It surely hasn’t felt like it for most of us, but the 2026 FIFA World Cup has in fact had the shortest lead-in of any edition in living memory.
After FIFA delayed the 2022 tournament to a winter start date to make their controversial decision to grant Qatar hosting rights actually work, the four-year gap was cut by six months.
In this world where attention spans burn on the shortest fuse, the first men’s World Cup ever to come to Canadian soil has felt an awful long time coming. The countdown clock is really humming now, though. And by late Friday afternoon it will be close to a fully formed thing.
For a change, the eyes of the world will fixate on Washington, D.C. for a positive reason as the Kennedy Center hosts the draw to decide how this historically vast and expanded edition of the World Cup will look.
This being FIFA, things aren’t simple. There are moving parts aplenty. But fear not, we’re here to answer as many questions as we can (and as space allows). Let’s get into it …
What’s the 10-second, need-to-know breakdown?
Short attention span, eh? Here goes: The biggest ever World Cup, featuring 48 teams, will have its groups and progress paths decided during a star-studded draw ceremony which will provide us with the first 72 of the record 104 matchups — and a world of storylines to dig into.
48 teams? Holy moly, how will that work?
How will the groups be decided?
With all three host nations having qualified automatically, another 39 of the 45 remaining berths have been secured during global qualifying over the past two years. (The last six spots will be decided in March, but we’ll come back to that.) The qualified nations will be split into four pots of 12 based on FIFA’s current world rankings with the U.S., Canada and Mexico joining the nine highest-ranked nations in Pot 1, then descending order deciding Pots 2 and 3 with Pot 4 featuring the six lowest-ranked teams plus six remaining playoff winners. Teams from the same continental confederation cannot be drawn into the same group — except for UEFA, with a maximum of two European teams in the same group.
Pot 1: Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, United States (host), Mexico (host), Canada (host)
Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Australia
Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa
Pot 4: Jordan, Cape Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, UEFA playoff winners (four), Inter-confederation playoff winners (two)
In their wisdom, FIFA have allowed the penultimate six qualification spots to drag all the way to late March, when the last four teams from Europe (UEFA) and the final two from a global mini-tournament will punch their ticket.
So, there’s a chance Canada won’t know one of its group rivals until March?
Yip, there’s actually more than a chance. Because remember, FIFA avoids teams from the same confederation being grouped together, so both Haiti and Curaçao are off limits for Canada. Which leaves Jordan, Cape Verde, Ghana, New Zealand and six playoff teams. Math isn’t a strong point, but that does equate to a 60 per cent chance Canada draws one of the unknowns, something coach Jesse Marsch has been vocal he wants to avoid.
Apart from the planning, is there any downside to drawing one of them?
Well, yes. Potentially huge downsides. Among the contenders for those last four European berths are some very talented teams including — wait for it — Italy. The Azzurri may be at a low ebb, but they are four-time World Cup winners and currently rank No. 12. Should the Italians progress through their European playoff, facing them as a Pot 4 opponent rather than, say, world No. 86 New Zealand is a hell of a scenario.
That would be a short straw then?
Well, technically balls rather than straws. FIFA loves its big see-through punch bowls filled with garishly coloured plastic balls that some legendary former pro must pluck out, unscrew and dramatically unfold a piece of paper with a country’s name and flag on it. Keep an eye out for the special coloured balls for Canada, U.S.A. and Mexico.
OK, balls over straws. What about stadiums … does each group go to a specific city?
Not quite. FIFA has split the vast expanse of North America into three zones (Eastern, Central and Western) and will try to ease the travel strain on teams and fans during the group stage. For now, only the host nations know where they’ll play each of their three group games. Canada is in Group B and will start in Toronto before playing twice in Vancouver. The expanded BMO Field — which will be known as Toronto Stadium as far as sponsor-obsessed FIFA is concerned — will also host games from Groups E, I and L as well as a knockout game in the round of 32.
So, we’ll know which teams are playing in each city immediately after the draw?
Geez, any other finicky FIFA rules to know?
Plenty! A seven-page PDF with colour-coded flow charts has been provided. Knock yourself out.
We’ll bookmark it
Please do. The headline change is that the top four in the world rankings — Spain, Argentina, France and England — are essentially seeded into separate quarters of the draw.
Makes sense. Why do I keep hearing about a group of death?
Because we’re all a little bit morbid, right. Armchair fans and pundits alike love nothing more than forecasting the worst-case scenarios — either for their own teams or some of the biggest and best. What’s a nightmare scenario for Lionel Messi and defending champion Argentina? Well, being paired with Morocco, Norway and the possibility of Italy would count as daunting. Canada, by the way, could get the same scenario. In Pot 2, Croatia is also a danger. Erling Haaland and Norway roasted Italy as it steamrolled through qualification and is the Pot 3 team everyone wants to avoid.
Where are the soft landings?
In short, the debutants. Jordan, Curaçao, Uzbekistan and Cape Verde will all compete for the first time and would look to be up against it. But the enduring beauty of this thing is its propensity to leave us all stunned. Marsch knows most nations in Pots 2, 3 and 4 will see Canada as the weakest top seed, but he’s adamant they’ll dispel that theory.
How do teams progress?
The top two from each group make it to the round of 32, along with the eight best third-place teams. A win is still worth three points, one for a draw, nada for a defeat.
Anything else to look out for Friday?
Again, plenty. This being FIFA, they cannot allow us to totally enjoy the occasion. Infantino has made himself a frequent and fawning presence in the Oval Office in 2025 and reportedly moved the draw, which had been expected to take place in Las Vegas, to the U.S. capital at the behest of Donald Trump. The Kennedy Center ain’t the roomiest venue for what is already a bloated event, but its newest board chair happens to be the U.S. president.
Ugh …
There’s more. Infantino has announced he’ll also use the occasion to bestow a new trophy, the FIFA Peace Prize, on one particularly deserving recipient. We’ll give you an out-of-commission American penny to guess the winner’s identity.
Maybe better to focus on the soccer?
We’ll do our best. To their credit, TSN appears determined to help. Canada’s World Cup broadcaster is providing 10 hours of coverage on draw day. The draw, which begins at noon, will also be broadcast on FIFA.com and FIFA’s YouTube channel. For instant analysis, check out our World Cup draw live blog at thestar.com.
