Key events
Teams in brief: no Mainoo, so Ugarte returns
Just when a first start of the season was beckoning to him, Kobbie Mainoo has picked up a minor injury, so he’s not even on the bench and Manuel Ugarte has a shot at redemption. Ruben Amorim also brings back Patrick Dorgu, which suggests he’s sticking with his much-disliked formation.
Pre-match reading: United
Could anyone make sense of the 4-4 farrago last Monday? Probably not, but I had a go for United Writing, the Substack newsletter Rob Smyth and I started for fellow supporters sufferers.
Pre-match reading: Villa
If you’d like to hear more about Unai Emery’s winning streak, Jonathan Wilson is waiting for you with his usual wisdom.
Preamble
Afternoon everyone and welcome to today’s big match – in fact the only match in all four (men’s) divisions in England. On the shortest day of the year, the authorities have decided to put on the shortest programme possible. And the fixture they have picked is one that finished 0-0 last season.
Still, it could be very tasty this time. Aston Villa have won nine games in a row in all competitions. Manchester United, with only one competition to worry about, have won just twice in their past seven outings. When they face these opponents, though, United begin to resemble the force they once were. Villa have even managed to make Alex Ferguson’s successors look good: in 18 league games against United since 2013-14, Villa have won two, drawn four and lost 12.
Today they will have momentum on their side. And a much more capable manager. Unai Emery wins 55 per cent of his games with Villa; Ruben Amorim wins 39 per cent of his with United. You can see the gulf between them in the way each has handled his club’s brightest young thing. While Emery has made a maestro out of Morgan Rogers, Amorim tends to see Kobbie Mainoo as someone to be spurned or scorned.
United knew they would be missing Bryan Mbeumo and Amad today, because of Afcon. But, thanks to a silly foul the other night that led to a suspension (and a goal from a free kick), they will also be without Casemiro.
Amorim appears to have three options for a replacement, none of which he fancies. (1) Place some faith in Mainoo, who – as Amorim himself acknowledged – played well against Bournemouth, bringing some composure to a game that had turned into an office party. (2) Go back to Manuel Ugarte, who has a habit of being on the field when United fall apart. (3) Insult both of them by playing somebody out of position, such as Lisandro Martinez, who is yet to start as he makes his way back from a nine-month injury. There could even be a (4): ditch the third centre-back, play Mainoo and Ugarte as a pair in the pivot, and let Bruno Fernandes return to his natural habitat further forward.
This is Amorim’s first visit to Villa Park. According to Opta, he’s three times more likely to lose than to win (57pc to 20). But it often suits his team to be the underdogs and they’ve been better away from home lately, with three wins and two draws since the beginning of October. Villa’s flawless consistency has not brought dominance: their last seven wins have come by a single goal. And it’s Christmas, so anything can happen.
