As soon as Ousmane Dembele was awarded the 2025 Ballon d’Or, the speculation must begin about the 2026 iteration.
We bring you the early odds, with 2025 runner-up Lamine Yamal the early favourite – with Spain the favourites to win the World Cup, which is bound to be a massive factor.
A couple of what we thought were left-field predictions are included.
Who are the favourites to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or?
5=) Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid/England)
Was voted No.23 in 2025 after winning nothing, but came third in 2024 and clearly will be among the leading candidates – when he gets fit -with Real Madrid expected to win trophies under Xabi Alonso. He also figures highly in Thomas Tuchel’s England plans, much to the annoyance of some.
5=) Mohamed Salah (Liverpool/Egypt)
There is a lot of hot air about Salah somehow being robbed of the 2025 Ballon d’Or despite the fact that being Premier League champion and top scorer is not usually enough to be crowned the very best footballer in the world. There’s a lot less chance that he will even be in the conversation next year as those numbers will be near-impossible to match.
5=) Erling Haaland (Manchester City/Norway)
He didn’t win it when he scored a gazillion goals on the way to an actual Treble, so it seems unlikely that he will get the nod in a World Cup year when winning the World Cup with Norway would seem very unlikely.
5=) Harry Kane (Bayern Munich/England)
Can lay claim to being the most consistent goalscorer in world football over the last decade and yet he has never ranked higher than 10th in the Ballon d’Or. Does pure goalscoring butter no parsnips? Bayern probably need to win the Champions League and England the World Cup for this to happen. There’s a reason we deemed this a left-field choice.
5=) Raphinha (Barcelona/Brazil)
Can think himself a tad unlucky to drop as low as fifth in the 2025 rankings after at one stage looking likely to push Dembele all the way. But Barcelona’s ultimate failure in the Champions League was his undoing. And he seems unlikely to win it as long as the impossibly young and talented Lamine Yamal is his Barcelona teammate.
5=) Michael Olise (Bayern Munich/France)
We thought it was a left-field choice but the bookies have obviously done the maths and calculated that the mercurial Frenchman could be central to both Champions League and World Cup glory. He is a very, very special footballer.
4) Vinicius Jnr (Real Madrid/Brazil)
After The Great Huff of 2024 came the 16th-place finish of 2025 and he could hardly complain as he had a decent but unspectacular season and Real Madrid emerged potless. He has at least started the new season under Xabi Alonso in fine fettle.
3) Ousmane Dembele (PSG/France)
It’s certainly not beyond the realms that this PSG side repeats its achievements, and there is also the very good chance that France create waves in the World Cup.
2) Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid/France)
He presumably thought that he would dominate the post-Messi/Ronaldo era, but he is yet to claim his first Ballon d’Or. This season really could provide the absolute perfect storm with Real Madrid surely returning to their trophy-hogging best and France going to the World Cup as one of the favourites.
1) Lamine Yamal (Barcelona/Spain)
“Lamine Yamal is the best player in the world by far. It’s not just because he’s my son, but because he’s the best player in the world.”
That might be so, Lamine Yamal’s dad, but that’s not exactly how this works. He needs to go and win more trophies next season, preferably including the World Cup.
