the market movers courtesy of Oddschecker:
1.35pm Royal Playwright 8-1 to 9-2
3.30pm Lambourn 12-1 to 7-1
5.40pm Strike Red 9-1 to 5-1
If you’re having a flutter in the other races today at Epsom please note these horses won’t be turning up. This is your current list of non-runners:
1.35pm Betfred Diomed Stakes
4 Cairo
2.10pm Betfred “Dash” Handicap
12 Cressida Wildes (Going)
16 Cape Sovereign (IRE) (Going)
4.15pm Northern Dancer Handicap
8 Sam Hawkens (IRE) (Self Certificate, Abscess)
16 Galactic Charm (Going)
There’s been a lot of talk (some of it from yours truly) about whether jockeys will take their runners in the Derby to the nearside as they tend to do when the ground is soft at Epsom. That will be such a temptation if there is significant rain by the time the Derby gets underway. Derby historian Michael Church says it’s not happened since 1919 and Derby-winning jockey-turned-pundit Martin Dwyer told the Racing Post: “The Derby is a special race and it’s a big gamble to take if you’re going to do that. I’d be very doubtful …. the main reason is they take the rail away [to its innermost line] and it’s always fresh ground. Once they take the rail in the fresh ground cancels out the slight advantage of coming up the hill to race on quicker ground.”
Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper did tell ITV Racing this morning that the going currently is virtually even across the track with the middle being slightly faster so there is definitely no advantage as it stands.
The big question everyone is asking is if, and when, it’s going to start raining at Epsom. Our correspondent Greg Wood is there and walking the track and his social media pic is of a brooding sky … watch this space.
Preamble
Greg Wood
Good morning from an overcast but, for the moment at least, dry Epsom racecourse, where after three months of scarcely any rainfall at all, as much as 10mm is forecast to arrive before the Derby’s scheduled off-time at 3.30pm.
That would be more than enough to transform the shape and likely outcome of today’s Classic, with Ruling Court, the 2,000 Guineas winner, a possible non-runner if it gets really soft, and various outsiders coming into the reckoning.
The 9.30am going bulletin from the track this morning reported that the going had actually quickened slightly overnight after 2.2mm in all, to good, good to soft in places.
A yellow weather warning for thunderstorms is in place from 9am to 6pm, however, and the concern is that if a storm does hit the track, several millimetres of rain could hit the track in a very short space of time. There is some leeway built in to schedule, with a 45-minute gap between the Derby and the subsequent raced at 4.15, which would allow for a brief postponement if a storm is expected to blow over, but some nervy hours lie ahead for Jim Allen, Epsom’s new general manager, and his team.
Hopefully, of course, it won’t come to that, and while the forecast may affect the walk-up audience who can watch the race for free on the Hill, the Derby itself promises to be a compelling renewal of the premier Classic, with 19 runners, the biggest field since Kris Kin’s year in 2003, due to go to post.
The early betting news is that Ruling Court, unsurprisingly, is on the drift, all the way out to 7-1 in fact from around 9-2 on Friday afternoon, while Delacroix, the winner of Leopardstown’s Derby Trial, is firming up at the top of the market at 5-2. Pride Of Arras, the Dante Stakes winner, is a 9-2 chance, with Lambourn and The Lion In Winter, stable companions of Delacroix at the Aidan O’Brien yard, both on 8-1. The former, though, is on the way in, thanks to a strong-staying win in the Chester Vase, while The Lion In Winter is drifting.
A fascinating and dramatic afternoon lies ahead, and you can, as ever, follow all the action here on the blog as it happens.
