In the uncertain early stages of his Indian Wells semi-final contest with Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev swiftly made his intentions clear. Having established a 3-1 lead, Medvedev chased down a trademark Alcaraz drop shot, then a lob, before slamming the door shut on the point by firing an ultra-flat inside-out backhand winner on to the edge of the line.
This was a statement point and it predicated the most startling performance of the year so far. Few gave Medvedev a serious chance against Alcaraz, who had won their four meetings, conceding just one set. It took one of the best matches of Medvedev’s distinguished career to turn the tables on Alcaraz in only two sets.
The defining question of men’s tennis this season remains whether any player can consistently put Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner under real pressure. Rather than a new emergent talent, a third man, the first steps have actually been made by the two veterans who preceded Alcaraz and Sinner at the No 1 ranking, with Novak Djokovic producing an incredible performance in the Australian Open semi-finals to topple Sinner in five sets.
Medvedev’s performances in California marked a significant moment in his career. He is the greatest men’s tennis player born in the 90s, a former No 1 and grand slam champion, but the 30-year-old is coming off his most painful season. Medvedev won just one grand slam match in the entirety of 2025, falling out of the top 15 for the first time since 2019. He finished with more rants and emotional crashouts than match wins.
For all the significant strides Medvedev took, though, the final result merely served as a reminder of just how incredibly difficult this task is. Beating both players will often be a requirement in order to win most big tournaments for the foreseeable future. A day later, Medvedev played another strong match and he pushed Sinner in two tight tie-break sets, but it was just a step too far. Sinner dominated in the decisive points, capturing the 25th title of his career.
Sinner is now the youngest man in history to win every major hard-court title at 24 years old. Perhaps an even greater measure of his brilliance, however, is the discourse that preceded it. Sinner failed to reach the final of his first two tournaments of the year, following up his tight five-set semi-final loss against Djokovic in Melbourne with a quarter-final defeat by Jakub Mensik at the Qatar Open. Those two losses were enough to invite a wave of discussion about whether Sinner was on the verge of a slump.
Such kneejerk reactions only serve to underline the astounding level and consistency Sinner has established over the past few years. Sinner has been second-best to Alcaraz in their personal rivalry, but he has otherwise been ruthless against the field, particularly on hard courts. He has set the bar so high that just one or two defeats are enough to raise eyebrows. No matter, Sinner closed out the Indian Wells title without dropping a set. There will be more to come.
Rather than Alcaraz and Sinner, the most important tennis rivalry of the first months of the 2026 season has been between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. The two destructive shotmakers more than matched their excellent Australian Open final with a spectacular contest in the California desert. This time, Sabalenka held her nerve in a desperate climax to win 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (6), saving a match point deep in the final-set tie-break. This was Sabalenka’s first tournament since the Australian Open, having backed up her criticisms of the congested WTA schedule by opting not to compete in either of the February WTA 1000 tournaments in Doha and Dubai. Her decision paid off in full.
The overall WTA top 10 is stronger than it has been for more than a decade. Nine of the top 10 players have won at least one grand slam title or WTA 1000 in the past 52 weeks and the one anomaly, Elina Svitolina, is playing some of the best tennis of her career. Rybakina’s incredible past six months, which have included titles at the WTA Finals and the Australian Open, have afforded her a new career-high ranking of No 2. Sabalenka’s consistent brilliance, however, remains the focal point of her sport this year.
Although his reign at Indian Wells came to an end, and under controversial circumstances after he was penalised for hindrance deep in the second set of his quarter-final defeat by Medvedev, Jack Draper departed the site of his first Masters 1000 title as one of the happiest players of all. The past seven months have marked the toughest challenge of the Briton’s career after a bone bruise to his left arm meant he has played only one match since Wimbledon in July.
Having been ranked No 4 at Wimbledon, positioning himself as one of the few younger players capable of pushing Alcaraz and Sinner, Draper has now fallen out of the top 25. After an excellent week from Cameron Norrie, who dismantled Alex de Minaur en route to the quarter-finals, Draper has also lost his British No 1 ranking to his old friend.
However, in just his second ATP tournament since returning, Draper offered up an unforgettable reminder of his talent and quality, triumphing in the men’s match of the season so far as he defeated Djokovic in a bruising, quality tussle at night. Draper’s talent and ability have never been in doubt. If he remains healthy enough to train and compete consistently, his ranking and results will follow. He is back again to give himself more opportunities to achieve those goals.
