Brumbies, Hurricanes, Reds: Again, this is a bracket – not a position-by-position prediction. The Brumbies had two genuine World XV players by the end of last year – Tom Wright and Len Ikitau – and another bloke (Rob Valetini) in the broader conversation. Throw in Noah Lolesio, and the expectations this year should really be on the Brumbies and Stephen Larkham, not the Waratahs.
The Reds should be another year older and wiser – and more consistent. Tim Ryan’s progress on the wing is definitely worth following through a Wallabies lens, and the Reds look really well-placed at halfback and at lock in particular. A fit Hunter Paisami is critical to their hopes of going deep in the competition: he gives them something different in midfield.
The Hurricanes have been blasted by a series of early-season injuries, which could make for a tricky start, but they will gather a head of steam when it comes to the business end.
Close, but no cigar
Crusaders, Waratahs, Highlanders, Drua: Super Rugby Pacific is a tough competition. It’s certainly tougher than the United Rugby Championship: a 16-track album with two genuine hits and an awful lot of fillers. Any of the Waratahs, Crusaders, Highlanders, Drua could land a finals spot with a decent run on the injury front – or miss the playoffs altogether.
The Waratahs have so many talented players, but they’ll get nothing for free with a big target on their backs and will have to learn the art of winning when not playing well to be title contenders. That takes time, and I’ll be banging this drum all year: if new coach Dan McKellar makes the finals, it will represent a good coaching achievement. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii will obviously be the main attraction, but Tane Edmed is their key man on the back of a stellar NPC campaign in New Zealand.
The Crusaders have a lot to prove this year, but if Ethan Blackadder and/or Scott Barrett get injured, we will see whether suspicions of a soft underbelly in Christchurch are well-founded.
New Drua coach Glen Jackson needs to find the password for reversing their appalling away form, but returning No.10 Caleb Muntz, who missed last year due to injury, is a massive boost for them.
As for the Highlanders, Jamie Joseph has got them fitter during the pre-season, and they have some underappreciated weapons: don’t rule them out.
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Cellar dwellers
Western Force, Moana Pasifika: On their day, both of these teams could knock over anyone outside the big two of the Chiefs and Blues – that’s how even the competition is becoming. But somebody has to bring up the rear and in the case of the Force and Moana, it’s simply a depth issue.
The men from the west have already been whacked by season-ending injuries to props Harry Johnson-Holmes and Harry Hoopert, while Bayley Kuenzle – a standout last year – is also unavailable at present. Simon Cron will be keeping his fingers crossed that crucial figures such as Carlo Tizzano and Darcy Swain stay healthy.
Moana Pasifika will unleash some genuine physicality with the totemic Ardie Savea at No.8, and they have a potential superstar in outside back Kyren Taumoefolau, but finding consistency will be their challenge.
