For the first time in 12 years, all four top seeds have reached the semifinals of the Australian Open. And each has a record or milestone at stake, with just two more wins standing in their way. World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz is aiming to become the youngest man in the Open Era to complete a career Grand Slam. Defending champion and World No. 2 Jannik Sinner stands on the brink of becoming only the second man in the Open Era to complete a three-peat in Melbourne. World No. 3 Alexander Zverev is chasing his maiden Grand Slam title, while Novak Djokovic remains in pursuit of an unprecedented 25th major, a mark that has eluded him over the past 24 months.
With Rod Laver Arena set to host the two men’s singles semifinals on Friday, we take a closer look at each of the contenders and make their case in the match-ups.
Alcaraz vs Zverev
Alcaraz and Zverev have taken contrasting paths to the semifinal. The German, a former finalist in Melbourne, has been tested repeatedly at the 2026 Australian Open, dropping a set in four of his five matches. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has been on a rampage, storming into the semifinal of the ‘Happy Slam’ for the first time in his still-young career without dropping a single set.
There were two major questions surrounding Alcaraz heading into Melbourne this summer. The first was whether he could sustain the level of tennis he produced over the past 18 months, a period in which he won two Grand Slam titles and reclaimed the world No. 1 ranking, especially after his split from long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. The Spaniard has answered those doubts emphatically, with his dominant form on full display over the past fortnight. That was particularly evident in his quarter-final clash against Alex de Minaur, where Alcaraz tamed the ‘Demon’ with heavy ball-striking and disciplined aggression, weapons he will once again rely on when he takes the Rod Laver Arena on Friday to face Zverev.
The other area of scrutiny was his serve, which he remodelled by borrowing elements from Novak Djokovic’s action, prioritising precision over outright power. Alcaraz has landed 66 per cent of his first serves over the past 11 days in Melbourne, two percentage points higher than last year, while also improving his second-serve success rate from 56 to 60 per cent.
However, those numbers appear less daunting when set against the third seed, whose run to the semifinal has been built largely around his imposing serve. Zverev has fired 80 aces in the tournament, committed just six double faults, held serve 92 per cent of the time, and won 77 per cent of points behind his first delivery.
For the German to replicate his 2023 win over the world No. 1, when he beat Alcaraz in the quarter-finals, he will need to lean heavily on first-strike tennis and keep points short. Should rallies extend, Alcaraz is likely to gain the upper hand, making it increasingly difficult for Zverev to trade from the baseline.
From Alcaraz’s perspective, targeting Zverev’s forehand will be key, an area he largely avoided two years ago, despite it misfiring at times. In that four-set defeat, where Alcaraz won just one set via a third-set tie-break, he persistently attacked the backhand instead.
Verdict: Alcaraz to win.
Sinner vs Djokovic
No one on the tour knows how to win high-stakes matches quite like Djokovic. And no one in history has mastered Melbourne better than the Serb. A 10-time Australian Open champion, Djokovic owns over 100 match wins at the tournament and boasts a staggering 20–2 record in semifinals and finals.
Yet when the 38-year-old takes to Rod Laver Arena on Friday night in front of a packed crowd, he will do so as the underdog, a rarity for a player of his stature.
The advent of the New Order, led by Alcaraz and Sinner, has pushed Djokovic to the margins of the title conversation. That perception has only grown after the two young stars shared all eight Grand Slam titles over the past two years, with Djokovic last lifting a major trophy at the 2023 US Open.
Sinner, in particular, has dominated Djokovic in recent meetings, winning their last five encounters. That run includes a semifinal victory in Melbourne in 2024 and straight-sets wins at the same stage at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
Come Friday, Sinner, the two-time defending champion at the Australian Open, will enter as the overwhelming favourite. Apart from battling heat and cramps in his third-round match, the Italian has looked close to flawless. His improved serve and the added unpredictability in his game, areas he consciously worked on after losing to Alcaraz in last year’s US Open final, have further strengthened his case.
For Djokovic to stand a chance against Sinner’s supreme all-round game, he will need to inject an element of surprise — mixing in serve-and-volley tactics and embracing controlled chaos in his strategy.
