Key events
Feel free to keep me company throughout the match by emailing your thoughts about today’s match, and anything related to the World Cup to jonathan.howcroft.freelance@theguardian.com.
Preamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of match 60 of the 2026 World Cup between Paraguay and Australia. Kick-off at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium is 7pm local time (10pm EDT / 3am BST / 12pm AEST).
It all comes down to this in Group D.
The USA are through as group winners. Turkey are on their way home in last place. In between, Australia and Paraguay are jostling for second place, and the prize of guaranteed qualification to the knockout phase, or third place, and an anxious wait to see how the chips fall elsewhere.
An Australia win guarantees the Socceroos a round of 32 clash in Dallas, most likely against Egypt or Iran (but possibly Belgium or New Zealand). It also pushes Paraguay close to elimination with their poor goal difference and disciplinary record counting heavily against them in the battle to be ranked one of the eight best third-place teams.
A Paraguay win guarantees them that trip to Texas, but as long as Australia don’t lose by more than one goal, they should also be confident of continued participation, only without immediate confirmation.
A draw suits both sides with Australia qualifying in second, Paraguay third.
The incentives for both teams to secure only a draw suggest this evening’s spectacle may not be one for fans of open attacking football. Neither coach will publicly admit it, of course (and there will be no hint of collusion) but it’s human nature to pursue loss aversion.
When the draw was made both these teams would have expected to be in a scrap for third place at best, each will be delighted with their position at kick-off and it would be an enormous surprise if either put that status in jeopardy by playing anything other than conservatively.
I’ll be back shortly with team news and a roundup of all the matchday action so far. In the meantime you can keep an eye on the conclusion of Group F, with the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden, jostling for to spot.
