Key events
1 min Peep peep! Netherlands, dressed in brilliant orange, kick off from left to right as we watch. Japan are wearing their blue home strip; and whether you’re into the game or into fashion, the Japan Home Kit is a piece that shows ambition and pride with subtlety. With a wave-inspired white graphic on deep blue, this kit is a nod to national identity – made to inspire you to go beyond the horizon.”
“I followed Andrew Goudie’s link to Joachim Klement’s analysis and, even though it’s by an economist, it’s a cracking read,” begins Charles Antaki. “Sample:
Group D is the most evenly matched group of all … It will all depend on the form on the day who will succeed, but I think the Australians will summon their cricket spirit and win the group in the same way they win the Ashes – mostly due to the ineptitude of their opponents, and if that isn’t enough, then cheating.
“He’s also willing to predict that ‘Japan will win against Brazil’ .. though he does go on to claim that it’ll be ‘one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history’, which looks a bit charitable to Brazil at the moment.”
A reminder of the teams
Netherlands (4-3-3) Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders; Summerville, Malen, Gakpo.
Subs: Roefs, Flekken, Geertruida, Ake, Wieffer, Hato, De Roon, Kluivert, Til, Q Timber, Koopmeiners, Weghorst, Depay, Lang, Brobbey.
Japan (3-4-2-1) Z Suzuki; Watanabe, Taniguchi, H Ito; Doan, Sano, Kamada, Nakamura; Kubo, Maeda; Ueda.
Subs: Osako, Hayakawa, Sugawara, Itakura, Nagatomo, Seko, Tomiyasu, J Suzuki, Tanaka, K Ito, Y Suzuki, Machino, Goto, Ogawa, Shiogai.
Referee Ismail Elfath (USA)
“Ah, Mogwai,” purrs Matt Dony. “Magnificent. Been reminding myself of their genius recently. Ceiling Granny from 2021’s As The Love Continues is a better Smashing Pumpkins song than anything Billy Corgan has written in the last 20 years.
“Similarly, in Liverpool’s title season (feels a long time ago), Ryan Gravenberch was a better Claude Makelele than almost any other player has managed in the last 20 years. I hope he can bring that energy, disruptiveness and ball-playing to this tournament.
“I’m hoping the Netherlands go far. Mind you, Japan are always a likeable team, too. Argh, I don’t know! Let’s simply hope it’s entertaining!”
May nothing but happiness come through your door.
“‘An entire postcode of imaginary farms’ sounds like a chapter in Cruyff’s autobiography, tbh,” writes James Humphries. “One of the later ones just before he unretires, I guess.”
You need space to teach people Total Football, mate, and you need an imagination too.
“I was in the middle of writing a witty message on the mathematician who claimed the Dutch would win, only to see that somebody has beaten me to it,” writes Eva Maaten. “Oh well. But, I can share with you the reaction of my Dutch husband and half-Dutch daughter which one of slightly amused disbelief – not much confidence in this Dutch team.”
Let’s accentuate the positive: if this relatively unfancied Netherlands side win the World Cup, we’ll know for sure that Joachim Klement’s model is bulletproof. And I’ll own an entire postcode of imaginary farms.
A couple of DMs to look out for tonight
Spain, who are going to win the World Cup since you asked, get their campaign under way against Cape Verde tomorrow. Sid Lowe’s preview is as readable as ever.
“After seeing that Curacao are as good as the 2014 Brazil side, I am now all set for this mouthwatering contest,” writes Krishnamoorthy V. “Will this be the first goalless draw of the tournament? Or an engaging 2-2 draw? I will settle for anything if someone can recreate the Bergkamp magic just one more time.”
Fun fact: in a world of VAR, Bergkamp would have been suspended for the France 98 quarter-final against Argentina.
“German economist Joachim Klement’s mathematical model has predicted the winner of every World Cup since 2014, and this time he’s predicting the Netherlands to beat Portugal in the final,” writes Andrew Goudie. “I’m all for a bit of maths, but in this case I think I’d prefer my predictions done by an octopus.”
That slimy fraud has been winging it for years. And as for Paul the Octopus, etc.
(But seriously, three winners in a row is pretty persuasive. If I had a farm, I’d be tempted to put in on the Netherlands.)
Full time: Germany 7-1 Curaçao
For David Narey v Brazil in 1982, read Livano Comencia v Germany in 2026. Don’t poke the thing!
The New York Knicks’ NBA glory has absolutely nothing to do with the World Cup – but only if you take these things literally. In Manhattan right now, it’s an essential part of the 2026 World Cup story.
On Haiti v Scotland
William MacGregor, 41, from Dumbarton, described the post-goal atmosphere as “bouncing … Drinks were flying everywhere when the goal went in. Not mine, I kept mine.”
“Thoroughly looking forwards to this,” says James Humphries. “Japan are great fun every time I watch them and my understanding is that the Dutch aren’t defensively at their best, so could be the game of the tournament so far.
”I hope it’s exciting, anyway, because, I didn’t get to my pit till about half five last night (along with about half the population of Glasgow, given the number of cheery wasters I passed on the way) and then had to get up at ten to go take my daughter swimming; if I was about ten years older, medics would probably describe my current mental state as “a bit confused”, in the sort of tones used to tell family members news that could be worse but still nonetheless isn’t great.
“So, um, what… what was I talking about, again?”
Cheery wasters? Japan? Something like that.
Matthew Engel
The connection between King Lear and the 1966 World Cup is little known, mainly because it affected very few people at a now defunct boarding school. I had been a surprise selection to act in the school’s production of Lear (yes, I played the Fool; yes, I was typecast). The day before one of the performances I fell and twisted something and was a doubtful starter for a part that required a lot of dashing about.
Matron prescribed sleeping pills. That night England were playing Mexico in that now-sanctified tournament – almost a must-win after a goalless start against Uruguay. I went to bed early, tucked my transistor under the pillow to hear the commentary, went spark out and only heard the result next morning: England 2 Mexico 0. The rest is national history.
Team news
Ronald Koeman sticks with the same XI that beat Uzbekistan 2-1 in the Netherlands’ final pre-tournament friendly. Memphis Depay, who is fit again, starts on the bench. Crysencio Summerville, who only made his international debut last week, begins on the right wing.
Nine of the Japan XI started their victory at Wembley in March. The exceptions are Takefusa Kubo and Celtic’s Daizen Maeda, who come in for Junya Ito and the sadly injured Kaoru Mitoma. The World Cup is a whole lot poorer for his absence.
Netherlands (4-3-3) Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders; Summerville, Malen, Gakpo.
Subs: Roefs, Flekken, Geertruida, Ake, Wieffer, Hato, De Roon, Kluivert, Til, Q Timber, Koopmeiners, Weghorst, Depay, Lang, Brobbey.
Japan (3-4-2-1) Z Suzuki; Watanabe, Taniguchi, H Ito; Doan, Sano, Kamada, Nakamura; Kubo, Maeda; Ueda.
Subs: Osako, Hayakawa, Sugawara, Itakura, Nagatomo, Seko, Tomiyasu, J Suzuki, Tanaka, K Ito, Y Suzuki, Machino, Goto, Ogawa, Shiogai.
Referee Ismail Elfath (USA)
Jonathan Wilson
In 2002 there was a sense that Japan had slightly missed an opportunity. South Korea may have enjoyed the benefit of some favourable refereeing, but they also impressed. They were quick, technically good and tactically extremely flexible and they progressed to the semi-final of their home World Cup.
Japan did not do much wrong, topping their group before going down 1-0 to Turkey in the last 16, but the contrast with their co-hosts was inevitably underwhelming.
Although Park Ji-sung and Lee Young-pyo earned moves to PSV off the back of South Korea’s performances, and subsequently joined Manchester United and Tottenham respectively, Japan already had four players with European clubs, although one of them, Junichi Inamoto, had briefly returned to Gamba Osaka from his loan at Arsenal before leaving for Fulham. He never played a league game for Arsène Wenger, his next permanent move taking him to West Brom, where he struggled to make an impact.
The poor Japanese journalist whose job it was to cover him became a great figure of sympathy. The final question of each of Bryan Robson’s pre-match press conferences would always be him asking politely about Inamoto’s progress in training – at least until the moment, after almost two years, when he finally snapped and demanded, with despairing incredulity: “Mr Robson, why do you pick Darren Carter?”
Germany are cruising to victory over Curacao in today’s first game. But whatever the score, the match will be remembered for the greatest moment of Livano Comenencia’s career.
GOOOOOAAAAAALLLL! Germany 1-1 Curacao (Comenencia 21)
Do not adjust your screen! This is actually happening! And you know what? It’s almost been coming! Again, Curacao attack, slipping a pass into the box, and when the ball breaks to Locadia, he shoots, the effort blocked, but Comenencia arrives on to it, his shot flicks off a Kimmich, the deflection taking it over Neuer’s hands, and CURACAO HAVE LEVELLED IT AGAINST GERMANY! THIS IS WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT, AND IMAGINE THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN RIGHT ABOUT NOW!
Team guide: Japan
By Takashi Ogami
Japan are no longer at a stage where speaking openly about “winning the World Cup” invites ridicule. Their historic victories over Germany and Spain in 2022 proved that they are capable of producing much more than just a one-off upset. Over nearly eight years in charge the head coach, Hajime Moriyasu, has built a side capable not merely of surviving against the world’s elite, but of defeating them too. This was backed up by wins against Brazil in October and England – at Wembley – in March.
The expected system is a 3-4-2-1, though Japan also experimented with a 3-1-4-2 against England, suggesting tactical flexibility depending on the oppostion. Pressing aggressively from the top is important, with players such as Takefusa Kubo, Ritsu Doan, Keito Nakamura and Junya Ito all excellent at putting pressure on opponents.
Hopes are high back home, though, and the former Japan coach Akira Nishino, who led the side at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, says of the current squad: “It’s not about individuals acting like egoists. This group of players fight together and within that unity, individuality emerges. There is a strength in these ‘Japanised’ individuals.”
This team genuinely believe they can win the World Cup.
Team guide: Netherlands
By Marcel van der Kraan
Has Ronald Koeman ever started a major tournament with more headaches? Probably not. He is known as an exceptionally ambitious perfectionist, which means the preparation for this World Cup has been the most troublesome of all his years as the national-team head coach.
Injuries are part and parcel of the game but it becomes a real problem when, in the run-up to a major tournament, around half the starting XI is either ruled out completely or sidelined for months. In the spring Koeman said he would only take players who were fully fit and playing regularly, but that stance became difficult to maintain.
Tottenham’s Xavi Simons suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury in April and won’t be back until next year. The PSV midfielder Jerdy Schouten is also recovering from the same injury. Matthijs de Ligt, who has often partnered Virgil van Dijk in central defence, has not regained full fitness after a back problem.
Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong missed most of the season, Inter’s Denzel Dumfries was out for four months. Manchester City’s Tijjani Reijnders and Nathan Aké were often on the bench while Memphis Depay sustained a serious hamstring injury at the end of his season in Brazil.
Preamble
Hello, how do you do and welcome to live, minute-by-minute coverage of Netherlands v Japan in Texas. This is one of the most enticing games of the group stage, a cruiserweight contest between two teams who are desperate to break new ground at the World Cup.
The Netherlands are probably the best team never to win the World Cup and definitely the only team to lose three finals without winning one. Japan are surely the best team never to reach the quarter-finals.
They look in good shape to right that particular wrong. Since completing their qualification campaign a year ago, Japan won have nine of their 12 games, including first ever victories over Brazil and England. Now they’re hunting a first win over the Netherlands.
If Japan are the hipster’s choice at this World Cup, then the Netherlands continue to go under the radar. The squad doesn’t have the same stardust as more famous Dutch teams, but their recent record is strong. They lost to the eventual winners Argentina in the quarter-final of the last World Cup and went toe-to-toe with England before losing a dramatic Euro 2024 semi-final.
This is a tricky group, which also includes Sweden and Tunisia, so a draw tonight would be a decent result for Netherlands and Japan. Let’s hope they’re not thinking that way.
Kick off 3pm local/4pm EDT/9pm BST.
