Key events
Jessica Pegula wins the first set against Jasmine Paolini 6-2
Pegula looks really confident out there – she has all week, perhaps more so than I’ve ever seen her against the best players. She quickly makes 40-0 but then, offering a tame second serve, she allows Paolini to run around her forehand and smite a winner down the line. No matter: a forehand error follows, and that’s seals a dominant first set for the in-form American.
Sara Errani, Paolini’s doubles partner, is courtside, and I love watching those two compete – they have a right laugh, as well they might having won Olympic gold and this year’s French Open together. Paolini holds to 30, meaning at 5-2, Pegula will shortly serve for the first set.
It’s so interesting when older players suddenly get good – it’s happened over the last couple of years with Zhang Anda in snooker – and Paolini is another. One minute she’s a doubles specialist then, last year, she makes two grand slam finals, and has been knocking about at the top of the game ever since. What changed? I don’t think anyone knows. But back to the now, she makes 0-30, and though Pegula’s forehand – the definitive shot of the match, so far – makes her another winner, Paolini then makes 30-40. She can’t though, convert the break point, then overhits a backhand before netting a forehand, and that’s five games in a row for Pegula, who leads 5-1 in the first.
Again, Pegula wins the first point on Paolini’s serve, then makes 0-30; a buggy-whip forehand winner quickly halves the arrears and we wind up at 30-all. From there, though, Pegula’s forehand takes over, a winner followed by one which incites her opponent to go long. The American leads 4-1 with a double break, and this match is only going one way.
Paolini makes 0-15 but then overhits a forehand, and I wonder if Pegula’s greater consistency off the ground will be decisive here. A service winner gives her 40-15, she closes out, and at 3-1 endorses her break.
Does anyone toss the ball higher than Paolini? It’s funny as she’s got more time than most before it comes down, and less arm to get above it, but anyroad, she finds herself down 30-40 and, as we thought she might, hits down the middle; Pegula goes for the winner and hits wide. But on advantage, she clips the top of the net, and taking advantage of the additional time this allows as the ball sits up, Pegula punishes a winner down the line, then rushes through deuce by attacking Paolini’s forehand, securing the break and a 2-1 lead.
Pegula responds with an emphatic love hold, her forehand down the line in excellent order. She really fancies this, you can tell, and of the three contesting the two semi-final places, she’s the one you’d bet on to make it.
Paolini nets to go down 0-15 but soon makes 30-15, and a backhand swiped wide gives her game point. And though a decent return incites her to go wide, a decent first serve serve secures the hold. “It’s always good to get the first game under your belt,” revelates Tim Henman.
Ready … play.
Pegula wins the toss and opts to receive. She beat Coco Gauff earlier in the week and against Sabalenka, was up a break in the third; Paolini has twice been splattered in straights.
Paolini, of course, has been ill this week, but she looks happy enough on court.
My guess is that Paolini will try to keep Pegula moving, as she has the athletic advantage, while trying to hit winners; I wonder if Pegula will hit down the middle to deny angle, looking to prolong the rallies and incite the error.
Out come our players; Paolini’s mascot is about her height.
So how is our first match going to go? Well, Pegula is in terrific nick, giving Sabalenka all she could handle on Tuesday, while Paolini has looked knackered in being eliminated from both singles and doubles. So chances are Pegula, who is playing to qualify, does enough, but her lack of a definitive weapon means she’ll always be beatable when facing top players, and Paolini is definitely one of those.
Babos/Stefani win so, as far as I can fathom, they qualify for the last four along with Siniakova/Townsend.
We’ve a match tiebreaker going on in today’s first doubles match; the pairs are Dabrowski/Routliffe and Babos/Stefani.
Preamble
Greetings all and welcome to your afternoon fun and joy, also known as the final round of group matches in the 2025 WTA Tour Finals.
We begin with Jessica Pegula v Jasmine Paolini, plenty to be going on with, except following them on to court we’re blessed with Aryna Sabalenka v Coco Gauff – a treat in any circumstances, never mind these.
Paolini is out, having lost both her matches in a state of enthusiastic exhaustion, but the other three are fighting for two semi-final slots, Sabalenka sitting 2-0 and the others two 1-1. Depending on what happens today, these are the permutations, from least complex to most:
If Paolini and Gauff win, Gauff wins the group and Sabalenka takes second.
If Pegula and Sabalenka win, Sabalenka wins the group and Pegula takes second.
If Paolini and Sabalenka both win in two, Sabalenka wins the group and Gauff takes second; If Paolini and Sabalenka both win in three, Sabalenka wins the group and Pegula takes second; if Paolini wins in three and Sabalanka wins in two, Sabalenka wins the group and Gauff takes second; and if Paolini wins in two and Sabalanka wins in three, Sabalenka wins the group and Gauff takes second.
If Gauff and Pegula both win in two, Gauff wins the group and Pegula takes second; if Gauff and Pegula both win in three, Gauff wins the group and Sabalenka takes second; if Gauff wins in two and Pegula wins in three, Gauff wins the group and Sabalenka takes second; and if Gauff wins in three and Pegula wins in two, which players move on will be decided by the number of games won across the group.
Got it? No? Me neither, but all will soon be revealed and, in the meantime, it’s our pleasure to ignore outcome and focus on process: this is going to be good.
Play: 5pm local, 2pm GMT
