After two compelling rounds with high scores, standout displays and even the odd thriller, the group stage of the Women’s Rugby World Cup reaches its crescendo this weekend. On the face of it, there may not seem much still in play with seven of the eight quarter-finalists already decided: but that could not be further from the truth.
Pool A is the one group where one of the two qualifiers has not yet been determined, with the USA and Australia in a fascinating battle to join England in the quarter-finals that will play out on Saturday afternoon and evening – and may not be decided until the final kick.
For the Eagles, their task in York is simple enough: inflict a third straight defeat upon Samoa, secure a bonus point and rack up enough points to put serious pressure on the Wallaroos. One would expect the States to deliver two of the three requirements without much fuss given how Samoa have fared thus far, but they need a monumental 135-point swing to go their way, too.
That means that should the USA hold up their end of the bargain and move level with Australia on eight points, it will all then depend on the outcome of the day’s second Pool A game. A win for the Wallaroos against England at Brighton & Hove Albion Stadium would not only see them through, but top the group at the expense of the hosts.
A bonus point or another draw would also be enough for Australia. However, failing that they will need to keep a watchful eye on the scoreline and ensure they don’t concede enough points to be overtaken by the USA. Even if the result is decided in England’s favour long before full time, qualification may still be on the line right until the final moments.
The three other pools each conclude with shootouts for top spot, which could be particularly important in Pool B, as the battle to potentially avoid a quarter-final with England will be on the line when Canada and Scotland square off in Exeter. The Canadians have been superb thus far, and are heavy favourites.
However, Scotland have also shown up at this tournament, and will fancy their chances to cause what would be a major upset. “Something that we’ve highlighted is that teams that play Canada don’t tend to get that many opportunities to score,” captain Rachel Malcolm told the BBC this week.
“That clinical nature of the Wales performance was good [Scotland won 38-8],” she said, highlighting that her side need to take their chances against the Canadians. “It’s going to have to be better because we probably won’t get quite as many.”
The bottom half of the draw is just as compelling too, with France and New Zealand both out to solidify first-place finishes in their pools and ensure the third- and fourth- ranked sides avoid one another in the last eight.
Ireland caused a major upset when the two sides met last September, beating the Black Ferns 29-27 at the WXV1 tournament in Vancouver; however one of their best players, the current women’s Six Nations player of the year, Aoife Wafer has not been named in Sunday’s squad.
Head coach Scott Bemand said Wafer was “bursting to go” as she closes in on a return to action following knee surgery but has decided not to risk her for the pool decider amid six changes from the win over Spain.
Sam Monaghan will start in the second row after being withdrawn in the first half against Spain as a precaution, while fellow co-captain Edel McMahon returns to the side at flanker in place of Claire Boles.
Quick GuideWomen’s Rugby World Cup pool permutations
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England will win Pool A if they avoid defeat against Australia. Australia will win Pool A if they beat England and will come second if they get a bonus point or draw, or if the USA fail to beat Samoa with a bonus point, or if they finish with superior points difference (at kick-off Aus +73, USA -62). In the remote circumstance that the points difference was equal, then tries scored minus tries conceded; then total points; then total tries would break the tie. If these were all level, then Australia would advance because of a superior world ranking.
The victor of Canada v Scotland wins Pool B. In the event of a draw and both sides picking up the same number of try bonus points (zero or one), Canada come first because of their superior points difference.
The victor of New Zealand v Ireland wins Pool C. In the event of a draw and both sides picking up the same number of try bonus points (zero or one), New Zealand come first because of their superior points difference.
The victor of France v South Africa wins Pool D. In the event of a draw, South Africa come first unless they fail to pick up a try bonus point and France do so, in which case France come first because of their superior points difference.
New Zealand, the last side to beat England when they won 34-31 in the 2022 World Cup final, currently top Pool C ahead of Ireland on points difference.
Sunday’s winners at Brighton & Hove Albion Stadium will face the Pool D runners-up, which will be determined after France face South Africa in Northampton. South Africa caused an upset against Italy in the last pool match to secure a last-eight spot but it would be a seismic achievement to overcome the French.
