Australia will win
Even the greats of the Ashes have been weighed down by 143 years of shared history, tradition and controversy. For keen observers of Australia and England, Ashes anxiety can cloud judgments, hopes and dreams. Personally, a heart still bearing the scars from more than a decade spent living behind enemy lines as a once all-conquering Australia failed to tie – let alone win – an Ashes series in England, now insists on managing expectations. But as the ICC’s top two-ranked men’s Test teams prepare for a contest set to be shaped as much by endurance as execution, the head is ready to rule with a quiet confidence that Australia will triumph in a fourth straight Ashes as hosts.
The current Australia outfit falls short of the best the nation has produced just in this century. Series victories in England and India over the past 20 years are notable by their absence. But a well-rounded and mostly experienced side can be trusted to almost always rise to the occasion on home soil. India are the only tourists to claim victory in the past 13 Test series in Australia – and that rival was again vanquished last summer.
England, on the other hand, have not won any of 15 Tests across their past three visits to Australia. The series victory in 2010-11 that preceded the current streak looks more and more like a memorable outlier for England – and a forgettable lowpoint for Australia. Yet to familiarise themselves with local conditions, the tourists curiously found time for only a subdued hitout against their second-tier Lions.
The hosts’ own preparations have hardly gone to plan. Pat Cummins is ruled out of at least the first Test. Josh Hazlewood has joined the captain on the sidelines with an all-too familiar early-season fitness issue. The injuries strip Australia of having arguably the four leading bowlers in the series all stacked on their side. But they can still call on Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland to shoulder the load in Perth, while waiting for one, or perhaps two, of their “Big Three” to return mid-series. Nathan Lyon remains the biggest point of difference as the only spinner across the two teams likely to influence the result.
Australia have longer-term concerns at the top of their batting order. Jake Weatherald is in line to debut and become Usman Khawaja’s seventh opening partner in less than two years. A rejuvenated Marnus Labuschagne is primed to return at first drop. That all depends on Cameron Green being backed to play as a genuine all-rounder. The batting is otherwise as stable as it has been for years. Steve Smith is showing more than just glimpses of his most imperious form and there is reason to hope Travis Head will rediscover his touch as the stakes rise.
England might be out to break with their own past with a view to beating their fiercest rivals at their own game. But for all the Bazball bravado and Ben Stokes-led heroics on home soil, frailties to match each of Australia’s appear to linger not far beneath the surface.
A reliance on the injury-prone Jofra Archer and Mark Wood to lead the pace attack looms as a huge gamble. Archer can bowl in a rhythm ideally-suited to Australian conditions but he has played just two Tests in four years. A fit Wood can send down a sizzling spell but has only half a competitive fixture under his belt since February. It would hardly surprise if Cummins and Hazlewood combine for more overs across the series than the tourists’ frontline duo put together, even with a head start in Perth.
Whether England’s batters live or die by the sword could well sway the series. Stokes remains the dangerman more than capable of turning at least one Test on its head. Harry Brook arrives with an incredible record. Joe Root will surely, finally find a way to reproduce his run-scoring feats on Australian soil. But the side’s Test record against the leading nations in recent years suggests all the bluster and attacking intent is not enough to guarantee positive results.
England will need more hits than misses from their batters and a rare injury-free run for their key bowlers if they are to truly challenge Australia across the next seven weeks. Australia, meanwhile, can take comfort from knowing that performances even just nearing their best tend to be enough on home soil – especially when they play with cool heads as much as a battle-hardened heart. Martin Pegan
England can win
Straight up: even with injuries to Cummins and Hazlewood, it’ll take something special. But we’re entering the festive period and people deserve some optimism. What this will be is the most competitive men’s Ashes series in Australia since 2010-11.
That tour is the golden reference point for England, three innings victories for a side packed with all-timers; their top seven entered that series with a combined total of 74 Test hundreds. Yet the England batting lineup that will play in Perth trumps them on that count, even if the century-less Jacob Bethell gets the nod over Ollie Pope at No 3.
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Much of that is down to Root and his 39 tons, 22 accrued over the last five years. He’s the best Test batter in the world and, unlike the previous two tours, Root doesn’t need to worry about running the whole show. Yes, I know: he hasn’t got a ton in Australia. But Root’s record is far from poor, with eight half-centuries across his last 10 Tests in the country.
Brook, on his first Ashes tour, has obvious middle-order chemistry with Root, the former’s showmanship allowing the latter to calmly accumulate at the other end. Brook impressed in the 2023 series, fronting up with 75 in the must-win chase of the third Test, and what he has accomplished across 30 matches is astonishing, an average of 57.55 combining with a strike rate of 87.52. Is he too wild to succeed in Australia? Rishabh Pant’s flair was pretty handy when India triumphed in 2021. The Yorkshiremen are the pillars of a largely stable batting lineup finely tuned over the last three years. (Let’s ignore their work in Lilac Hill, please.)
England’s bowling attack is short on control, Archer the only squad member with a Test economy rate under three. But each quick has a case to thrive. Archer’s nip is far more dangerous against left-handers and he could have two to play with up top if Weatherald partners Khawaja. The Kookaburra seems to fit Brydon Carse better than the Dukes. Josh Tongue’s wild angles can deny the lower-order revivals that have turned previous Ashes series (think Brad Haddin’s rescue jobs in 2013-14). Stokes is back to being an all-rounder.
Gus Atkinson looked refreshed at the Oval in July after stepping off the international treadmill for a few months, and Matt Potts has the stamina for a five-match slog. If Mark Wood finds full fitness, he can bring the heat immediately. Three months of inaction preceded his lightning opening burst in Leeds two years ago.
Boland is an outstanding replacement for Cummins but the Australia captain’s absence for the opener, at the very least, is significant. Since Cummins returned to Test cricket in 2017 he’s missed just one Test against England (as a Covid close contact) and Australia haven’t lost an Ashes series. No one has caused Root more grief with the red ball. Throw in Hazlewood’s hamstring injury and there is a serious loss of aura.
Australia will welcome back Labuschagne, a proven performer against England but without a Test hundred in two years. Khawaja has enjoyed a stirring final stanza since his Sydney homecoming in 2022 but is battling against time.
Stokes’s body has to stay plastered together, the top order needs to do its part if Root and Brook are to sparkle, Boland’s got to stop cosplaying as SF Barnes. Avoiding defeat in Perth feels necessary, particularly once Starc takes hold of a pink ball in Brisbane. A lot is going to be asked of Root’s off-spin if Shoaib Bashir and Will Jacks are benched. So much has to go England’s way but there is, through the forest of caveats, a path to the urn. Taha Hashim
