You know what’ll be here before we know it? The World Cup. Yeah.
It’s a) barely nine months away and b) absolutely bloody massive. Some might suggest it is, if anything, Clive, almost too massive. As you no doubt know by now there are a frankly unwieldy 48 teams heading to USA, Canada and Mexico next summer and that means the various qualification processes across FIFA’s six continental confederations all look a bit different this year.
All apart from CONMEBOL, of course, who remain rightly and righteously wedded to their lovely 10-team league. It is, admittedly, an option not really open to any of the other confederations.
Anyway, what we’re driving at is that it’s already high time we take a look at how these various qualification tournaments are progressing – and some of them have five separate stages so it’s all going to take a bit of unravelling.
We already know 13 of the 48 and can start to have a decent go at guessing a good chunk of the remaining 35…
Teams who have qualified for the 2026 World Cup:
USA (hosts)
Mexico (hosts)
Canada (hosts)
Argentina (CONMEBOL)
Ecuador (CONMEBOL)
Brazil (CONMEBOL)
Japan (AFC)
Iran (AFC)
Uzbekistan (AFC)
South Korea (AFC)
Jordan (AFC)
Australia (AFC)
New Zealand (OFC)
2026 World Cup qualification: UEFA (Europe)
Total teams: 54
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 16
Already qualified: None
How it works:
Very early stages in European qualification, with plenty of teams only getting up and running this week in the four-team groups.
The 54 teams have been split into 12 qualifying groups, half with five teams and half with four. The four teams who made it to the last four of the Nations League are all in late-starting four-team groups so they could conclude that Nations League hooplah, while the five-team groups could have no more than one team involved in Nations League title/promotion/relegation palaver, who sat out the first round of games and only got involved in June.
Everyone else in the five-team groups kicked off in March.
The 12 group winners all qualify directly for the World Cup, with the 12 runners-up plus the four highest-ranking Nations League group winners who have finished outside the top two in their groups then setting off down four play-off routes to settle the four remaining places.
That does provide a potential safety net for both England and Wales, who are ranked fifth and seventh respectively among Nations League group winners after their triumphs in League B and would thus be almost certain to be handed a play-off spot even if they did finish outside the top two of their groups.
Even Northern Ireland down in 12th after a League C win could find easily themselves in the play-offs via that route if need be given the likelihood of most Nations League group winners above them finishing in the top two of their qualifying groups anyway.
One general thing to note is that UEFA are pound-for-pound the smallest ‘winner’ from the World Cup’s expansion having gained only three spots from 2022’s 13. Unlike everywhere else, it isn’t conspicuously easier to qualify now than it was before. UEFA is also the only confederation that won’t be represented at the inter-confederation play-offs.
Likely qualifiers:
Too early to rubberstamp anyone, but France, Spain and Portugal will all be heavy favourites to top what appear on paper weak four-team groups (and as the four Nations League A group winners are already guaranteed at least a play-off spot), while England have made a perfect if unconvincing start in their own none-too-threatening five-team pool as have Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway in theirs.
More interesting and fun with UEFA is generally trying to see which powerhouses might get themselves in a pickle and there’s a few trappy looking roads ahead for some World Cup stalwarts.
Germany are guaranteed at least a play-off spot via their Nations League finish and that looks significantly more relevant after they kicked off their campaign with a shock 2-0 defeat to Slovakia that leaves them bottom after one game of Group A, which is led by Northern Ireland at this early stage.
Belgium starting with a draw away to North Macedonia was sub-optimal, while Italy find themselves in some deep doo-doo after a 3-0 opening defeat to Norway that cost Luciano Spalletti his job.
Netherlands find themselves in a tricky three-way tussle with Poland and Finland in Group G but are still top with a game in hand and should be fine, while Croatia – finalists and semi-finalists at the last two World Cups – are favourites but no certainties to emerge on top ahead of Czechia in Group L.
READ: Who are the current favourites for the 2026 World Cup?
2026 World Cup qualification: CAF (Africa)
Total countries: 53
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 9 + 1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: None
How it works:
Jumping from five qualifiers for 2022 to nine (and a half) for 2026 has required a reworking of the African qualifying format.
There are (or at least were) nine groups of six, with each group winner going to the World Cup, and the four best runners-up heading for play-offs to secure a spot in the last-chance-saloon inter-confederation play-offs (about which more later) that take place next March.
That runner-up ranking bit has been rendered distinctly messy by the fact Group E now contains only four teams rather than six following Congo’s suspension and Eritrea’s withdrawal. It’s not yet clear how FIFA and/or CAF plan to mitigate the obvious impact this will have on the second-place finisher in that group and their hopes of making the play-offs.
Likely qualifiers:
With three or four games left for each team in (most) groups, nothing is locked in and several groups are still far too close to call. But there are some potential upsets around the place.
Ivory Coast are two points behind Gabon in Group F, albeit with a game in hand, while Senegal currently trail DR Congo in Group B, with Cameroon behind Cape Verde in Group D. They meet in a crucial game on Monday.
Nigeria are struggling even to make the play-off picture, down in fourth place in Group C.
Morocco are closest to securing qualification. They’re in that messy Group E, but rising above all the goings-on with a six-point lead over second-placed Tanzania.
Tunisia look pretty safe in Group H, where they lead Namibia – who do have a game in hand – by seven points.
Egypt are five points clear in Group A and should be fine, while South Africa are also five clear in Group C.
Algeria and Ghana would all expect to hold their current leads although neither is yet decisive.
2026 World Cup qualification: AFC (Asia)
Total countries: 46
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 8 + 1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: Japan, Iran, Uzbekistan, South Korea, Jordan, Australia
How it works:
It’s a long old process, with five stages – the first two of which also served as qualification for the 2027 AFC Asian Cup.
Luckily it all got underway right back in October 2023 and we’re now approaching the finish line of the crucial third stage, the one that decides six of the eight direct qualifiers.
The 18 teams that made it this far were split into six groups of three, with the top two from each group making it to the World Cup.
The teams finishing third and fourth in each group progressed to the fourth stage, where they have been split into two groups of three. It’s a single round-robin for this stage, with all matches taking place at centralised venues in the October international break.
Qatar will host Group A, also featuring UAE and Oman. Saudi Arabia will host Group B, which also contained Iraq and Indonesia.
The two winners of those groups will also qualify for the World Cup, and the two runners-up go to stage five: a two-legged continental play-off for a spot in the intercontinental play-off.
Look, not everyone is or can be as straightforward about these things as CONMEBOL.
Likely qualifiers:
We know the six direct World Cup qualifiers from the third round.
Iran and first-time qualifiers Uzbekistan are through in Group A.
South Korea and Jordan – another first-time qualifier – are through from Group B.
Japan dominated Group C and will be joined in North America next summer by Australia.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia really ought to make home advantage count and secure the two remaining direct entry spots.
2026 World Cup qualification: CONCACAF (North America, Central America and Caribbean)
Total countries: 32 (plus USA, Mexico and Canada)
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 6 + 2 inter-confederation play-offs
Already qualified: USA, Mexico and Canada
How it works:
Six direct qualification spots plus a double helping of play-off action sounds very exciting, but you do have to remember half of those six direct spots have already been claimed by the hosts.
Nevertheless, the removal of the two tradtional CONCACAF powerhouses in USA and Mexico in particular still offers all kinds of chances for all kinds of teams.
With the hosts accounted for and a couple of play-offs eliminating the lowest-ranked teams, the remaining 30 CONCACAF members were split into six groups of five for a single round-robin (i.e. two home games, two away) with the top two from each of those groups going to the final stage where the remaining 12 teams will be drawn into three groups of four.
Those groups will play out a full home-and-away round-robin with the three group winners off to the World Cup, and the best two runners-up heading to the intercontinental play-offs.
Likely qualifiers:
Too early to say with a whole group stage still to come but we have our line-up in Honduras, Bermuda, Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, Curacao, Haiti, Nicaragua, Panama, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Jamaica and Suriname.
2026 World Cup qualification: CONMEBOL (South America)
Total countries: 10
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 6 + 1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil
How it works:
South American qualifying has always possessed a pleasing straightforwardness, and the expansion of the finals has had no real impact on this beyond further diluting what little jeopardy exists for the stronger nations.
It’s still a clean and simple 10-team league, with everyone playing everyone else home and away. Just now with over half of those teams earning a direct path to the finals, and the team in seventh heading to the intercontinental play-offs where they should have a very good chance of success anyway.
Likely qualifiers:
We’re in the closing stages here, with every team now having played 16 of their 18 matches and a pretty clear picture emerging.
Holders Argentina are 10 points clear at the summit and already safely through to defend their title, with Ecuador and Brazil joining them, while Uruguay and Paraguay are pretty much nailed on too; if either misses out they are at least assured of South America’s spot in the inter-confederation play-off. Colombia will be hoping to avoid a final-day showdown with Venezuela for the final spot; a home win over Bolivia should seal it.
2026 World Cup qualification: OFC (Oceania)
Total countries: 11
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 1 + 1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: New Zealand
Already qualified for inter-confederation play-offs: New Caledonia
How it works:
The ins and outs don’t really matter now; it’s all finished. Suffice to say it ended with New Zealand – very much the dominant force in the post-Australia OFC – securing the confederation’s first ever direct-qualification World Cup spot with a 3-0 win over New Caledonia, who still have the chance to do a madness in the inter-confederation play-offs.
2026 World Cup qualification: Inter-confederation play-offs
Total countries: 6
Already qualified for play-offs: New Caledonia (OFC)
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 2
How it works:
New Caledonia will be joined by two teams from CONCACAF and one each from AFC, CAF and CONMEBOL as detailed above in a quickfire tournament to be played in one of the three host countries in March next year.
The four qualifiers ranked lowest by FIFA will meet in a pair of one-off semi-finals for the right to face the two highest-ranked teams in one-off finals that will decide the final two qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup.
