Key events
The Premier League table
“The Smiths?” muses Peter Oh. “Well, if Newcastle win today, Arsenal fans will probably start humming I Know It’s Over.”
Let’s be honest: if Newcastle win today, Arsenal fans won’t be short of Smiths songs that capture the mood.
Bayern Munich, the team Arsenal may yet face in the Champions League final, have been involved in some Bundesliga hijinks this afternoon.
Some exclusive transfer news involving the team directly below Arsenal in the table
Manchester United have identified Éderson, the Atalanta midfielder, as a potential recruit to fill the gap left by Casemiro’s summer departure, with the 26-year-old Brazilian valued at €40m-50m (£35m-£45m).
United’s director of football, Jason Wilcox, is an admirer of Éderson and is monitoring the Brazil international after drawing up a list of potential replacements for Casemiro.
Jonathan Liew begins his new series of Smiths-themed columns with a look at life in north London.
(Next week, he asks whether the ghost of Troubled Jô is haunting Everton’s centre-forwards.)
Newcastle’s formation could be the usual 4-3-3, something like this: Pope; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Bruno Guimaraes, Tonali, Ramsey; J Murphy, Osula, Willock.
Team news
Ben White replaces Cristhian Mosquera at right-back, Arsenal’s only change from their defeat at the Etihad. Bukayo Saka is on a star-studded subs bench.
Eddie Howe has made five changes in an attempt to end Newcastle’s poor run of form. Nick Pope, Dan Burn, Joe Willock, Jacob Murphy and Bruno Guimaraes come in for Aaron Ramsdale, Tino Livramento (injured), Lewis Hall, Anthony Elanga and Harvey Barnes.
Newcastle’s side includes five recognised central midfielders. They often switch to a back three away to the top teams, but I’m not entirely sure how that would work with this XI. Answers on a pigeon.
Arsenal (4-3-3) David Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Madueke, Havertz, Eze.
Subs: Arrizabalaga, Mosquera, Saka, Jesus, Martinelli, Gyokeres, Trossard, Lewis-Skelly, Dowman.
Newcastle (possible 3-4-2-1) Pope; Thiaw, Botman, Burn; J Murphy, Bruno Guimaraes, Tonali, Miley; Ramsey, Willock; Osula.
Subs: Ramsdale, Trippier, Hall, Wissa, Barnes, Elanga, Woltemade, A Murphy, Neave.
Referee Sam Barrott.
We’ll have the team news shortly. In the meantime, here’s some positive squad news for Arsenal fans.
Preamble
The Little Increasingly Hefty Book of Football Cliches tells us the Premier League is a marathon, not a sprint. Wrong! These days, it tends to be both. In his first spell at Chelsea, Jose Mourinho unwittingly shared the groundbreaking insight that points won in August counted the same as those earned in April and May. Aspiring champions emerged from the blocks accordingly and it became normal for the best teams to reach 90 points in a 38-game season. On one glorious occasion, they hit three figures.
The best Arsenal and Manchester City can manage this year is 85 points. They haven’t been good enough to sprint all season – at times it’s been an old-fashioned slog – but now it’s time for one of the teams to open their legs andir class. The title race is effectively a five-game mini-league, with Arsenal and City level on points and goal difference. City are top of the table because they have scored three goals more than Arsenal.
Both teams have won league titles by the barest of margins. The impossible drama of Michael Thomas and Sergio Aguero’s goals in 1989 and 2012 respectively has understandably obscures some of the detail. City beat Manchester United on goal difference when Aguero scored against QPR. And when Thomas flicked the ball over Bruce Grobbelaar with indecent serenity, Boring Boring Arsenal finish above Liverpool on goals scored.
It may not come down to goal difference this year, never mind goals scored. Both teams have tough away games in the run-in; the chances are one of them will drop points. Equally, it should surprise nobody if they win the lot If that happens, popcorn sales will go through the roof because we have never seen that kind of extended goal-difference shoot-out in an English title race.
It would be negligent for either team to ignore the table and coast through the last quarter of a game in which they are, say, 2-0 up. But it’s an awkward situation: to think of goal difference before a game can imply or reveal complacency, and it goes against the footballer’s sworn promise – one that would never, ever register on a lie detector – to stay humble.
The attitude to goal difference may also be shaped by recent form. Right now, Arsenal just need to beat Newcastle at the Emirates to keep their destiny in their own hands and end a short but punishing run of two straight defeats. If they drop points tonight, the Book of Football Cliches will throw up a different metaphor: the one about the horse race.
Kick off 5.30pm.
