Manchester City were the Carabao Cup semi-final opponents Newcastle United fans least wanted, and they can consider their title defence over after losing the first leg at St James’ Park.
Newcastle would have hoped for St James’ Park to host the second leg of this season’s semi-final, just as it did against Arsenal in 2024/25. It is always better to play the second leg at home. Go to the Etihad, frustrate City, try to take home a decent result. When it’s City, a decent result is capped at a two-goal defeat. The Magpies would still be in this tie if it had been a 2-0 first-leg defeat away from home.
But that is not what happened. Newcastle must play the cards they were dealt, and they were dealt a poor hand: the worst possible opponents and a home tie first.
It felt like a must-win game on Tuesday night. Some in black and white might argue that a draw would have been fine, but their record away to Manchester City is nothing short of abysmal. Their last goal at the Etihad came in 2018/19, with DeAndre Yedlin scoring in a 2-1 defeat. Their only win there came in the League Cup in 2014/15, which was also the only time Newcastle have scored more than one goal at the stadium.
Since then, they have lost seven consecutive matches there without scoring. In 22 visits, they have lost 5-0 three times, 4-0 three times and 6-1 once.
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You can argue that a 6-1 defeat in 2015/16 is not relevant, but it all falls under the same umbrella: Newcastle become completely useless at the Etihad.
The most recent meeting is the most relevant, and it was damning. This was the weakest City side since Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge and Newcastle rolled over, losing 4-0. They cannot afford to be passengers in the second leg on February 4. They have no choice but to go for it.
It was always going to be difficult. It’s easy to say Newcastle had to win; executing that is another matter entirely. But this is a City side Eddie Howe’s team have beaten this season, and they have not beaten many top sides. It was a tough task, but not an impossible one.
Despite hitting the woodwork twice and enjoying a couple of promising spells, it was nowhere near good enough. It is now very hard to see Newcastle reaching the final. In fact, you’re deluded if you think they have any chance.
What made matters worse is that the decisive factor was new City signing Antoine Semenyo, who scored the crucial opener and had another ruled out for a ‘subjective offside’. Rayan Cherki and Rayan Ait-Nouri combined to ensure the visitors left the north east with a two-goal advantage.
That hurts, because Newcastle should have signed Semenyo in the summer. It hurts because they signed Anthony Elanga for £55million instead. And it hurts because that £55m right winger has zero goals and one assist in 25 games this season.
They missed out massively. Many clubs failed to realise just how good Semenyo was and after an electric first half of the campaign, City pounced. He is already proving to be a difference-maker, delivering a crucial goal on Tuesday, and his signing could yet help Guardiola win a seventh Premier League title.
Howe complained that Semenyo was allowed to play despite featuring in the competition for Bournemouth, saying sarcastically in his pre-match press conference: “Yeah, it was nice to find out that rule had changed after finding out they’d signed him. I have to say, that’s probably one rule change I wouldn’t be supportive of at this current moment. But Antoine’s had an incredible season. I’m a big admirer of his and he scored on his debut, so fair play to him. I think Man City have signed a very, very good player.”
He will wish it was Newcastle who signed that “very, very good player”. Instead, they signed Elanga, who has not scored in over 1,000 minutes for his new club, while Semenyo needed just 54 to score for his.
Semenyo was ultimately the difference, but even a 0-0 draw would have left Newcastle facing a mountain to climb. City can already consider themselves Carabao Cup finalists, and Newcastle can blame their ill-advised £55m investment.
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