What the Patriots need to do to win
Pressure Sam Darnold. Darnold was outstanding in the NFC championship game when forced to throw under duress. But that hasn’t been the case all season. The Seahawks rank sixth in EPA/dropback when there is no pressure, but drop to 22nd when there is pressure. Collapsing the pocket is New England’s best shot at success. Their interior pass-rushers, Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, will need to overwhelm Darnold. OC
Keep Jaxon Smith-Njigba in check. New England’s defense has been exceptional this postseason, and they will have their hands full with Seattle running back Kenneth Walker, who is red hot. But Smith-Njigba is a different animal. He can take over a game with chunk passes, deep passes, all passes. If the Patriots allow him to get into a rhythm, it could be a blowout. MJ
Get to Darnold early and often. The Seahawks signal caller has regressed when the walls close in, throwing the bulk of his 14 regular-season picks while under duress. A few well-timed blitz calls from the Patriots could make this new, improved version of Darnold look more like the quarterback we saw when he was with the Jets. AL
The Pats need to unleash the ghosts on Darnold and transform the Seahawks QB into the Sam of Jets past. How? By using those ghosts to disguise coverages and confuse him, throwing a wrench into the progressions he can still struggle with. The 49ers and Rams couldn’t do it, one reason why Darnold hasn’t been picked off in these playoffs, and a big reason why Seattle are back in the Super Bowl. DL
Stop Walker. Seattle’s running back has had an impressive season despite sharing carries with Zach Charbonnet but the Patriots have been even better at stopping the run. They have allowed only 214 yards on the ground in three playoff games combined. New England need to play to their strengths and force the Seahawks to rely on Darnold’s arm. GS
What the Seahawks need to do to win
Limit explosive plays. The Seahawks give up few chunk plays. They force opponents into short completions and then rally and tackle better than anyone in the league. They will need to sustain that against New England, who led the league in explosive play rate this season. The Patriots will struggle to sustain drives against such a well-rounded defense. If the Seahawks can limit them to only one or two splash plays, they will walk away with the trophy. OC
Darnold needs to replicate his NFC championship game performance. When spotlighting Seattle, you start with their defense and for good reason. But without Darnold’s masterful performance under pressure against the Rams, we’re looking at a different NFC champion. If Darnold lets the Patriots’ defense turn him into a pumpkin, no one will care about his performance against the Rams. MJ
Stick with the offensive gameplan that brought them to the dance. Darnold’s quick and accurate passing and Walker’s grit on the ground help make the Seahawks one of the league’s most disorienting play-action offenses. If Walker can keep the chains moving, and Darnold can maintain his connections with Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp (who has form on this stage), Sunday could turn into an easy revenge game for the Hawks. AL
A lot, because it doesn’t look good for them. Maybe focus on Drake Maye’s fumbles: there were four of them against Houston, but he only lost two. Seattle will also have to nail down Maye when he’s on the move, something they didn’t have to worry about with grandpa quarterbacking the Rams in the NFC championship. They also should try to take away his backfield security blanket, running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who is more than capable of catching a ball out of the backfield and turning a messy sequence into a healthy gain. DL
Keep Maye’s running locked down. The quarterback showed the damage he can do on the ground in Denver, so a defender must be positioned to keep watch over him trying to escape up field. The boost for the Seahawks is their pass rush is so strong it can run light and afford the defense an extra man in the secondary to spy him. GS
Key player for the Patriots
Milton Williams, DL. Williams was one of the stars of last season’s Super Bowl for the Eagles. Now in New England, he’s proved he can be a consistent one-on-one force, both as a run defender and pass rusher. The Seahawks’ weak links on offense are along the interior of their offensive line, particularly right guard Anthony Bradford and center Jalen Sundell. The Patriots will hunt matchups for Williams in the hope he can deliver a drive-killing play or two. OC
Drake Maye, QB. In three games this postseason, Maye has thrown for only 533 yards with a measly 55.8% completion rate. He’s been sacked 15 times and thrown two interceptions. Still, he’s also the first quarterback to win three playoff games against top-five defenses. But will Super Bowl nerves overwhelm him when he faces (arguably) the best defense of them all? MJ
Kayshon Boutte, WR. He nearly equaled his yardage total from last year with a third fewer targets – numbers that speak to his emergence as a downfield threat for the Patriots. These playoffs have quickly become a showcase for Boutte’s incredible body control, sweet feet and sticky hands. AL
Christian Gonzalez, CB. He emerged this season to become a secondary genius, and now he’ll be faced with a stern test: limiting Smith-Njigba. If Gonzalez can somehow cancel the receiver out, the job simplifies for the rest of the Pats defense. Watching this game within the game will make for fascinating viewing. DL
Mike Onwenu, RG. The capstone of a completely retooled line that jumped from one of the NFL’s worst to a top-five crew. Onwenu’s experience and consistency has been the bedrock of the team’s explosive passing attack. He missed only 13 of 1,286 snaps all season while playing every single one at right guard for only the second time in his six-year career. GS
Key player for the Seahawks
Kenneth Walker, RB. The Seahawks’ run game came alive in the second half of the season. They do most of their damage out of heavier personnel groupings, planting big bodies on the field to clear paths for running backs. That’s also where the Pats run defense is at its best, matching big-on-big in the trenches. But Walker can turn any glimpse of daylight into a huge run. He’s a homerun hitter with serious juice. New England will be content to let the Seahawks churn out yards on the ground, but it’s Walker who could turn those small openings into massive gains. OC
Byron Murphy II, DT. The second-year player has been a disruptive beast all season. Murphy’s seven sacks were second among defensive tackles in the regular season, and he’s the anchor of a run-defense that hasn’t allowed an opposing back to top 55 yards in Seattle’s two postseason games. MJ
Rashid Shaheed, WR/return specialist. GM John Schneider loves himself a Percy Harvin type – and he has that and more in Shaheed, as much a threat to flip the field in the return game as he is in the Seahawks’ deep-ball packages. The Patriots already have their hands full trying to stop Smith-Njigba and Kupp; that offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak also has Shaheed to throw out there feels unfair to Pats rookie slot corner Kobee Minor, who better be ready to make like Hawks great Marcus Trufant and jam. AL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR. Seattle are already down half of their running back attack after Charbonnet’s season-ending injury broke up his tag team with Walker. Smith-Njigba had 153 yards receiving against the Rams so Seattle’s underwhelming run game didn’t matter much in that track meet. Things will tighten up considerably against New England, so Smith-Njigba’s output will be consequential. DL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR. Seattle’s confidence in their star wideout was clear before the season began. They traded DK Metcalf away and brought in a quarterback the receiver’s talent would boost rather than the other way around. If New England have an off-day in the backfield they will lose heavily chasing the heels of Smith-Njigba. GS
The coaching edge goes to …
The Patriots – just. The Seahawks are a more talented team – and their coaching acumen jumps off the screen. But the Patriots are only here because of the quality of their coaching. Between the two offensive coordinators, the edge goes to Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has won six Super Bowl titles as a coach. He won’t be intimidated by the stage, and always has a couple of special plays stored up for big occasions. OC
The Patriots, especially McDaniels, thanks to his extensive experience. Sunday will mark the 10th Super Bowl McDaniels had coached in. He’s seen every defensive formation, every attempt at trickery, and, most importantly, understands the vastly different cadence and routine of a Super Bowl. MJ
The team with the three-time Super Bowl champion linebacker and a six-time Super Bowl champion offensive coordinator whose organization will do whatever it takes to nab that seventh ring. AL
Look at what Mike Vrabel did in just one season. When you take your team from 4-13 to 14-3, from the 30th-ranked offense to the second, from the 22nd-ranked defense to the fourth, I don’t care how weak your schedule is. Yes folks, this is scary, and another New England run seems upon us. Which means you and I having to put up with mouthy Massholes for a really long time. DL
The Patriots’ only clear edge lies in their more experienced coaches. McDaniels has six Super Bowl wins from 10 (10!) trips with the Patriots while Vrabel has rings from the first three of those victories as a player. Hopefully those ties to Foxboro mean they still have Bill Belichick’s number. They have a mine of knowledge from the Brady era with a specialism in winning ugly, which they will definitely have to do to beat Seattle. GS
One bold prediction
Vrabel will create a rules controversy. Game management and understanding of the rulebook are the two advantages the Patriots’ head coach brings on gameday. He sits on the NFL’s rules committee and has a deep knowledge of every nook and cranny. Maybe it’s a wonky formation, a quirky substitution or something those on the outside haven’t imagined. But if there’s a rule to, umm, circumvent while staying legal, Vrabel will find it. OC
A kicker will win MVP. There’s a first for everything, right? In a defensive, low-scoring battle, Jason Myers’s six made field goals (three for more than 55 yards) will be the reason Seattle walk away with the Lombardi. Myers has been perfect this postseason on field goals and extra-point attempts. MJ
The infamous Levi’s Stadium turf monster strikes Darnold, interrupting an otherwise flawless performance from the quarterback, and the Patriots scoop and score because they have all the luck. AL
I’m going with a player who is on the sideline tripping an opponent, confusing officials and leading to a lengthy delay as the refs figure out how to deal with it. It leads to lots of awkward shots of the commissioner in his box and extra commercial time, thrilling the non-football fans at your Super Bowl party. DL
Shaheed is so good the Rams preferred to put the Seahawks on the 35-yard line with a touchback in the NFC championship, rather than risk gifting a light-speed touchdown as they did when the receiver kickstarted Seattle’s epic fourth-quarter comeback in Week 16. Shaheed will cement his status as the trade of the season with another epic homerun. GS
Which of these teams is most likely to be here next year?
The Patriots. The core of the Seahawks roster is more talented than the Patriots, and they have youth on their side. But they also play in the toughest division in the league. That isn’t getting any easier next season. And the quarterback edge goes to New England, too. That raises their year-to-year floor. OC
The Patriots. New England are a young team with a superstar quarterback in the vastly inferior AFC. Perennial conference stalwarts like the Chiefs, Ravens, and even the Bills are on downward trajectories. The Texans and Broncos boast top-tier defenses, but face questions on offense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks could easily finish third in their own division next season. Assuming they reach the postseason, they would have to battle whoever emerges from the powerhouse NFC North. MJ
The Patriots. They’re young, organized and committed to becoming the NFL’s most successful franchise by a considerable distance. What’s more: they’re still members of the AFC’s weakest division. AL
The Patriots, and that’s really bad news for Josh Allen and Buffalo. DL
Both of these teams will be back for the playoffs next season barring any horrible injury luck. But New England’s window is just opening. The easier ride in their division, and the AFC as a whole, make the Patriots the better proposition with another offseason to build around Maye. GS
The final score will be …
Seahawks 27-24 Patriots. The best unit on the field is Seattle’s defense. After that, everything else feels like a wash. The Seahawks pass-rush is relentless and runs deep; they had six different players record at least 35 pressures this year, while no other team had more than four such players. The Patriots’ offensive line is vulnerable – and pass rushers typically decide championship games. It’s going to take a special performance from Maye (and maybe a trick play to rob a possession) to keep the Patriots in it. OC
Seahawks. By a lot. The Seahawks are a top-to-bottom juggernaut that can beat you so many ways. New England’s high blitz-rate success has gotten them this far, but Seattle can beat them so many ways. Quarterback protection? Check. Staunch run game? Check. High-octane passing attack? Check. Seattle’s offense is essentially quarterback proof, especially when your quarterback can compartmentalize his rags-to-riches story. Meanwhile, New England’s offense is not quite quarterback-proof, and Maye’s miscues will hurt the Patriots much more than in their three previous matchups. It’s easy to envision Maye forcing poor throws once blinded by Seattle’s defense, and Vrabel and McDaniels getting too cutesy once down a couple of scores. MJ
Seahawks 27-17 Patriots. Darnold settles down and plays yet another clean playoff game on the way to claiming MVP honors and cementing the signature win of his career at last, in a redemption story that gives critics more reason to pile on the Jets for holding up his progress. Mike Macdonald makes coaching defense sexy again and the loss of Kubiak – reportedly bound for Las Vegas after this game – begins the talent raid on the Seattle coaching staff. The Patriots put up a valiant fight, but Maye’s arm proves too weak in the end – but the loss just sets them up for an epic revenge tour that ends with right back in this same spot next year. AL
Seahawks 17-27 Patriots. Gonzalez wins the matchup with Smith-Njigba, shrinking the options for Darnold, who regresses for all the world to see. It’s not because Darnold isn’t good: he’s an excellent quarterback and a wonderful story, and I’m happy for him, really. He’s just about to face an upstart coaching staff that has the gameplan and the pieces to make Darnold uncomfortable, frustrated and mistake prone. Maye will have just enough to get in the endzone twice, and will be helped by an interception by Gonzalez that he takes to the house. That means we have to see more of postgame Robert Kraft amid the red, white and blue confetti. Yuck. DL
Seahawks 31-32 Patriots. The rise of a team written off in August as 70-1 rank outsiders is a heartwarming tale often lost in a sport dominated by extreme wealth, statistics and hot takes. Yes, their schedule was “easy” – and they even lost to the Raiders – yet here we are. No team with preseason odds longer than 40-1 have won the Super Bowl since Tom Brady’s legendary first win in the 2001 season. Coincidence? GS
