It is somehow barely a year until the actual World Cup takes place next summer in North America, so we’ve gone early with the beloved Power Rankings.
Obviously that earliness means these contain even more than their usual share of arbitrary distinctions, but we’ve tried – tried – to be as fair as we can.
Our idea here is that this list reflects the outcome of a possible World Cup and thus the presence of 52(!) names upon it is no accident; it’s our best current stab at identifying the 46 who will make it (or already in some cases already have made it) straight to the finals alongside the six we currently back to contest the inter-confederation play-offs to decide the final two spots available.
So, for instance, 16 UEFA teams will be in the tournament so there are 16 UEFA teams on our list. And so on. Likelihood of qualifying, recent World Cup and continental championship tournament efforts, world rankings, and just our endlessly unreliable gut feel on what kind of impact they might have on the tournament all factor in.
With the various confederations at wildly differing stages of their qualifying process – it’s almost done and dusted in South America, for instance, while there are whole groups of UEFA qualifiers that won’t even start until September, and CONCACAF has a whole group stage for which we don’t yet have a single confirmed qualifier – we really cannot stress enough that these rankings are neither definitive, nor set in stone, nor remotely worth getting worked up about. Okay? Yeah? Okay.
Before proceeding, it will definitely be worth getting up to speed if you’re not already on how precisely the various confederation qualifying processes for the 2026 World Cup work. Because almost all of them are very different now the World Cup is a 48-team beast, and some of them are tremendously convoluted and long-winded.
The 10 teams who are definitely going to be at the World Cup – three hosts, seven confirmed qualifiers – are marked with a (Q) in the below guesswork.
52) New Caledonia
Were one tantalising game away from automatic qualification, but alas for them that one game was inevitably against OFC powerhouses New Zealand and ended in predictable if not yet terminal 3-0 defeat. Are the only current confirmed qualifier for the inter-confederation play-offs that will decide the final two spots at the tournament itself, and thus are even now only two games away from qualification, but will again be the rankest of outsiders to pull off a madness and actually reach the World Cup.
51) Haiti
Lost 3-1, 7-0 and 4-1 to Italy, Poland and Argentina in their only previous World Cup back in 1974 but a flawless start to qualifying and the new format offers real hope of a play-off spot at least.
50) Honduras
Qualified in 2010 and 2014 and are a tentative early pick for an inter-confederation play-off spot here after starting well in qualification.
49) Gabon
A way to go before anything is confirmed, but Gabon are currently three points clear as the best second-placed team across Africa’s nine qualifying groups and that puts them in pole position for the inter-confederation spot that goes with it.
48) Qatar
While we don’t currently have Qatar down as an automatic qualifier from a tough-to-call scrap for Asia’s last two automatic places in North America next year, their victory in the 2023 Asian Cup means they are our current pick for Asia’s spot in the inter-confederation play-offs. And they would absolutely be among the favourites should they get there.
47) Venezeula
Have never qualified for the World Cup before and almost certainly won’t get there directly this time either, but are currently best placed to be CONMEBOL’s representative – and thus instantly one of the favourites – at the inter-confederation play-offs next March.
46) Jamaica
Haven’t made it back to the World Cup since France 98 but have a glorious opportunity this time around and have started well in qualifying.
45) Iraq
Currently have our tentative backing as the likeliest to grab the eighth and last guaranteed spot from Asia, which if we’re right would force both Qatar and Saudi Arabia into a battle for just one inter-confederation play-off spot.
44) UAE
Cannot now qualify directly from the third stage of Asia’s convoluted qualifying competition but look best equipped of those heading for the next round where the final two automatic places as well as the inter-confederation play-off spot will be decided.
43) Panama
It’s so early in CONCACAF’s qualification process for the three of their six spaces not taken up by the co-hosts that a lot of guesswork and falling back on FIFA rankings is taking place here, but Panama have qualified for the second stage of qualifying.
42) New Zealand (Q)
Chris Wood and co. are among the biggest winners of the expanded World Cup format, one that for the first time hands the best team in the OFC a ticket straight to the World Cup rather than a ticklish play-off against Uruguay or some such. Until and unless Australia come crawling back, that ticket is almost certain to go New Zealand’s way as it has this time following a 3-0 win over New Caledonia.
41) Czech Republic
No World Cup finals appearance since 2006 is an eyebrow-raiser, but they surely have every chance this time having helped themselves to six points before Croatia even got involved. Also almost certain recipients of a Nations League-based place in the play-offs regardless; if any four of Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England, Norway and Wales finish in the top two of their respective groups – and that first five should all absolutely p*ss it – the Czechs have their safety net.
40) Bosnia and Herzegovina
Every chance of a second World Cup appearance since independence after making a flying start to their qualifying group.
39) Ghana
Still have a bit of work to do to seal qualification after a 1-0 defeat to neared group rivals Comoros, but if and when that’s secured a squad packed with players boasting top-tier club experience in Europe will have eyes on another run to the knockout stages to go with those from 2006 and 2010.
38) Cameroon
Far from certain to qualify but should sneak past Cape Verde with an easier set of games in September and October to take the automatic qualification spot in that group and maintain their record of missing only two World Cup finals since 1986.
37) Uzbekistan (Q)
The expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams was always going to offer opportunities, and Uzbekistan were among the first to grab theirs.
They have qualified for every Asian Cup since independence but never before now a World Cup. They are also the first double-landlocked country to reach a World Cup. Time for Liechtenstein to pull their finger out.
36) Jordan (Q)
Another first-time qualifier from the Asian section, while a run to their first ever Asian Cup final in 2023 shows they are not to be lightly dismissed.
35) Sweden
Likely to vie with Switzerland for the top two spots in UEFA qualifying Group B and have an embarrassment of post-Zlatan riches in attacking areas where they can call upon Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Dejan Kulusevski.
Failure to qualify for both Qatar 2022 and Euro 2024 is a worry, though.
34) Poland
When it comes to major tournaments, Robert Lewandowski and the lads can generally be relied upon to qualify but also to quietly slip away once things get serious.
Haven’t made it beyond the group stage in four of the last five Euros – indeed, haven’t won a game at the finals since reaching the last eight in 2016 – and despite qualifying for four of the last six World Cups have been straight home after the group stage in three of them.
Decent shot at qualification again having played two, won two in a group containing the potentially flaky Netherlands. A play-off spot at the very least awaits.
33) Ivory Coast
Will need to emerge unscathed from a pivotal qualification clash with Gabon in September to remain on course for automatic qualification and a first World Cup finals appearance since 2014.
32) Paraguay
Haven’t reached the World Cup finals since a quarter-final appearance in 2010 but should finish safely inside the top six in South American qualifying. A humbling experience at last year’s Copa America in the USA isn’t ideal major tournament prep, mind.
31) Switzerland
Two things we know about Switzerland at the World Cup. They qualify, and then they get out of the group, and then they go out in the last 16. That’s been the case at five of the last eight. It’s not quite Mexico levels, but it’s the closest Europe can manage.
A four-team qualifying group containing Sweden and Slovenia is ticklish, though.
30) Algeria
One of those countries that feel like they’ve been at more World Cups than is actually the case having only actually been at two finals since the 1980s. They did reach the last 16 when last getting there in 2014, and look pretty nailed on to get through a kind CAF group into this expanded tournament.
29) Ukraine
Should finish second behind France in their yet-to-begin qualification group, at which point all they need to do is simply put behind them a record of five play-off defeats in their last seven World Cup qualifying campaigns. The one time they made it to the finals – eventually reaching the quarter-finals in 2006 – they topped their group.
Desperately unlucky at Euro 2024 where they finished bottom of a group in which all four teams finished with four points. Ukraine’s record was better than Slovenia’s, who reached the last 16 as one of the four-best third-placed teams.
28) Senegal
Quarter-finalists in 2002 and knocked out by England in the last 16 four years ago, Senegal are in a tough battle with DR Congo for a qualification place but would be expected to make an impression should they make it to North America.
27) Italy
It is utterly absurd that by the time of the World Cup it will be two decades since Italy played a knockout game at the game’s biggest event. That knockout game was the 2006 final.
Successive group-stage failures in 2010 and 2014 have been followed by mortifying failures even to reach the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.
And there are no guarantees, even with the expanded format, that a 12-year wait for one of the tournament’s most successful ever sides won’t extend to 16 with Norway looking a huge threat in Group I and plenty of unpleasant-looking play-off opponents looming should it come to that. It has already cost Luciano Spalletti his job.
26) Tunisia
World Cup stalwarts who look set to hold off surprise packages Namibia in their CAF qualifying group and embark on another bid to get beyond the group stage for the first time in the finals themselves.
25) South Africa
Haven’t made it back to the World Cup since hosting in 2010, but finished third at AFCON two years ago and are overwhelming favourites to claim a spot in North America by winning their qualifying group; they are five points clear with four to play.
24) Costa Rica
Qualified for the next stage of qualifying with ease and boast by far the most compelling recent World Cup pedigree of any CONCACAF nation going through the qualification process, having made it to five of the last six tournaments, and at this early stage they are an easy pick as both likeliest CONCACAF qualifier and likeliest to make some kind of impression on the tournament if/when they get there.
23) Norway
An inexplicably miserable major tournament record having last reached the World Cup in 1994 and not even getting themselves to a Euros since 2000.
But a solid squad sprinkled with plenty of stardust thanks to your Erling Haalands and Martin Odegaards have a great chance of putting that right. They have won three from three in qualifying, including a 3-0 win over Italy.
22) Canada (Q)
Automatic qualifiers with the first objective being to improve on a World Cup finals record that currently reads played six, lost six after group-stage exits in 1986 and 2022. A run to the 2024 Copa America semi-finals in which their only defeats came against Argentina offers plenty of hope.
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21) Australia
Have qualified for the last five World Cups and a last-gasp win over Japan leaves them almost certain to join them as direct qualifiers from AFC Group C barring a huge and unlikely defeat to Saudi Arabia. They are assured at least of a chance at one of the last two Asian qualification spots in the next round.
Reached the last 16 in Qatar, but haven’t been beyond the quarter-finals of the Asian Cup since winning it in 2015 in Ange Postecoglou’s second year in charge. It’s what he does, mate.
20) Iran (Q)
Have qualified impressively for a fourth consecutive World Cup and now bidding to go beyond the group stage for the first time. Semi-final runs in the last two Asian Cups offer reason for hope.
19) Colombia
Missed out on Qatar 2022 after finishing sixth in South American qualifying. May well finish sixth again, but the good news is that this time that will be enough to make it, and their three-point cushion over seventh-placed Venezeula is compelling.
Reached the quarter-finals and last 16 in 2014 and 2018 and finished third and second in the last two editions of the Copa America to highlight tournament know-how that should not be lightly dismissed.
18) South Korea (Q)
Haven’t missed a World Cup since 1982 and have now confirmed qualification from AFC Group C.
17) Egypt
A strong contender for biggest World Cup underachievers given they are seven-time champions of Africa with a long and deep football heritage who have nevertheless made it to only three World Cup finals, with a best of the last 16 (when it was in fact then the first round) back in 1934. Went out in the group stage in 1990 and 2018 but Mo Salah and co are now almost certainties for a fourth go on the biggest stage with a five-point lead over Burkina Faso on CAF qualifying Group A.
16) Belgium
The golden generation is fading from view but they remain ranked inside the world’s top eight and will be warm favourites to qualify from UEFA Group J even after an opening draw against North Macedonia.
15) Croatia
Finalists and semi-finalists in the last two World Cups which commands obvious respect, but an ageing squad and tough-looking qualifying path in a group where both Czech Republic and Montenegro had six-point headstarts – and Croatia have no Nations League-based safety net either – means a relatively lowly spot for now given that pedigree.
A 5-1 win over the Czechs puts them in an incredible position.
14) Mexico (Q)
Finally ended their streak of seven straight last-16 World Cup exits in Qatar, but not in the way they would have wanted. Qualified automatically as hosts, and did win the CONCACAF Gold Cup in 2023 before failing to get beyond the group stage of the 2024 Copa America.
13) USA (Q)
Have reached the knockout stages at five of the last eight World Cups and would expect to at least match the last-16 effort from the last time they hosted in 1994.
12) Netherlands
Narrowly beaten by Argentina in the quarters in Qatar and somehow beaten by England in the Euros semi-finals, so recent tournament pedigree is solid.
We worried about them starting their qualifying campaign late but a 2-0 win in Finland leaves them with group leaders Poland in their sights.
11) Japan (Q)
First qualified for the World Cup in 1998 and haven’t missed one since. Won’t miss this one either having powered through the convoluted Asian qualification process in style and with a favourable draw next summer will absolutely be contenders to improve on their previous best of a last-16 exit.
10) Uruguay
Already through to the 2030 World Cup as a ‘commemorative match host’ and nearly there in terms of 2026 qualification, sitting fifth in the CONMEBOL table as they look to put a disappointing 2022 World Cup behind them.
9) Ecuador
Have only once made it beyond the World Cup group stage – in 2006, when they were narrowly beaten by England in the last 16 – but are second in CONMEBOL qualifying and near-certainties to reach a fifth World Cup in the last seven, having also reached the quarter-finals in three of the last four Copa Americas.
8) Morocco
One of the great stories of the last World Cup, where they became the first African side to reach the last four, and with a nine-point lead in their qualifying group sit on the brink of becoming the first African side to confirm their place for 2026.
7) Brazil
These are not glorious times for world football’s most decorated nation having made just one World Cup semi-final since 2002, and even that is one they would rather not talk about too much, thanks all the same.
A quarter-final exit at last year’s Copa America and none-too-convincing qualifying campaign don’t exactly indicate all is about to change, but they are still almost certain to qualify and are still Brazil. And now they have Carlo Ancelotti and his eyebrows.
6) Germany
Something strange has happened to Germany in recent tournament cycles. The old rule was that no matter how unconvincing they might look between majors, you could famously Never Rule Out The Germans when the serious business of tournament ball began.
The new rule is that no matter how good they look between majors, you simply cannot trust a really exciting squad of players to deliver when the big tournaments come around. Those nagging doubts haven’t been helped by losing from 1-0 up against Portugal in the Nations League semi-finals.
By the time they (almost certainly) arrive in North America next summer it will be 10 years since they reached a World Cup or Euros semi-final, and that’s just plain nutty.
5) England
A formline through their last four major tournaments of SF-RU-QF-RU is one that has to be respected even if the specifics of just how England did it remain something of a puzzle involving an uncanny gift for landing on the right side of the draw every single time.
Have a clear laser focus on this tournament under one-and-done coach Thomas Tuchel, while also being the biggest European nation to get the qualification bid under way thus far, with three wins from three, and as the fifth-ranked Nations League group winner after their dalliance with the second tier are almost certainly already in the UEFA play-offs anyway even if they contrive to finish outside the top two of their section.
4) Portugal
For at least the fifth time, Portugal are preparing themselves for Cristiano Ronaldo’s major tournament farewell because surely this has to be the last one, right? Not even with Argentina does one player so dominate the attention, but Portugal have impressed again in the Nations League where they have beaten Germany and Spain to emerge as champions with Ronaldo still very much their main man.
Their recent major-tournament record is spotty, though. They will surely qualify as they always do, having reached every World Cup and Euros this century, but they haven’t been beyond the quarter-finals in four attempts since sh*thousing their way to Euro 2016 title glory riding a wave of draws.
And we all know Ronaldo has scored zero proper goals for Portugal.
3) France
Winners and runners-up in the last two World Cups, narrowly beaten by Spain in the Euro semi-finals, and third-place finishers in the Nations League. It’s some solid tournament pedigree for a team that has all manner of qualification safety nets they are unlikely to require.
2) Spain
Won the Euros in thrilling style and possess a young, deep squad that should only improve, though they did lose the Nations League final to Portugal. Won’t even begin a short World Cup qualifying campaign until September with a play-off spot already guaranteed in the wildly unlikely event they should need it. They are the current favourites with the bookies.
1) Argentina (Q)
No point overcomplicating things at this stage. Argentina are the current holders of both the World Cup and the Copa America and are by a wide margin the likeliest winner among the teams already confirmed to be part of next summer’s festivities.
Concerns around an ageing squad’s ability to negotiate an even longer tournament are valid, but right now are concerns for another day.
