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Collingwood are preparing to try to prove doomsayers wrong who predict their ageing list will soon drop off a cliff, with an aggressive off-season designed to make another flag push with this group.
The Magpies receive regular criticism about their lack of top-line youth, in large part owing to them picking higher than 17th just once in the past seven drafts – when they matched Gold Coast’s bid on Nick Daicos at No.4 in 2021.
Recruiting manager Shane O’Bree unearthed a promising player in his first draft last year in Sam Swadling, who is averaging 15 disposals and has kicked a goal in five of his six AFL games since being the No.37 selection last year. Their winning team against West Coast was their least-experienced side since Ed Allan – who received a contract offer last week – made his debut in round 11, 2024.
However, Jordan De Goey, Brayden Maynard, Jamie Elliott, Scott Pendlebury, Dan McStay, Darcy Cameron, Billy Frampton, Steele Sidebottom, Jack Crisp, Tim Membrey, Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe will all be 30 or older by year’s end. Sidebottom is likely to retire but the future of other out-of-contract players remains uncertain.
Craig McRae’s men have won seven of their past eight games to climb into eighth spot and assure themselves of at least qualifying for the inaugural wildcard round. But they clearly aren’t satisfied with just that.
After officially parting ways with Bobby Hill last month, Collingwood are willing to give in-demand restricted free agent Zak Butters an extraordinary long-term offer reportedly worth about $1.8 million annually. Richmond, Western Bulldogs and Geelong are also keen on the Port Adelaide superstar.
The industry expectation is that the Power will match any Butters offer sheet and force the winning suitor to broker a trade, which would scupper the Pies’ wish to retain their first-round pick this year if the superstar chose to join the Magpies (many still think he is at long odds to do that).
There is fascination across the competition about whether the clubs that miss out on Butters will bank the money budgeted for him and front-end contracts of existing players, or pivot to another big-name option. It is a similar story with Adelaide, who are trying to lure premiership star Zac Bailey out of Brisbane.
Collingwood also have dual Brownlow medallist and free agent Lachie Neale in their sights, two years after they used that player movement mechanism to recruit ex-Giant Harry Perryman.
Veteran GWS forwards Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer, as well as out-of-favour Hawk Calsher Dear (who has a two-year offer from Hawthorn on the table), are on the Magpies’ radar, too, but it is unclear if they would be looking to recruit only one or more of them.
The Giants seem headed for a reset of sorts, with captain Toby Greene potentially bound for Geelong at season’s end, so Hogan should come cheaply at the trade table, while Stringer is a free agent. Max Gruzewski has extended his time at the Giants for two years.
One experienced industry source told this masthead he was sceptical that Collingwood could lure all three of Butters, Neale and Hogan.
Pies list boss Justin Leppitsch was spotted keeping a close eye on Dear at this month’s VFL match between Box Hill and North Melbourne.
Geelong have made it clear they want to find a long-term partner in attack for Shannon Neale in the post-Jeremy Cameron era, and they join Melbourne, Collingwood, St Kilda and Carlton among the parties interested in Dear.
This masthead has spoken to a range of sources – from clubland to player agents – who were granted anonymity to openly discuss the player-movement market.
A Humphrey trade is unlikely
Contracted Sun Bailey Humphrey seems almost certain to remain at the Gold Coast next year despite multiple suitors – including Melbourne, Carlton and Hawthorn – tracking his progress throughout the season.
Humphrey, who is contracted until the end of 2028, caused a stir when a photo surfaced of him meeting with new Demons coach Steven King and assistant Nathan Jones in October last year.
Melbourne are in the process of trying to re-sign unrestricted free agent Tom Sparrow and are keen on agile Hawthorn’s Dear, but would prioritise talented forward-midfielder Humphrey if circumstances changed on his availability.
The Suns refused to consider trading him last year, and Humphrey has not made a trade request this year.
The Hawks are readying to bring in Gold Coast’s restricted free agent spearhead Ben King – with the Suns highly likely to accept a compensation pick rather than force a trade – and still want to trade for former Essendon captain Zach Merrett.
The Blues acquired Ben Ainsworth from Gold Coast last year, plus ex-Swans Will Hayward and Ollie Florent, but are likely to remain aggressive with Chris Davies and Graham Wright overseeing list management.
Decision time looms
Carlton’s must-win clash against the Western Bulldogs on Sunday will be something of an audition for Bulldogs defender Buku Khamis as he weighs up his future at the club.
The Bulldogs upped their offer to the free agent to four years to match, in tenure, the offer from Carlton as they attempt to retain the popular Khamis.
The 26-year-old will spend the next fortnight, at least, deciding his future after examining offers from both clubs, with the Bulldogs increasingly hopeful he will remain at “the Kennel”.
Khamis wanted to join the Blues at the end of last season as he felt starved of opportunity, but this season has proven the key role he can play at the Dogs.
He has played every match, but is aware he is best suited as a third tall defender who intercepts in the air rather, than as a key defender expected to lock down opponents.
Cody Walker watch
The one downside to Carlton’s on-field resurgence under interim coach Josh Fraser is that the equation to match a draft bid on prized father-son midfielder Cody Walker becomes that much harder.
The Blues boast a 10-2 win-loss record since Fraser replaced Michael Voss in the coach’s box in May, and they now sit in 10th place.
That not only means Carlton are inside the cut-off for the inaugural wildcard round, but they also no longer receive a draft discount on a Walker bid under the new league rules.
The Blues would score a 10 per cent discount on the teenage star if they finish between 11th and 18th, which is still a possibility with two rounds to go. Top-four teams must pay a loading of 10 or 20 per cent on their father-son and academy-eligible prospects when a bid is placed between picks No.1 and 18.
Walker is widely tipped to attract a bid at pick No.2 in this year’s draft, and Carlton can use only two picks to match – another new rule.
The Blues currently have the No.9 selection based off their ladder position, but that will slide back one if Ben King exercises his free agency rights to leave Gold Coast, and the Suns don’t match. They also have Sydney’s first-round selection from last year’s Charlie Curnow deal.
That Swans pick would slide from No.17 to No.18 in the aforementioned King scenario, so Carlton’s combined draft value index points would be 2112. The No.2 pick is worth 2481 points.
The Blues can go into deficit in a future draft by a maximum of 412 points (this would result in them picking later in 2027), meaning a glorious September run could come at great cost.
Meanwhile, Carlton forward Mitch McGovern has signed a one-year deal to stay at the club next season while impressive youngsters Talor Byrne and Jack Ison have extended their deals until the end of 2028.
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