Two months ago, Aston Villa were just three points off top spot in the Premier League. They were on a run of 12 wins in 14 games that included victories against Manchester City and Arsenal. Their run of eight consecutive wins in the league was their best since they won 10 in a row in 1910. You wouldn’t have blamed Villa fans for daring to dream about lifting their first league title since 1981.
But success breeds expectation, and expectation carries its own cruel weight. Arsenal tore Villa apart in a 4-1 win in late December and victories have been hard to come by in the new year – they have only won three of their last nine league games. Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea are still below them in the table but the gap is narrowing. With games against United and Chelsea coming in March, the top-three spot Villa have occupied since they beat Wolves in late November suddenly looks in jeopardy. So does their place in the Champions League next season.
They salvaged a point against Leeds on Saturday courtesy of a scrambled 88th-minute finish from Tammy Abraham, but the 1-1 draw at Villa Park did little to disguise the deeper issues. Unai Emery’s side looked anxious and lacked inspiration for long periods of the game. A slow start left them chasing the game and, not for the first time this season, they relied on a set-piece goal to bail them out of trouble. “It’s a good point,” said a clearly relieved Emery. Daniel Farke’s reaction was telling. “It’s crazy that you can come here as a newly promoted side – to one of the title contenders, one of the best teams in this country and in Europe – and you are slightly disappointed with just one point.”
The tension from the fans in Villa Park mirrored the hesitancy on the pitch – a rarity in what has been one of Europe’s most difficult venues to visit in recent years. Villa lost just one home game in the league last season and were on a run of eight straight wins at Villa Park this season before their current slump. And yet they were just minutes away from their fourth defeat in their last six home games in all competitions. For a side that has thrived on controlled possession, high-quality chance creation and adaptability, they looked one-dimensional and mistake-prone.
Villa are lacking a creative pulse and their strikers are suffering. They have scored just one goal from open play in their last five matches. Injuries have had a large part to play in this. Three of their first-choice midfielders – Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans and John McGinn – are out injured.
Tielemans and McGinn have set up 50 chances for teammates this season (only Morgan Rogers has been more creative) so it’s no surprise to see Villa struggle for goals. Without the physicality and control of their absent midfielders, Villa’s buildup play has been fractured and mistakes have crept in. Their replacements, Douglas Luiz and Amadou Onana, were injured earlier in the season and lack the match fitness required to complete games.
The good news for Villa fans is that they have battled back from similar setbacks in the recent past. They failed to score a goal or win a point from their first four league matches this season yet were fighting for the title by Christmas.
And they had to show plenty of character the last time they qualified for the Champions League, in the 2023–24 season. They were challenging for the title at Christmas, having lost just two of their first 18 games. But they struggled in the second half of the campaign, lost seven matches and found them themselves grinding out results. That team held on and finished fourth, booking their place in Europe’s top competition for the first time since the 1982-83 season.
Villa are showing similar grit this season. After Abraham’s last-gasp equaliser against Leeds, Villa have won 19 points from losing positions – more than any other side in the division. They also have the third best defensive record, having conceded just 28 goals in 27 games. And they have one of the most experienced and shrewdest managers in Europe.
It’s also worth remembering that the Premier League is unusually competitive this season. The longest current winning streak in the league is just three matches (Manchester City). All of the top teams – even leaders Arsenal – have gone through periods when they have dug in. Villa’s resilience could prove decisive. Their recent draws against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Leeds might feel like missed opportunities, but those points may prove crucial come May.
March will be a season-defining month for Villa. Their recent form is patchy and their performances have been far from eye-catching. Fluidity in possession has given way to forced passes, and dominance has often been replaced by moments of desperation. But there remains a steel to this side that cannot be ignored. And, crucially given their upcoming games against their fellow Champions League chasers, they have a nice habit of beating the top sides. They have already beaten Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea in the league this season. There are plenty of reasons to go into the run-in with optimism.
This is an article by WhoScored
