Hawthorn have performed well outside Victoria without much reward until beating GWS by 19 points, and will have no fear of Adelaide Oval after their last trip there.
They thrashed Collingwood and Melbourne before running Brisbane close at the Gabba in round 24.
Selection: Rachele’s return from a knee injury is the biggest news for the Crows, and this final overall. They will hope he hits the ground running because their forward line has lacked class in Rankine’s absence.
The intrigue on the Hawks’ side is whether they stick with Jack Gunston, Mabior Chol and Calsher Dear as their tall forwards, after dropping Mitch Lewis in preference of Sam Butler against the Giants. Neither Dear – who was subbed out – nor Chol had a big impact.
X-factor: Riley Thilthorpe kicked four goals in a towering performance against Hawthorn last time and was one of their best performers in the Collingwood defeat. Thilthorpe not only boasts monstrous height for a key forward, but is athletic enough to be dangerous at ground level.
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Connor Macdonald stole the limelight in the Hawks’ win over GWS, but Nick Watson is well overdue to tear a game apart. “The Wizard” has not kicked more than two goals in any of his past nine matches, but proved in last year’s finals that he can be a difference-maker.
Key stats: These teams have contrasting styles when it comes to moving the ball. Only Brisbane and Geelong kick the ball more than Adelaide, who handball less than anyone, whereas Hawthorn rank No.4 for average handballs. That distinction was apparent in their round 21 clash, where the Crows had 215 kicks and 104 handballs, compared to the Hawks’ 186 and 169, respectively.
Early tip: Adelaide by 17.
Lachie Neale won’t feature in the rest of Brisbane’s finals campaign because of a calf injury.Credit: AFL Photos
Second semi-final
Brisbane v Gold Coast
Gabba, Saturday, September 13, 7.35pm AEST
Storyline to watch: Geelong and Collingwood missed the finals after their respective 2022 and 2023 flag wins, so the Lions at least avoided that fate. However, Chris Fagan’s men won’t want to become the first club since Melbourne three years ago to suffer a straight-sets finals exit as the reigning premiers.
The Cats comprehensively outplayed Brisbane on Friday night, and the Lions will be without injured pair Lachie Neale (calf) and Eric Hipwood (ACL). They will have to reach into their depth at both positions, but Neale’s absence places more pressure on a midfield that has a mighty task against a Suns on-ball brigade led by Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell.
Matt Rowell has a big role to play against Brisbane.Credit: Getty Images
Gold Coast achieved history by qualifying for September for the first time, then winning their maiden final, but defeating their great rivals to advance to a preliminary final would be massive.
Head to head: Round 8: Brisbane 9.12 (66) d Gold Coast 7.7 (49). Round 21: Gold Coast 20.10 (130) d Brisbane 9.10 (64).
Form: The Lions oscillated between strong and average performances for much of the season, but particularly in more recent times. They blitzed Collingwood and Fremantle since their horror display against the Suns, but also lost at home to Sydney and barely held off Hawthorn, while they could not match Geelong in their qualifying final.
Gold Coast remain unpredictable. They recovered from hugely disappointing losses to GWS and an under-strength Port Adelaide to pummel Essendon then upset Fremantle in an elimination final thriller in Perth.
Selection: Neale will go out of the Lions’ side, and his replacement is likely a decision between two players. Brisbane could select substitute Sam Marshall for a full game, or turn to the more experienced Deven Robertson. Another option might be to bring in James Tunstill, who is typically used on a wing in the senior side but can go through the middle. They don’t have many tall options in attack, so will probably stick with Ty Gallop.
The Suns might go in unchanged, but Will Graham and Sam Clohesy – if they are fit – Jake Rogers, Nick Holman and Oscar Adams are potential inclusions.
X-factor: Charlie Cameron is nearing the end of his stellar career, is nowhere near the threat he once was, and was awful against Geelong, but the Lions would love to hear Take Me Home, Country Roads on repeat on Saturday night.
Let’s go a bit different for Gold Coast: Alex Davies. Davies had 30 disposals, 10 tackles and six clearances in his first game of the season against Brisbane in round 21, and gets more centre-bounce attendances than Touk Miller these days.
Key stats: The midfield battle could be the difference. The Lions are No.1 for disposal and stoppage clearance differential this season, but the Suns beat them in both categories in their round 21 showdown.
Gold Coast are third for centre-clearance differential, second for inside-50 differential, and third for scoring-from-stoppages differential, so this will be a fascinating engine-room clash.
Early tip: Brisbane by 8.
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