Win in Abu Dhabi and hope for carnage: how Oscar Piastri can still win the F1 world title

If Oscar Piastri is going to break through for Australia’s first Formula One driver title in 45 years, it’s going to be the hard way.

The McLaren driver enters this weekend’s final round in Abu Dhabi trailing teammate Lando Norris and Red Bull’s four-time reigning champion Max Verstappen in the standings.

The 24-year-old has had to overcome a curse from a fast food chain and dubious enforcement of the so-called papaya rules just to stay in the mix for the title, and his team were to blame for a strategy error that cost him victory last weekend in Qatar.

But a window for Piastri remains open, however narrow, for what would be one of the most unlikely final-round championship comebacks in Formula One history.

Already 2025 is the first season to have three or more drivers still in the title race heading into the final round since 2010, when Sebastian Vettel secured his first of four titles.

That year Mark Webber – now coincidentally Piastri’s manager – and Fernando Alonso were the top-ranked drivers entering the final round, but finished well behind Vettel, who made up a 15-point deficit to clinch a memorable championship.

Piastri is currently 16 points behind Norris, and four behind Verstappen, and needs to finish first or second simply to earn enough points to eclipse Norris’s total heading into the race. Then he needs to rely on his McLaren colleague and Verstappen underperforming or failing to finish.

A Piastri victory would be enough for him to claim the driver’s title as long as Norris finishes no better than sixth. Second place for the Australian would have his title aspirations relying on an even more improbable set of results.

Norris has placed below sixth only four times this season. He failed to finish in Canada after a collision with Piastri, and in the Netherlands due to a late oil leak. The Bristol-born driver was also disqualified alongside his teammate in Las Vegas due to excessive wear on the underside of the car.

Verstappen looms as an even more imposing challenger, given he has won five of the past eight rounds to surge into championship contention. He also has form in Abu Dhabi, having won four successive races there from 2020.

That run of dominance in the UAE only ended last year during a race marred by a first corner incident. Verstappen clipped Piastri, sending him into a spin that pushed him to the back of the pack in a miserable day that ended in 10th position. The contact also saw the Dutch driver tumble down the order, before he finished sixth behind runaway leader Norris.

A similar degree of carnage, or some Sonny Hayes-like help, appears to be the only path left for a Piastri championship.